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PELKEY: UFC 101 Preview with Predictions and Bets
Aug 7, 2009 - 2:16:59 PM PELKEY: UFC 101 Preview with Predictions and Bets

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Well the historic UFC 100 is now behind us, and UFC 101 is upon us. If you're feeling a bit weighed down by UFC numbered events, too bad, because UFC 102 will be here in three weeks. It may take its toll on your wallet, but its pretty much guaranteed to satisfy your appetite for fistic combat. UFC 101 is clearly being sold on the top two fights, but the rest of the card doesn't have much of a drop-off from 3-11. As disappointing as Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida may be as the third best fight on a card, Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer is pretty darn good for the worst fight on a card. I don't have time to babble today, so let's get right into the picks.


Jessie Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort

I really hope this fight makes the telecast. Lennox is a compact bruiser who's competed at middleweight previously, but will be taking on Villefort at welterweight in the UFC debut for both. They were both casualties of the WEC's decision to disband their top three divisions, and the winner of this fight gets their foot in the door of the UFC's deep welterweight division. Villefort uses a manic (and I mean manic) submission game to try to force his opponents into a mistake. He'll do the same here and choke Lennox out on his twenty-second submission attempt of the fight...about three minutes into a furious first round.

Prediction: Villefort by submission in round 1


George Sotiropoulos vs. George Roop

This fight originally had Rob Emerson in Roop's spot, but he was forced out due to injury. This will be Sotiropoulos's first fight at 155, and he'll be fighting a guy in Roop who's competed at bantamweight in the past. I originally picked Roop in our preview podcast because I questioned George's heart, and that's the one thing Roop really has going for him. The more I think about it, though, the more I think Sotiropoulos's size and skill advantage will be so far in his favor, that heart will never come into play. Plus, Sotiropoulos is a black belt on the mat, and Roop is highly submittable.

Prediction: Sotiropoulos by submission in round 1


Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer

This is a battle of prospects, plain and simple. Riddle has the better wrestling and the brighter future here. Neither is much of a finisher at this point in their careers, so look for Riddle to take a controlling, convincing, but not overly exciting decision.

Prediction: Riddle by decision


Alessio Sakara vs. Thales Leites

I know my colleagues think this one will be elementary, with Leites getting the takedown and submission shortly after the bell rings, but I think we're in for a bit of a firefight here. Leites has shown a willingness to get into senseless brawls in the past, and with his performance against Anderson Silva still weighing heavily on his mind, I think he'll feel the pressure to fight exciting rather than smart. I think he'll stand and trade with Sakara for a round and a half before common sense kicks back in and he realizes ultimately the win is more important.

Prediction: Leites by submission in round 2


Tamden McCrory vs. John Howard

This is about the closest you'll come to seeing a freak-show type of fight in the UFC. Yes, they're both welterweights, but with McCrory standing 6'4 and Howard at a vertically challenged 5'7, this will just look downright funny. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is McCrory's last fight at 170. He's getting bigger daily while he grows into his frame and four or five months from now, the weight cut might be too much. As it stands here, I expect McCrory to keep Howard at bay for three full rounds, smartly using his length to stay away from Howards compact, powerful punches. Should the fight his the mat, McCrory's guard should be at least good enough to neutralize Howard's attack until he can get the fight back upright. This should be a fun little fight, but I don't see either man being finished so don't be surprised if you end up paying $1.99 to see this on Sunday.

Prediction: McCrory by decision


Aaron Riley vs. Shane Nelson

This is a rematch of their encounter at UFC 96, a fight won by Nelson by TKO due to a premature stoppage. Riley is a banger, and he can take way more punishment than he was allowed to in that fight. Nelson will likely have no choice but to stand and trade with Riley here and it will prove to be his downfall. It'll be Riley getting the stoppage win, only this time it will be a decisive one.

Prediction: Riley by TKO in round 2


Kurt Pellegrino vs. Josh Neer

The first fight of the pay-per-view portion is the fight most people are picking as their darkhorse "fight of the night", and its with good reason. Both fighters have earned two of those bonuses previously, and they'll be looking to add a third to their resume/checkbook. Pellegrino has the edge in submissions, but Neer's size advantage will likely neutralize that, as he's no slouch on the ground himself. The story of this fight will likely be Neer putting constant pressure on Pellegrino both on the ground and on the feet, with Pellegrino firing off submission attempts every time he gets put on his back. I don't see either getting finished here, so a decision likely goes to Neer.

