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If anyone looks at previous roundtables we've done at MMATorch.com, they'll notice that I was quite upset that Frankie Edgar got a chance at BJ Penn over Gray Maynard. However, those who have responded to my previous article are right, I did fail to address one aspect of matchmaking that gets heavy criticism. The actual system of who gets the title shot wasn't really discussed in depth by me in initial column, so let me do so here. In the case of Frankie Edgar getting a title shot over Gray Maynard, I agree with you that Maynard should have gotten the title shot first, however there are some key factors to look at.
First, going into the fight with Nate Diaz, it was suggested that the title shot was Gray Maynard's to lose. Both Edgar and Maynard were being considered for the title shot in Abu Dhabi against BJ Penn. Edgar stumbled a bit against Matt Veach in the first round before getting the finish in the second round. So really, if Maynard wanted to lock up the title shot, he should have had a dominant performance against Diaz. He did not. He picked up a split decision, and to be honest, Nate Diaz did more damage on the feet. The fight was all boxing with no kicks, no takedowns, and no clinch fighting to speak of. So you would think you could just go off the numbers and pick a winner. FightMetric reports that Diaz landed 77 out of 259 punches on the melon of Gray Maynard. Maynard landed just 52 out of 153 strikes. So really, how did he win? It was an unimpressive victory, and to be honest, if you want to analyze who gets a title shot, you have to look at more than just who has beaten whom. You have to watch the fights.
The second issue which leans towards Edgar is his ability to finish fights. Now, you can argue that the UFC is looking for the more "exciting" fighter, but by the same token, I can argue they are looking for the more skilled fighter. Make no mistake about it, finishing a fight is an impressive display of skill, and will leap frog you over other challengers. Maynard hasn't finished a fight in some time, and is coming off two consecutive split decisions. The method in which you win is important. Not for excitement purposes, but the way you win is important for skill evaluation.
Look at Jon Fitch. He won a series of unanimous decision victories, a lot of them in unimpressive fashion. He eventually got up to Georges St. Pierre, and was demolished by the more skilled champion. He blew him out of the water and pitched a 5 round shut out. Fitch had nothing to offer because he was unable to contain and control St. Pierre in the way that he was his previous opponents. After the loss, Fitch rattled off 3 consecutive wins in his usual fashion. He's shown no real growth since his loss to St. Pierre, who is still a dominating champion; no skill improvements, so despite his wins, he's not in the immediate discussion for a title shot. It isn't because he's not exciting, but because of all of that someone like Paul Daley, who knocks people's heads off, commands much more attention and is a more serious threat than Fitch.
If you look at who they've fought, Edgar has faced more well known fighters, beaten them, and finished a few of them and even handed top contender Tyson Griffin his first loss. Maynard beat Edgar, but that was two years ago. It was likely one of the factors, but it was just one of them.
The final and most important issue as to why Edgar got the nod was the timing of the Abu Dhabi card. Gray Maynard did not want to fight BJ Penn in Abu Dhabi. Frankie Edgar did. Maynard himself has made no claim to be on that card over Edgar, and even said that it was almost impossible for him to defeat Diaz, get right back into camp, and then be 100% ready to face BJ Penn by April. That is a huge factor in why people get title shots over other people. Scheduling.
Look at the Brock Lesnar example. Lesnar got a title shot over Fabricio Werdum, yes. However, Couture's return to the UFC was unexpected. As far as the UFC knew going in, Mir and Nogueira were going to fight for the only UFC Heavyweight Championship still with the company in December, and Werdum was going to get a tune up fight at UFC 90 against unknown Junior Dos Santos. The UFC had already booked these fights. They were contractually obligated to take place, the fighters were prepared for them, and Randy Couture wanted a big fight to stay active. Well, everyone got what they wanted, and Brock Lesnar got picked to fight Couture.
What I did touch on in my column was that the system works. And it does. Cream always rises to the top. If these fighters deserve to be on top, they get there. Gray Maynard is still a top contender, and if he keeps winning, he'll get a title shot. If Brock Lesnar didn't belong in the cage with Couture, or Mir for that matter, he would have been weeded out.
The important thing to remember is, whoever the UFC Lightweight Champion is, he is going to have to fight Maynard eventually should he keep winning. And that is why the system works, and why no one can come up with a better system.
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