FACEBOOK TWITTER RSS APP PODCAST Opinion & Analysis : Staff Columnists UFC 100 MEGA COVERAGE: Bent's Preview & Predictions for Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

Jul 8, 2009 - 6:15:25 PM
By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist
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The following is one of Jason Bent's in-depth fight previews and predictions for the event. All eleven fights have been previewed in-depth and are available right now on the VIP site, along with our daily audio shows with a new focus each day on a particular fight and fighter or some topic pertaining to Saturday's event. You can show great support for MMATorch by becoming a VIP member today for just $5. It's easiest to sign up on your PC, but you can access all of the features on your smart phone's web browser in an ad-free environment or, of course, on your PC.

The co-main event of UFC 100 features Georges St. Pierre defending his UFC Welterweight Championship against the most dangerous opponent possible in Thiago Alves. Georges St. Pierre is widely considered the best welterweight in the world, if not one of the best fighters in anyone's pound for pound listing, and Thiago Alves is a crushing striker who has torn through some of the very best in the division with ease. What we truly have on our hands is a much better bout than was St. Pierre vs. Penn from UFC 94, but obviously one without the mega marquee value of that particular fight.

Penn vs. St. Pierre came with gads of sizzle but delivered absolutely no steak for those wishing for an epic battle, as it was a one-sided beating from start to Penn's finish on his stool. B.J. Penn has all of the skills in the world but when two equally skilled fighters face off, it usually will come down to which of the two is bigger or stronger and St. Pierre was both on that night in January. Penn asserts that this victory was achieved due to the fact that St. Pierre was greased up like a low rent Chippendale, but there have been no further findings to back this up and no efforts at all to investigate the matter further and alter the decision of the bout.

The best need to be challenged and it needs to be constant. There is nothing worse than an elite athlete who goes through a period in his career in which he is never tested and is allowed to coast by merely using just a modicum of his abilities. Think of it as the "A" student being mistakenly placed in the remedial classes and suddenly you have a situation in which this student can now get the "A" grades by simply showing up. You have taken away all of which made him who he was and rather than him becoming increasingly more educated, he now remains at the same level which was once superior to that of his peers. Which means those peers who he was once ahead of have now passed him by.

This is no different for athletes as many are at the elite level but they will either need the right team behind them in terms of coaching or a steady stream of opponents who are going to test them each and every time in some facet of the game. Many a boxer has knocked the pads off of a trainer's hands in the gym and been coddled as they racked up an undefeated record against weak opposition only to find they will be unable to handle themselves when faced with an equal or often superior foe. Hector Camacho, Jr. is but one shining example of a kid who had all of the tools but was milked along for the dollar signs off of his name and protected from ever losing a fight. Camacho, Jr. was better than most at a young age but due to being protected, he became lazy and was then nowhere near the fighter he once could have been.

Anderson Silva, the current UFC Middleweight Champion, has recently run into a similar hurdle as he has not been in there with anyone skilled enough to test him for some time. James Irvin, Patrick Cote and Thales Leites combined are not on his level, and save for an exciting win over Irvin it led to two of the most loathed PPV main events in recent history. Silva is being put in against Forrest Griffin in a light heavyweight tilt at UFC 101 and this is being done specifically to force him to fight. By no means is Griffin on his level as a fighter, but he will be able to force Silva to do something he has seemingly not done in forever; fight to win rather than win because he is the better fighter.

Thiago Alves is the right opponent for Georges St. Pierre. By no means has St. Pierre been coasting, nor has he been allowed to coast, but it is absolute fact that he has not been adequately tested for some time. Having seen what can happen with Anderson Silva's ambivalence towards fighting due to it becoming increasingly too easy, St. Pierre is being put in there to defend his belt against the largest welterweight in the UFC and a legitimate killer with a nasty disposition.

***image1***Georges St. Pierre boasts a career record of 20 wins against only 2 defeats with 8 of his wins coming by KO and 5 by submission. Notable opponents he has beaten have included the likes of Sean Sherk, B.J. Penn, Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. The only two men to hold a victory over St. Pierre are Matt Serra and Matt Hughes. It can be successfully argued that Serra won and convincingly so, but it was clear to most that St. Pierre's mind was not on this fight due to various things going on in his personal life as well as the fact that he may have looked past Serra as being nothing more than a grappling dummy with short arms. A win is a win and Serra scored just that along with the UFC Welterweight Championship, but this was most definitely a win of the fluke variety, and St. Pierre put the world back on its axis by snatching his belt back at UFC 83.

Following this reclaiming of his championship belt, St. Pierre would then face Jon Fitch in the main event of UFC 87. What happened next was twenty-five minutes of hell for Fitch and the fistic equivalent of batting practice for the Canadian champion. Fitch, to his credit, would give what can only be described as a game performance, but his face was beaten beyond recognition and there were never any doubts as to how this one would turn out. St. Pierre was not necessarily tested in this bout but this had nothing to do with the caliber of his opponent and was more a demonstration of just how special of a fighter he has become.

The "Super Fight" with B.J. Penn was up next and the larger and stronger St. Pierre throttled the Hilo native over the course of four rounds before the UFC Lightweight Champion quit on his stool. This is not meant to say Penn should have been advised to do anything else as the fifth round would surely have been another five minutes of him being beaten down, but it proved just how much he was dominated by St. Pierre. Penn was beyond dejected, and it was more or less as if he could not believe just how thoroughly he was dismantled in a bout which many predicted he would actually win. Barring any of the allegations of St. Pierre being greased up, it can only be seen as a prime example for those who wish to defend their choice of GSP atop their pound for pound list.

