On the eve of UFC 104 I don't like this card any more than I did when it was first announced. I love the main event, but its not gonna sell pay-per-views and the rest of the card is as weak as a weak European card. Nonetheless, I'll watch, and I'll probably enjoy. More importantly its time to begin my quest to get MY belt back. The prediction belt, that is. I've given up on ever being a successful gambler. I press on though.
Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve
Gormley makes his debut against the freakishly lanky Struve. He was originally slated to take on Ben Rothwell, but when Shane Carwin was pulled out of his fight with Cain Velasquez and put into the title fight at UFC 106, Rothwell was bumped up to the co-main event on this card against Velasquez and Struve was inserted to welcome Gormley. Got all that? Gormley's best strategy here would be to keep things standing and rattle Struve's baby-faced dome. Instead I think the bright lights will cause him to resort to his wrestling background. Once it hits the mat, Struve will be in his comfort zone and can use all twenty feet of limbs to tie Gormley in a knot.
Prediction: Struve by submission in round 1
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan
I really have no idea what to expect from this fight. Both fighters are so young that they might be completely different than the last time we saw them. Going off of previous experience, I like Kingsbury to wing power shots as Al-Hassan stands there with his head straight up in the air. Either that, or one of them wins by gogoplata. Either way.
Prediction: Kingsbury by TKO in round 1
Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons
This one is pretty straightforward. Rivera is gonna come in looking to punch a hole in Kimmons head, and Kimmons will look to take one of Rivera's body parts home with him. Despite a wealth of experience, Kimmons is still young and has time to get better. Rivera? Not so much. This is a case of two fighters going in opposite directions. Give me the one on the ascent.
Prediction: Kimmons by submission in round 1
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
What if I told you this was my darkhorse pick for Fight of the Night? You'd call me a liar, huh? Well regardless of the fact that you'd be correct, that isn't very nice. These are probably two of my top ten fighters I least like to watch. They're both basically bullies inside the cage, which I guess isn't the worst fight strategy. It'll all come down to who the stronger fighter is and who can impose their will. If its a clinch war, advantage Okami. If its a wrestling match, advantage Sonnen. In a mild upset, I'll take Sonnen to give Okami a taste of his own medicine and put him on his back for three rounds. Should be riveting.
Prediction: Sonnen by decision
Antoni Hardonk vs. Pat Barry
I can't wait for this one. Its guaranteed to be a blast...unless Hardonk realizes his biggest advantage is on the mat. Its a scary thought, but if Hardonk can take Barry down, Barry is virtually eliminated from winning the fight. I think both fighters will come out determined to give the fans what they paid to see and that's where Barry will pull the upset. Don't ask me how it'll happen. It just will.
Prediction: Barry by TKO in round 1
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Bader's momentum seems to have come to a grinding halt following his win over Carmelo Marrero and subsequent knee injury. For a TUF winner, there just doesn't seem to be the usual hype surrounding him. He gets one of the coveted "Spike Prelims" spots, but most in his situation would be on the main card. He's also getting a pretty tough draw here. Eric Schafer is as tough as they come, and if he can somehow end up in top position in this fight, it'll mean big trouble for Bader. With the difference in wrestling pedigrees, it'll be nearly impossible for Schafer to plant Bader on his back with a takedown. If he can pull guard, however, a sweep from the bottom is much less than impossible. I'm apparently banking on that happening because I'm picking Schafer in the upset.
Prediction: Schafer by submission in round 2
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Too much is being made of the size difference between the two. Anthony Johnson isn't cutting down from 220 to 170 because that's what he walks around at. More likely, he's having to do it because he got a little fat in between fights. Happens all the time. Will he eventually make the move to middleweight? Absolutely. But that's because he's naturally about 200lbs. If he honestly walked around at 220 he'd be a decent sized light-heavyweight. No way he's a light-heavyweight.
The bigger story of this fight is how is going to be a carbon copy of the Yoshida-Koscheck fight. Yoshida obviously wants this fight on the ground, but he'll have to get his arms around Johnson to make that happen. Not gonna happen. Johnson will tee off on a pretty good fighter and put him out cold in the opening stanza.
Prediction: Johnson by TKO in round 1
Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
It was refreshing to see Stevenson get back to what made him a lightweight title contender in his last fight against Nate Diaz. He took Diaz down and overpowered on the mat. He should be doing that to everyone. Especially guys like Spencer Fisher, whose only chance to win is by getting into a stand-up war. I think Stevenson stays smart for the second fight in a row and begins the slow climb back up the ladder.
Prediction: Stevenson by submission in round 2
Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau
This is easily the fight I'm least looking forward to on the main card. I've just grown tired of lightweight fights that seem action packed, but never come remotely close to being finished. I don't need every fight to end in a finish, but in order to get roped in to it emotionally, I at least need to believe a finish is possible. No way, no how does one of these fighters finish the other. Tibau is too big and too strong, but also to passive and defensive. Neer is (surprisingly) most dangerous off his back, but he's going up against an opponent who's too good to get submitted here. Tibau will take this fight down, control from the top without doing much damage, and fend off about twenty submission attempts. Rinse and repeat.
Prediction: Tibau by decision
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
I'm tempted to call the upset here, but I'm a believer in Cain Velasquez. Do I think he's ready for a title shot? No, but I think he will be by this time next year. If his skills ever catch up to his heart and cardio he'll be unstoppable. I don't think he can finish Rothwell here, but he can grind out a decision much the same way he did against Cheick Kongo, only he won't be knocked silly at the start of every round. It should be a good fight, and a good test for Velasquez, but I'll take talent and heart over experience and grit in this one.
Prediction: Velasquez by decision
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
Everyone wants to know if the Shogun from 2005 will be back in form tomorrow night. Let me be the first to say, even if he is, it won't matter. Machida is one of the best fighters of our time, and he's just now getting the recognition. Anyone who thinks Machida hasn't fought that great of competition, I simply say: Rashad Evans, Thiago Silva, Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou, Nakamura, Rich Franklin, Stephan Bonnar, and BJ Penn. For a guy who hasn't even had the chance to fight the Shogun's, Wanderlei's, and Rampage's of the world, that's a pretty damn strong resume.
I think Shogun will put up a better fight than most (might might connect on three or four jabs), but Machida is just better right now. Submissions won't come into play because Shogun won't be able to get Machida to the ground. Machida will run circles around Shogun (literally) and frustrate him for three rounds while the damage accumulates. At at some point in the third, Machida will stun Shogun and that will be all she wrote. People criticize Machida for being a boring fight, but when he smells blood, he goes in for the finish harder than just about any fighter around. Tomorrow will be no different than any other fight Machida has ever had. His hand will be raised in victory, and he'll head back to his hotel room with nary a scratch on him.
Prediction: Machida by TKO in round 3
Fake Money:
$400 on Tibau
$200 on Schafer
$200 on Struve
$200 on Sonnen
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