Prediction: Neer by decision


Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove

This will be Almeida's last fight at middleweight before dropping down to 170, and he'll be looking to make a statement on the way to his new division. Grove will try to use his length to keep this fight on the feet, but three rounds will be too long to keep fending off Almeida's takedowns. It won't be the most exciting fight, but it'll be a good position battle with Almeida finally able to lock on the submission late in the fight after nearly three full grueling rounds.

Prediction: Almeida by submission in round 3


Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks

Amir makes his long awaited post-TUF debut against NCAA champion wrestler Hendricks after over a year away from competition. Let's hope he's been working on his game as much as his TV personality in that time. Considering he trains at Xtreme Couture, I'm guessing that's the case. On paper, this seems like a terrible match-up for Sadollah. Wrestling is his biggest weakness, and Hendricks will likely put him on his back and pound on him for however long this fight lasts. That's where I think Sadollah wins this fight. Just like Krzysztof Soszynski has patented the kimura as his finishing move of choice, so too will Sadollah with his armbar. If he could submit division one wrestlers at 185, I don't see any reason he can't do it at 170.

Prediction: Sadollah by submission in round 1


Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin

After two lackluster title defenses against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites, the UFC has decided to match Silva up with an opponent they feel confident will bring out the real Anderson Silva. You remember him. He was the guy destroying everything in his path in the UFC before he got bored with the competition. For some reason, a lot of people think Forrest Griffin is still the same guy who put on a ridiculous brawl with Stephan Bonnar to get this whole whirlwind of popularity going. Well, he's not that guy anymore. Now he's Randy Couture's prize pupil. Now he uses the Randy Couture blueprint to win fights: dirty boxing, constant pressure up close, grueling, soul-sapping ground-n-pound from half guard. Turns out he does that because he doesn't have an invincible chin like some thought. He'll use the Couture strategy to take the first round of this fight. Then, Anderson Silva will get pissed. And you wouldn't like him when he's angry. Check that. I LOVE him when he's angry. Then we get to see the ballet of violence (copyright Joe Rogan) that made him famous a couple years ago. And its exactly what we'll see when he comes out to start the second round. I hope the Silva haters enjoy their sliver of hope Forrest Griffin will give them in the first round because it won't last. The Spider won't let this last past the second round.

Prediction: Silva by TKO in round 2


BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian

This is one of two fights I've REALLY been looking forward to since the start of the year, with the other being Machida vs. Evans. Its the top two fighters in a division squaring off for the title, and unlike GSP/Alves, the challenger actually has a pretty good chance here. Make no mistake, I'm a huge BJ Penn fan, and he's easily the most talented fighter in the lightweight division. The problem is, talent can only take you so far in a five round fight. There's a reason they're called "championship rounds". Its because those are the rounds where true champions are made. As talented as BJ is, Kenny Florian's desire and will to be the best is unmatched. BJ will look very good in the first couple of rounds, but if Florian is smart (and I think he might be) he'll make Penn work every second of this fight. If you're content to simply stand and trade with BJ like Sean Sherk did, he's plenty capable of coasting to a decision. If you make him work like GSP did, his will can be broken. That's the key for Kenny Florian. He has to go for takedowns, even though he knows four out of five attempts will get stuffed. If he can make Penn work to stay on his feet in the first three rounds, BJ will be tired by the fourth. That's where Florian will take over. Takedowns will come with less resistance. Passing guard will become possible. A finish will become plausible. In one of the bigger shockers since GSP/Serra, Florian will not only beat Penn, but choke him unconscious in the fifth round.

Prediction: Florian by submission in round 5


Well there you have it; title defending picks on my part. In case you didn't notice, I'm basically predicting they'll be able to make a new "Ultimate Submissions" DVD from this event alone. Now how about I work on getting that Betting Title around my waist as well.

Fake Money:

$300 on Riddle
$300 on Riley
$300 on Villefort
$100 on Florian