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By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist UFC 102 comes to us from the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon on Saturday. It's the UFC's debut in Portland, and the card is headlined by Randy Couture, who spent years training with local camp Team Quest. He runs his own gym in Las Vegas now, but rest assured Captain America will be a HUGE crowd favorite Saturday night.
He's not the only attraction on the card though. Despite there not being a title fight, its a very good card from top to bottom. Even the undercard is deep with debuting heavyweights.
ED HERMAN VS. AARON SIMPSON
This fight was originally supposed to be James Irvin vs. Wilson Gouveia, and now, well, its not. Instead we get a couple of wrestlers who prefer the ground and pound. Herman will have the edge in experience and on the feet, but Simpson will have the wrestling advantage and I expect him to be smart enough to use it. Look for Simpson to take Herman down and pound him for three rounds. Simpson has a bright future, but he's not far enough along to finish an Ed Herman.
Prediction: Simpson by decision
MARCUS AURELIO VS. EVAN DUNHAM
Dunham was originally scheduled to meet Matt Veach in a battle of bright prospects, but Veach had to pull out so now Dunham gets to deal with talented but inconsistent Marcus Aurelio. This is the kind of fight Aurelio usually wins, and I don't expect this to buck that trend. Dunham is a good wrestler with solid ground control, but he's never dealt with someone with the experience and jiu-jitsu of Aurelio. I'll take Aurelio to look dominant and tie Dunham into a human knot within two or three minutes.
Prediction: Aurelio by submission in round 1
NICK CATONE VS. MARK MUNOZ
Munoz was once a promising light-heavyweight prospect, but Matt Hammil head-kicked him right out of the division. He'll make his middleweight debut against Catone, a fellow wrestler who prefers to control from the top. Unfortunately for him, Munoz is the better wrestler and, being gun-shy from the Hammil fight, will gladly fight a conservative fight and coast to a decision.
Prediction: Munoz by decision
TIM HAGUE VS. TODD DUFFEE
A lot of people are picking Hague in this fight, and I can't quite figure out why. Sure he submitted Pat Berry in his last fight, but a) he was getting his ass kicked before the submission, b) he had a HUGE size advantage in that fight, and c) you or I could submit Pat Barry. Duffee is the same size, is better than Hague both on the feet and on the ground, and he trains with American Top Team. Duffee will turn Hague into his own personal highlight reel here and start preparing for tougher competition.
Prediction: Duffee by tko in round 1
MIKE RUSSOW VS. JUSTIN McCULLY
This is the easiest fight on the card to call. Russow in a heavyweight prospect with a very bright future, who happens to excel in the area of McCully's greatest weakness. McCully has only stayed in the UFC this long because he's an adequate enough wrestler that he can take strikers down and control them for three rounds, assuming they're a white belt in jiu-jitsu. Russow wins most of his fights by submission and I'd be VERY surprised if this fight goes any other way. It won't take long.
Prediction: Russow by submission in round 1
GABRIEL GONZAGA VS. CHRIS TUCHSCHERER
The third debuting heavyweight on the undercard is the only underdog. He gets the pleasure of taking on a former #1 contender in Gabriel Gonzaga. Tuchscherer does have one thing going for him though; he's Brock Lesnar's training partner. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's been put in enough precarious positions in training that a fight with Gonzaga won't be terribly intimidating. We call know Gonzaga is one of the most talented heavyweights in the world, but tends to wilt if he doesn't get his way. Tuchscherer will be a popular upset pick, and with good reason, because the fight will favor him if it lasts more than a round, but I'm banking on Gonzaga coming in motivated and ending this fight early.
Prediction: Gonzaga by tko in round 1
KRZYSZTOF SOSZYNSKI VS. BRANDON VERA
This fight had bigger ramifications on the light-heavyweight division when it was Matt Hammil vs. Brandon Vera, but this'll do as a replacement. Soszynski has been on a roll since his time on The Ultimate Fighter and he'll be out to prove he can be a contender in the division and not just the gatekeeper role we've bestowed on him. Unfortunately he's facing a likely motivated Brandon Vera, who still has designs on holding both the light-heavyweight and heavyweight titles simultaneously. He'll have the advantage on the feet and the mat and really just needs to avoid a big punch from Krzysztof. Says here he'll do that.
Prediction: Vera by submission in round 2
JAKE ROSHOLT VS. CHRIS LEBEN
Rosholt was supposed to be the next big thing in the WEC's now defunct middleweight division, but after a less-than-impressive WEC debut against Nissen Osterneck and a quick submission loss to Dan Miller in his UFC debut, Rosholt might need a win just to stay in the UFC for the near future. He'll take on a returning Chris Leben who's coming off a steroid suspension after his loss to Michael Bisping. Leben will be at a wrestling disadvantage, but any time he spends on the feet will be crucial. Rosholt, if he has any fight IQ at all, should immediately shoot for a takedown and try to grind out a decision. When he does, Leben will be waiting for him with a big left hand.
Prediction: Leben by tko in round 1
NATE MARQUARDT VS. DEMIAN MAIA
This is easily the most intriguing fight on the card. Maia has torn through all five of his opponents in the UFC so far, and he'll look to add Marquardt to his submission victims list. That will be easier said than done. Marquardt is a fellow black belt on the mat and will have a big advantage on the feet and in experience. This will be a huge step up in competiton for Maia, as he's yet to face even a well-rounded opponent, much less an elite well-rounded opponent. Marquardt will batter Maia for as long as the fight lasts, which I'm predicting to be three full rounds. If Maia does end up submitting Marquardt, he should immediately jump over Dan Henderson in the middleweight pecking order and take on Anderson Silva next. I just don't see it happening.
Prediction: Marquardt by decision
KEITH JARDINE VS. THIAGO SILVA
You gotta love a battle between two top-10 fighters coming off of a loss. For Silva, it was the first loss of his career. Jardine is consistent in his inconsistency, but Silva is a match-up nightmare for him. Silva needs to get inside Jardine's range and turn this into a clinch war. If Houston Alexander could win a clinch fight with Jardine, Silva should have no problems. Jardine needs space for his awkward, lanky limbs to be effective, and Silva won't give him that space.
Prediction: Silva by tko in round 1
RANDY COUTURE VS. ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUIERA
A match up of two heavyweight legends that really has no title implications. Couture has an outside shot at another fight with Brock Lesnar provided he can look dominant in this fight, but I think its more likely he finishes out his contract doing super-fights at 205. Noguiera looked old in his last fight, but no one is too sure how much of that can be attributed to the staph infection he was suffering from. I think he'll look better in this fight, but I just think Couture will be too much in all areas. Nog's only real chance to win is by submission, and Couture should be able to avoid those while delivering punishment from half-guard. When the fight is on the feet I expect Couture to batter Nogueira in the clinch. It all just adds up to a convincing, but not dominating decision win.
Prediction: Couture by decision
Well those are my title retaining predictions, but now its time to work on getting that other belt around my waist.
FAKE MONEY:
$500 on Couture
$300 on Silva
$200 on Tuchscherer
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