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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
As with most overseas shows, the preliminary fights don't have a lot to offer. I'll give it to the UFC that the header for the prelims appears to be a fun brawl, as Kikuno and Brandao aren't the types to gain a victory with grappling, but the rest of the fights feature guys trying to climb out of the bottom of the division. I don't want to bash too hard though as it will be good to see the UFC putting on a show once again, though I will admit all the fights from Bellator, WSOF, Titan, and RFA did a great job of scratching my itch...
Katsunori Kikuno vs. Diego Brandao (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: A pair of floundering featherweights will look to find stable ground in the middle of the division with a victory over the other.
The Fighters: Kikuno owns one of the weirdest stances you will find in the sport, as he keeps his hands low and ready to counter while offering odd angles for his opponents to deal with. It worked extremely well for him in Japan with mixed results thus far in the UFC, as he hasn't always been quick enough to block opponent's strikes, proving to be inherently hittable. Even more curious is he picked up both of his UFC victories when he wasn't waiting for his opponent to make the first move. Kikuno has a signature body kick he loves to throw (crescent moon kick) that also comes at his opponents at a weird angle and has proven to be very difficult to take down. Though his wrestling and grappling are more than competent, he doesn't use them very often.
The UFC no longer seems to believe that Brandao is a future star (he isn't), but that doesn't mean he can't have a long career in the world's top MMA organization as an action fighter. An emotional fighter, Brandao has struggled to reign himself in early in fights and if opponents can survive his early aggressive onslaught, he is pretty much a sitting duck as he'll deplete his gas tank in a hurry. There have been times where he has harnessed his energy, showing himself to be more than just a brawler with surprisingly solid wrestling to go with both the ground strikes and submission skills to finish the fight if he gets it to the ground. Aside from his gas tank, Brandao has struggled to avoid his opponent's strikes even before he tires himself out.
The Expectation: This should be fun considering neither of these guys put a premium on defense. I expect a finish early and feel Brandao's advantage in athleticism and explosiveness should allow him to keep his faculties about him to get his hand raised. Brandao via KO in the first round
Keita Nakamura vs. Yi Jingliang (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Umm… not a lot at stake here. Both would have to be considered near the bottom of the welterweight heap.
The Fighters: Nakamura made his UFC debut all the way back in 2006 as an undefeated 22-year old. Three appearances later, he left with the first three losses of his career. While finding recent footage of him has proven difficult, he has been successful back in Japan pulling down a 14-3 record since his UFC stint. Though known mostly as a grappler, Nakamura struggled with that in the UFC due to being an undersized welterweight, though he did show improvement there once he dropped to 155. Lucky for him, Jingliang isn't a large welterweight himself. A patient striker largely utilizing boxing from a southpaw stance with a solid chin, Nakamura doesn't offer a lot of power in his punches. His knees from the clinch can be a different story.
Jingliang is similar to Nakamura in that he isn't known to have a lot of power in his fists while being known primarily as a grappler. Jingliang could be changing that perception as he scored an impressive stoppage over Dhiego Lima set up by a nice boxing combination that sent Lima to the ground. Though it was over quickly, his striking technique in that short time was greatly improved making him less of a brawler. While he could still work on his head movement, Nakamura doesn't seem like the guy who will make him pay for that. Despite his reputation as a grappler, Jingliang's wrestling leaves a lot to be desired as he has struggled to get the fight to the ground, though he has proven to be efficient there once he can get the fight to the ground.
The Expectation: Veterans making returns to the UFC following a long absence haven't found much success upon their return. Though I like Nakamura better than some of the others who have done so, I like the strides Jingliang has been making and believe he will eek out a close decision. Jingliang via decision
Nick Hein vs. Yusuke Kasuya (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Similar to the Nakamura-Jingliang fight, both of these guys are hovering near the bottom of their division.