Who would challenge St. Pierre next?

Who could even stand a chance?

Meet Thiago Alves.

Thiago Alves is an American Top Team product who can almost literally kick the legs off of his opponents, but often has a hard time making weight. Alves holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and began his professional career at an age which most of us spend drinking cheap beer, listening to Bob Marley's 'Legend' and trying to sleep with everything that moves. While most of us had no real clue as to what we would do with our lives, Alves did based on the prodigious physical gifts with which he was blessed. Put it this way, John Holmes was meant to be an adult film star from the time the doctor was unsure just which was the umbilical cord and Thiago Alves possessed the sturdy frame, athleticism and demeanor necessary to be a fighter when he was just an early teen.

Alves would make the move from his native Brazil to Coconut, Florida at the age of 19 to train full time as a member of the much heralded American Top Team. Quite frankly, it tells much of his gifts that he was immediately accepted as a member of such an elite gym at such a young age. Most fighters are not even near ready enough to fight with the best and even more are not even capable of training in the same gym with them.

Tim Sylvia is a fighter who while never reaching elite levels in terms of skills did win the UFC Heavyweight Championship, and he was browbeaten into submission when he stepped into the world of Miletich Fighting Systems. They ended up making a somewhat decent heavyweight out of him and this is credit to Pat Miletich and company while obviously showing that Sylvia does have somewhat of a work ethic. With Thiago Alves, he stepped in with the toughest American Top Team fighters and earned his acceptance in no time at all.

Alves' raw talent made it so he needed to be pushed right away, but at the same time he did not have the amount of time for seasoning which so many fighters are lucky enough to enjoy. As such, Alves was submitted by Derrick Noble in their bout at Absolute Fighting Championship 6 and this was indeed a display which showed just how raw Alves was. However, these losses are necessary for a fighter's development so long as they are not allowed to impact their psyche, and Alves would go on to win his next three fights before getting the chance to fight under the UFC banner.

Alves lost his debut against Spencer Fisher at 'UFC Ultimate Fight Night 2' but would quickly return to the Octagon and notch victories over both Ansar Chalangov and Derrick Noble at UFC 56 and UFC 59 respectively. This win over Noble makes it even more clear that the first time these two met it was a matter of experience and not necessarily ability which determined the outcome. Alves had exacted some form of revenge and in some ways he got that loss back by besting Noble in the rematch.

Thiago Alves would run into Jon Fitch in his next outing at 'UFC Ultimate Fight Night 5' and suffer a rather humbling second round TKO loss to the future number one contender. What this bout determined was that for that moment, Alves was just not quite there yet, but was developed enough that he would be able to continue the learning experience while fighting for the UFC. Alves wasn't the starting quarterback on the Division I squad but he certainly wasn't going to transfer to a junior college in Podunk, Montana following a stumble. It was simply not his time just yet.

Alves would then embark on a seven fight winning streak and leave several notable opponents crumbled in his wake as he climbed the welterweight ladder. He was developing on the fly and seemingly getting stronger with his striking becoming more efficient each and every time he went out there. This looked to be the product of a gifted athlete paired with a quality team and being forced to improve his skills by competing against better opponents each time out.

Thiago Alves has amassed a career record of 16 wins against only 3 losses with 10 of these wins coming by way of KO and 1 by submission. Notable names he has bested are Marcus Davis, Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and most recently Josh Koscheck. Alves lost the battle on the scale before his bout with Hughes at UFC 85 but finished strongly by utilizing the flying knee to send the legend to the mat in a disheveled heap of disappointment. Thiago's greatest achievement so far trumped even that of his victory over Hughes when he put on a striking clinic against Koscheck in their bout at UFC 90.

Josh Koscheck gave it his all but it was not nearly enough against Thiago Alves in their bout on the undercard of Silva vs. Cote at UFC 90. The leg kicks which landed were brutal on sight, but the audible thud which echoed each and every time one connected was what sent the message home. Following three rounds of brutality on par with that which St. Pierre doled out against Fitch it was clear that Thiago Alves' time had indeed arrived. At UFC 100 when he takes on Georges St. Pierre for the UFC Welterweight Championship it will determine if St. Pierre's time is up as champion.

Bent's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre by way of 3rd round TKO

St. Pierre is the best welterweight on the planet and he knows full well what can happen when he takes an opponent lightly. Alves is no Serra and there is no way GSP will be walking into this one and expecting to coast. St. Pierre is too skilled in every single area and the fact is that Alves will be intimidated by the opportunity. When Alves was shuffled into the Octagon to set up this fight, it looked as if he were actually a little shook and not quite brimming with the necessary confidence. This alone allows St. Pierre to have the fight won before it even begins.

When you take this out of the equation and give Alves confidence it is still clear to me that even on his best day now that he will not be able to topple St. Pierre. Matt Hughes was not the Matt Hughes of old when he lost to Alves at UFC 85 and was merely an old Matt Hughes. Josh Koscheck is good but not great yet and Alves was unable to finish him off. Georges St. Pierre is better than both by far and moves so much better than Koscheck, which means in my opinion that Alves will not be able to land the clean shots and could get frustrated after a few rounds of having not been successful.

I see Georges St. Pierre fighting circles around him for the early stages of this fight, and I look for Thiago Alves to land a few shots which will put him right back in the bout momentarily. I say momentarily because this is when I feel Alves will feel confident and find himself in the wrong place at the wrong time and on the losing end of this title fight. I see Georges St. Pierre winning this by way of 3rd round TKO and I look for him to move on to a bout with Anderson Silva for Super Bowl weekend.

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