...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
For the first time since December 2013, Fox will be hosting a UFC title fight, as Bantamweight Champion T.J. Dillashaw rematches Renan Barao, the man he took the belt from in the first place in May of last year. Even though this is a fantastic matchup, one can't help but feel it isn't getting the hype it deserves. Last week ended a span of eight days in which we saw four events take place, including the already revered UFC 189, which also received the most promotion of any UFC event in memory. And what have I seen to promote this title fight? Besides the Road to the Octagon feature, pretty much nothing. Maybe I need to watch more TV…
MMA fans should feel lucky they get to view this one for free as it should be an entertaining one. The rest of the card doesn't seem to be on par with the last Fox offering (Machida vs. Rockhold), but that one may have been the best example of how a Fox card should be done. A new #1 contender at women's bantamweight should be crowned, and there are enough fights with high entertainment potential that there are sure to be a barn burner or two, including one between a returning Eddie Wineland and Bryan Caraway on the prelims. Hey, this is what I write up on… I gotta get a plug in there somewhere.
Gian Villante vs. Tom Lawlor (Light Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: Based on their abilities, these two would be swimming in the middle (at best) in any other division. A spot in the rankings is likely on the line here.
The Fighters: The potential in Villante has been readily apparent since as he took to the sport. As a collegiate wrestler and linebacker, his combination of strength and athleticism that accompanied his wrestling pedigree had many thinking he would be a major force in the sport. He has fallen well short of those expectations, as stamina issues and surprising issues in scoring the takedown have been major problems for him. Villante hasn't allayed those concerns quite yet (though his stamina has improved), but his striking has certainly made some strides, though he is still exceptionally hittable as he relies heavily on his durability. Though he has always had an offense heavy on leg kicks, he has upped the ante even more as of late.
Lawlor is a very likable dude, in large part due to his colorful ring entrances and weigh-in appearances where he has appeared as the likes of Apollo Creed and Dan Severn. That aside, he faces a tough task even beyond his opponent, as he is not only stepping into the cage for the first time in over two years, but is fighting at 205 lbs. for the first time in almost seven years, as he has spent the majority of his UFC career at middleweight. Largely a grinder, Lawlor will likely struggle to implement that strategy as he will now be facing dudes consistently larger than him. That doesn't mean this is a bad move for him, as light heavyweight is more shallow than 185 lbs., and he pushes a hard pace that is hard for most to keep up with. His striking isn't very diverse, but his boxing and submission skills are both underrated.
The Expectation: I would like the chances for Lawlor more if he didn't have to deal with ring rust and a new weight class. Despite that I would probably pick him… if Villante wasn't good at stopping takedowns. This will turn into a dogfight which favors Villante with his power. Villante via TKO in the third round
Jim Miller vs. Danny Castillo (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Zuffa employees since 2008, these two veterans are riding two-fight losing streaks and could be fighting for their employment, as it could be said relevance has passed them by.
The Fighters: Once upon a time the definitive action fighter at the lightweight division, Miller has been slowing down over the last few years, as he used to consistently be on the short list of contenders. Now he should be content to be a gatekeeper. Never a great athlete to begin with, Miller has been among the best in the sport at blending his wrestling and BJJ together, as he grinds away at his opponents with steady, though not powerful, ground strikes, all the while searching for a submission opportunity, and he can nab one off of his back as well. Larger wrestlers and superior grapplers have been his kryptonite as of late, but that doesn't exactly describe Castillo. On his feet, Miller presents a simplistic boxing game with increasing reliance on leg kicks and an efficient clinch game against the fence.
Castillo may not be a large wrestler, but he is an effective one that is somewhat comparable to Miller, in the sense that he is active in wearing down his opponent with ground strikes. The differences between the two is that Castillo is more active in looking to take the fight to the ground (particularly with his powerful shot whereas Miller relies more on trips and throws) and doesn't possess the same submission acumen. Like all Team Alpha Male representatives, Castillo is your classic wrestle-boxer who has shown more diversity and power the last few years as he improved the use of angles. Most of Castillo's struggles have come against fellow wrestlers, but he has tightened up his submission defense significantly after early career struggles with it.
The Expectation: This is a very evenly matched fight as both seem to be slipping after accumulating a lot of tread on their tires and both present troublesome issues for one another. Few outcomes will surprise me out of this one, but I'm gonna favor Miller snatching Castillo as he has caught superior grapplers to Castillo in bad situations. Miller via submission in the third round
Kenny Robertson vs. Ben Saunders (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: These pair of rugged veterans on their second UFC stint battle for the opportunity to knock on the door of the rankings.
The Fighters: Riding a three fight win streak, Robertson has been easy to overlook due to his non-intimidating appearance and workmanlike style. Largely a wrestler with some crafty grappling upon his UFC entry, Robertson has slowly added to his game to the point where he was able to get a first round stoppage due to an overhand left on a durable opponent in Sultan Aliev. His boxing still isn't the most mechanically clean, but he has made it work for him. He has normally had more success in the clinch anyway where he grinds them down with dirty boxing and knees before trying to drag the fight to the ground. Despite the striking improvements, grappling is still his bread-and-butter, which is accentuated by a creative submission arsenal.
Saunders has taken the opposite road of Robertson. A long, lanky, and fearsome striker, he has been able to show an improved submission game upon his return, as he scored the first omoplata finish in UFC history. The truth though is that Saunders has always had a viable submission game… it's merely been overlooked thanks to his reputation as a striker. At 6'2” with a 77” reach, Saunders has all the physical tools to be an efficient distance striker, and does have a nice jab and kick arsenal. But where he really tears up his opponents is in the clinch, where he cinches in the Muay Thai plum and goes to town with knees to the body and head. His takedown defense is usually solid, but his offensive wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, and has made his offensive attack one-dimensional at times.