The Fighters: Hein has been an interesting case of working against his natural talents. A stocky fighter who rarely if ever possesses a reach advantage, Hein has opted to be a striker while largely ignoring his judo base, rarely looking to take the fight to the ground. It isn't that he has no standup abilities; he is actually a sound boxer with occasional pop in his punches. But considering he needs to get inside of his opponent's range anyway, why not return to his wheelhouse and pull off a trip? Perhaps it is due to his limited grappling skills, as he has shown very little submission prowess outside of the lowest circuits on Germany. He does possess good ground strikes while his judo skills has made him impossible to takedown thus far. Maybe his judo skills haven't been wasted…
Kasuya is the type of fighter you never want to miss as he is going to make things interesting, win or lose. A submission specialist who has picked up eight of his nine wins due to a sub, Kasuya lacks the requisite skill set to get the fight to the ground against anything other than regional talent. Often relying on initiating scrambles in order to latch on to a limb, Kasuya's wrestling lacks any real technique to it and it would be shocking to see him take down Hein. But that doesn't mean he can't use it to create scrambles where he is cat-quick taking the back going all in for the submission while often giving up a favorable position to do so. Kasuya has some skills on the feet too with steady punches, hard kicks, and a tough (but hittable) chin.
The Expectation: While guys like Kasuya are fun to watch, they rarely find much success at the highest level. Hein's technically sound boxing should be enough to catch Kasuya at some point, and I really have a hard time seeing Kasuya getting Hein to the ground. Look for Hein to get his first UFC stoppage. Hein via TKO in the second round
Naoyuki Kotani vs. Kajan Johnson (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Kotani is still around? Wow. He'll surely be gone with a loss here while Johnson has a bit more security coming off a win… but not by much.
The Fighters: Somewhat similar to Nakamura in that he made his UFC debut years ago only to return off of a successful run in Japan, Kotani has been much less competitive in his UFC outings than his Japanese counterpart while looking progressively worse. In a pure grappling match, Kotani would pick up his fair share of wins against UFC fighters as he is highly skilled in leglocks and more than adept with the rest of his submission skills. With that knowledge, it's easy to see why he had so much success in the ZST organization where ground strikes are illegal. He is very good in the clinch with a powerful upper body where he looks for trips and throws, but doesn't do much striking there. If forced to stand up the entirety of the fight, Kotani has no chance as leg kicks seem to be the only consistent weapon.
An old 31, Johnson was one of the Canadian circuit's most prominent fighters before his UFC call up thanks to TUF Nations. A solid athlete with a rangy build, Johnson's best days are behind him with a highly questionable chin. He is still capable of beating up those on the lower level as he throws together solid punching combinations while mixing in kicks, though he is light on power. Most of his finishes have come from his underrated submission skills, including an active game off of his back which is accentuated by his long limbs. While his wrestling lacks power and explosion (similar to his striking), Johnson has incorporated a lot of throws and trips to get his opponent down, doing a solid job of mixing the grappling in with his striking to keep opponents on their feet.
The Expectation: Johnson's chin has deteriorated enough that a striker with any semblance of power would be the favorite. That doesn't describe Kotani. Johnson is much more well-rounded and should be able to outpoint Kotani and send him packing. Johnson via decision
Shinsho Anzai vs. Roger Zapata (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Would I sound like a dick if I said this is about as lowly of a fight as you'll find in the UFC? Hmm… I guess being honest makes a person a dick then.
The Fighters: Still very much a mystery as he made his UFC debut with only about a week's notice, Anzai comes from a wrestling background which he chose to ignore in his debut. Not necessarily a horrible idea considering his opponent (Alberto Mina) was known as a fantastic grappler, but you will be hard-pressed to find someone who is more wild in their striking as Anzai doesn't bother to test the waters as he looks to wing bombs from the get-go. If he does decide to utilize his wrestling this time around (and I would expect him to), he is relentless in going for double leg takedowns with some good ground and pound. While submission abilities seem to be in short supply for him, his grit alone seems like it would make it difficult to make him tapout.
Zapata is another one on whom it is difficult to get a finger on as he hasn't fought since his time on the 19th season of TUF where he was also fighting outside of his natural weight class. While he showed a lot of heart and toughness in his showing there, it isn't necessarily a good thing on the highest levels when those are the traits that stand out the most. The skill set that he seemed to possess the most of is some good striking in the pocket as he throws together good boxing combinations. He can be tentative in looking for those opportunities to present themselves while a rangy opponent can pick him apart. Problem is his grappling and wrestling are in short supply as he was controlled for the great majority of his bout with Ian Stephens and recklessly gave his arm to Dhiego Lima in the semifinals.
The Expectation: While I don't feel either one of these guys are UFC caliber, I gotta pick a winner between the two. I got a gut feeling Anzai's aggression will come back to haunt him as it did his first UFC appearance and Zapata will find an early TKO stoppage. Zapata via TKO in the first round
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