FACEBOOK TWITTER RSS APP PODCAST Opinion & Analysis : Staff Columnists BENT: UFC 101 Previews and Predictions - B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian (UFC Lightweight Championship)

Aug 7, 2009 - 4:33:11 PM
By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist
Another favorite from the early days of 'The Ultimate Fighter' is getting a title shot. Which means that you should probably bet the house on Kenny Florian to make good on his opportunity and do the seemingly unthinkable in toppling current UFC Lightweight Champion B.J. Penn on Saturday night. Griffin did it first when he pulled off the upset over Jackson and then he would go on to lose it to Rashad Evans, the winner of 'The Ultimate Fighter 2'. So, the trend seems to be for 'TUF' winners to win the belt in their first chance and then lose it in their very first defense. That means Kenny Florian should win over B.J. Penn and then lose it right away to Diego Sanchez who would be likely to get the next shot.

Of course none of the aforementioned is written in stone and nothing planned can ever come true in the world of professional sports, but history seems to be on Florian's side to say the least. Well, except for the little detail about Florian not winning 'The Ultimate Fighter,' but that of course is why Sanchez would scoop up the title right away. That's for those playing the 'TUF' game at home of course, which is likely to involve the throwing of eggs and some heavy drinking.

'Six Degrees of The Ultimate Fighter' aside, this bout between Penn and Florian is a fantastic Lightweight Title fight between the UFC's true top two lightweight fighters, and Florian's chances for victory have nothing at all to do with anything other than his remarkable abilities as a fighter. Florian is the real deal and has come a long way since his days as the unremarkable middleweight fighter from that first season of 'TUF'. He has since gone on to drop down to a more natural weight, and has progressed as a fighter to the point that it is entirely possible that he may wind up being the very best fighter from that ultra-stacked cast of season one.

B.J. Penn can jump out of a swimming pool, and that alone means absolutely nothing to me but apparently its an impressive deal to some and is meant to show he is in some sort of otherworldly shape. Penn can jump out of the pool but hopefully the reason for this is because he has spent the last few months inside the gym nonstop. B.J. Penn is so gifted but at times it is as if he takes his prodigious talent for granted; but it is those times when he comes into a fight in shape that provide us with breathtaking moments to remember.

Kenny Florian is a tremendous athlete in his own right and it is still so hard to believe that he and Diego Sanchez were the two middleweight finalists from season one of 'The Ultimate Fighter' and are now poised to be among the top lightweights in the world. Florian is one of the most underrated and unappareciated fighters to have emerged from the 'TUF' program and it is with his slick ground game, sharp elbows and a gas tank which seemingly never empties thanks to his work with Kevin Kearns. There is no need for Florian to jump out of a pool in order to show he is in shape, but if he does what he is capable of doing on Saturday, he just may jump out of the Octagon.

B.J. Penn's career record stands at 13 wins against 5 losses with 5 wins by KO and 5 coming by way of submission. Penn is the current UFC Lightweight Champion and his most notable career wins have come at the expense of Caol Uno, Takanori Gomi, Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver and Sean Sherk. He has held the UFC Welterweight Championship and most recently stepped up in weight to attempt to hold it once more when he unsuccessfully challenged Georges St. Pierre at UFC 94. Penn has done it all in this sport and while his best days are likely at lightweight, a properly trained and supremely motivated Penn is a fighter no one would want to face at any weight.

Kenny Florian's career record stands at 11 wins against 3 losses with 3 wins by KO and 7 coming by way of submission. Florian is the current number one contender to Penn's UFC Lightweight Championship and his most notable career wins came at the expense of Kit Cope, Din Thomas, Joe Lauzon, Roger Huerta and Joe Stevenson. Florian has earned his shot at the title and is finally ready for it in terms of his abilities as he has evolved into a much deadlier fighter than any imagined he could ever be. Florian is hungry and looks to be solely focused on winning this title which means Penn is going to have to be even more hellbent on defending it if he wishes to keep it around his waist.

Bent's Prediction: B.J. Penn by 3rd Round TKO

I just can't go with Florian in this one and will be perfectly fine with it if it turns out I was wrong. For every reason I can think of, such as the intangibles, Florian's drive, Penn's possible depression after his loss to GSP and the whole 'TUF' championship chain, I just cannot rationalize a way for Florian to win this bout. So, I won't be betting the house on him but accept that I just may be wrong. Much like going with Griffin over Silva, I am going with what I feel on this one but I do have my reasons.

Stylistically Penn presents a world of trouble for Florian. Both men are solid strikers but Penn is a hell of a lot more accurate and much, much quicker with his punches. Florian is the guy who likes to make you miss before making you pay and he fights best going backwards and off of his heels. Penn is the wrong guy to try and counter and should be all over Florian like a house on fire. If given the opportunity, Penn will stalk Florian and systematically break his will and his face with precision strikes again and again.

If this fight hits the ground, and there is a good chance it will not, but if it does you must still again give the edge to Penn regardless of how proficient Florian is. Florian is an amazing technician and has a black belt to show for it, but he is like Billy Joel to Penn's Mozart and there is really no comparison between the two. Florian is good, perhaps great but Penn lives up to his moniker of 'The Prodigy' quite handily.

I don't care if Penn can jump out of a pool as this does not show me where his head is at. The loss to GSP crushed him. He can blame it on the vaseline as much as Jamie Foxx blames it on the alcohol in that infernal song which I wish would go away, but the truth is that Penn's loss at UFC 94 took the starch right out of him and he is likely to not be the same fighter for a while.

Which is why Florian has a chance at victory, and given his abilities, hunger and fitness makes for plenty of reasons to suggest we will crown a new UFC Lightweight Champion on Saturday night. However, this is B.J. Penn we are talking about and even if Penn doesn't have his head in the game, it appears his body is and with his skills it becomes a no-brainer to go with the great one and pick the champ to successfully defend his belt.

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