FACEBOOK TWITTER RSS APP PODCAST Opinion & Analysis : Staff Columnists BENT: UFC 102 Previews and Predictions - Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira

Aug 28, 2009 - 4:45:09 PM
By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist
This is a special main event. Two of the greatest heavyweights in the history of our sport will be squaring off in the main event of UFC 102. The problem is that these two men are not quite what they once were; and realistically, neither is in the title picture. Going one step further, a loss by either one is likely to signal the end of their careers, at least in terms of them being relevant and more than just a big name. Neither of these men strike me as the type to hang around and join Ken Shamrock's club, so this could very well represent the last time to see either of them in a bout which actually matters.

Randy Couture is an all-time great and his accomplishments are likely to never be matched again. Truth is that most of us begin to find that climbing flights of stairs kicks our ass, and here is Couture at 46 years of age and still going somewhat strong. It would probably behoove him to drop down to 205 lbs. and make a final run towards something there, but who am I or anyone else for that matter to tell "Captain America" what he should do?

Who am I to tell Nogueira what to do, either? Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was the interim UFC Heavyweight Champion until Frank Mir dismantled him back in December. We all imagined that we had seen the very best version of Mir while not really considering if Nogueira's style had caught up to him. What Nogueira does against Couture will tell us if Mir beat a great fighter in December or merely scored a win over a once great fighter whose card had been punched out.

Randy Couture's career record stands at 16 wins against 9 losses with 7 wins coming by KO and 2 by way of submission. On the surface, it doesn't appear as if he has fought in too many wars but he didn't begin his MMA career until the age of 33. Couture has seen it all and done even more, with his biggest wins coming against the likes of Maurice Smith,Kevin Randleman, Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort, Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga. His losses have come at the hands of Enson Inoue, Mikhail Illoukhine, Valentijn Overeem, Josh Barnett, Ricco Rodriguez, Vitor Belfort, Chuck Liddell and most recently Brock Lesnar.

Couture is the only fighter in UFC history to have held both the UFC Heavyweight Championship and UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. He is already in the UFC Hall of Fame and as such has become the first man to ever be inducted into the HOF and win a title afterwards. Couture is so beloved and his skills are so respected that many did favor him to win over Brock Lesnar at UFC 91 based on the sheer fact that Randy has made a career out of doing the impossible. Reality set in and the much smaller Couture was battered by Lesnar, and the size difference was too much for the once formidable Champion to overcome. A bout against Nogueira makes sense in that we see the two do battle, but if Couture insists on continuing his career, it would be best for the UFC to agree to send him to light heavyweight and work towards a possible bout with Machida.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is on equal footing with Randy Couture in terms of legendary status. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is perhaps the best of anyone competing in the heavyweight division, and his ability to take a punch is seemingly unrivaled as well. Nogueira's legend was formed in the now defunct PRIDE organization, where he reigned supreme as PRIDE Heavyweight Champion from November 2001 until March 2003. He is only 33 years old but has been fighting professionally since 1999 and has competed in 38 professional bouts.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira boasts a career record of 31 wins against 5 losses with 19 wins coming by way of submission and 3 by KO. Nogueira's biggest wins to date have come against the likes of Jeremy Horn, Valentijn Overeem, Mark Coleman, Heath Herring, Bob Sapp, Dan Henderson, Ricco Rodriguez, Mirko Cro Cop, Fabricio Werdum, Josh Barnett and Tim Sylvia. His losses have come at the hands of Dan Henderson, Fedor Emelianenko (twice), Josh Barnett and the aforementioned Frank Mir.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira took Fedor Emelianenko the distance on two occasions in losing both, and absorbed one hell of an amount of punishment, especially in their first meeting. The two also fought once earlier in a bout which was ruled a "no contest" due to an accidental headbutt. The fact that he took arguably the world's greatest fighter the distance on two occasions is nothing to be taken lightly. The beating he took from Fedor is also something that must have been seen to be believed, and this is what certainly has played a part in the signs of his possible decline against Mir. Nogueira is without a doubt one of the world's toughest fighters, and for the longest time has had one of the most durable chins, and it is likely his heart will continue long past his body is able to keep up.

Nogueira is an old 33 years of age. He has been in some wars and is truly the older of the two in terms of ring wear when he faces off against Couture. Randy has been in there with some tough fighters and taken a beating on occasion himself, but by and large it has been a Nogueira trademark to eat punishment as if he were a Brazilian facsimile of "Rocky Balboa". His showing against Mir left a lot to be desired, and it truly does make you wonder if Mir was at his best, but perhaps the best Nogueira no longer exists. We will certainly find out Saturday.

Bent's Prediction: Randy Couture by Unanimous Decision

Styles make fights, and Couture's makes for what should be a rough evening for Nogueira. Yes, Nogueira's boxing and grappling should more than serve him well, but without a doubt it is Couture who holds a significant advantage due to his wrestling abilities. Nogueira's chin is the question here as we witnessed him getting crushed by Frank Mir, and if indeed his card has been punched, it is possible that Couture could unleash a beating on him and win by stoppage.

This is, however, very unlikely. Nogueira needs to use his reach and fight a patient fight while trying to keep Couture off guard with takedown attempts at the right times. Couture needs to fight on the inside to win this bout and should be the fresher and stronger man by fight time, which will make this a much easier task to accomplish. This fight doesn't have to hit the ground unless Couture wants it to, and this one is his to control. Couture should be more than capable of keeping out of harm's way and so long as he can avoid the submission attempts and remain on the inside with his dirty boxing, it should be another legendary moment for one of the all-time greats.

This will be a great night for Randy Couture and perhaps a sad night for Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira who just so happened to come along at the wrong time and not fight in America until too late in his career. Nogueira is a class act and a true warrior and let us all hope that if indeed his chin is no longer as hard as it once was, that his head hasn't suddenly become harder. The loser of this bout should realistically consider retirement but for warriors such as these, it's hard to make someone walk away when they would much rather go out on their shield.

[Randy Couture art by Cory Gould (c) MMATorch]

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