The Expectation: Joe Silva did excellent work pairing these two up. Saunders has the advantage in the physical tools, but Robertson has proven to be savvy and durable. I'm gonna go with Saunders as I think his grappling is efficient enough to neutralize Robertson's advantage there. Saunders via decision
Eddie Wineland vs. Bryan Caraway (Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: With bantamweight suddenly gaining depth with the emergence of a number of youngsters, Wineland and Caraway will be battling to remain relevant near the top.
The Fighters: Wineland is coming off of a layoff of over a year after having his jaw broken last May by Johnny Eduardo. After contemplating retirement, Wineland decided he still has something to offer. Wineland makes no secret of his strategy and never has, but despite that opponents have continually had trouble stopping his swarming boxing. Pushing forward as a nonstop pace, Wineland possesses unusual power for the weight class and is an expert at dragging others into the type of dogfight he excels in. What allows him to be successful is his efficient wrestling. Though he rarely goes for takedowns himself, few are better at stuffing their opponents and keeping the fight standing than Wineland. Urijah Faber was the last person to take him down… four years ago.
That doesn't bode well for grappling expert Caraway, who has picked up all four of his UFC victories by submission in an era where submission wins are more difficult to come by. His submission prowess has prevented many from noticing the improvements he has made in his striking. Though it still consists of overhands and looping hooks as he rushes in to close the distance where he can execute his level changes, he has added some sting to his leg kicks and some efficient dirty boxing in the clinch. Though far from a high-level KO threat, Caraway isn't the joke on the feet many paint him out to be. His takedown attempts are relentless once he gets in on them and few in the sport have proven better at taking an opponent's back, where he knows all the little tricks to sink in a RNC, his signature sub.
The Expectation: Much is being made of Wineland's layoff, but it has been almost 10 months since Caraway stepped into the Octagon himself. Caraway has proven to be hittable as he tries to close distance. When combined with Wineland's takedown defense, that isn't good for Caraway. Wineland via TKO in the second round
Daron Cruickshank vs. James Krause (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Middle of the pack action fighters Cruickshank and Krause look to get on track after rough stretches. To up the ante, Krause's job is probably on the line.
The Fighters: Cruickshank has threatened a couple of times to break out of the masses in the middle of lightweight only to be sent back down in brutal fashion. Fortunately, he has typically bounced back in better than expected fashion. Building off of a karate base, Cruickshank has developed a fundamentally sound boxing game with occasional pop that compliments the highlight reel kicks that have proven capable of putting to sleep a number of past opponents. In order to further round himself out, he has added a potent takedowns from his wrestling that he had always possessed but largely ignored upon his UFC entry. Though not a terrible grappler, he has struggled mightily with those who have a proven track record in grappling.
Krause doesn't exactly fall into that category, but few are more opportunistic in scrambling situations in nabbing their opponent's neck and squeezing until they get the tap as he is. Fighting against tougher competition at the UFC level has made it more difficult for Krause to take advantage of that and he has emerged as more of a striker of sorts. He has the physical tools to do so as he is 6'2 with a 75” reach. He throws a lot of kicks and jabs to take advantage of that, but he doesn't have a whole lot of power behind his strikes to excel in brawls. If he can turn the engagement into a battle of points, he is the favorite with his accurate distance strikes. His biggest weakness is his inability to dictate where the fight goes as his takedowns and takedown defense have proven poor.
The Expectation: While Krause has enough functional wrestling to keep from being dominated, he doesn't possess enough to force others with the wrestling that Cruickshank has to fight his fight. This will be Cruickshank's fight. Cruickshank via decision
Ramsey Nijem vs. Andrew Holbrook (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Hot and cold Octagon vet Nijem again tries to right his course welcoming newcomer Andrew Holbrook to the UFC.
The Fighters: Nijem is an interesting case study. He has improved immensely since he first entered the UFC in 2011 with a nice aggressive wrestling base, and opportunistic submissions; he has developed some serious power in his punches. The problem has been putting everything together on a consistent basis. When he does, he looks like a beast, such as when he handed Beneil Dariush his lone loss. If Nijem ever develops the consistency to put all of his tools together, he could be a real contender as his pace has proven difficult to match with a long reach. Oh wait… there is one other glaring weakness. Nijem gets so focused on his offense at times he forgets to protect himself, whether that be his striking or grappling. “Chinny” has been accurately used to describe him thanks to this tendency.
Holbrook is very much a mystery. Depending upon which database you use, he has won every single one of his fights by submission without a single loss yet. While that sounds awesome, his level of competition has been highly questionable, and he is still relatively new to the sport, making his pro debut in November of 2012. Reports indicate that he has a collegiate wrestling background and that he has been working on his boxing. Those look very shaky from the limited footage found on him so one would hope it is true that he is working on that. The ground is clearly where he is most comfortable as it is clear he is searching for an opening right away. He does a good job of using strikes on the ground to open up opportunities, though they wouldn't be described as fight ending.
The Expectation: It's hard to get excited about Holbrook's chances. Not only is he facing a tough dude in Nijem, but he is doing so on short notice. Nijem should get a relatively easy victory here. Nijem via TKO in the first round
Jessamyn Duke vs. Elizabeth Phillips (Women's Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: Training partners of Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate are looking to remain employed… only a victory will do so.
The Fighters: Duke has been a bit of an exercise in frustration. At 5'11” with a 73” reach, she has the ideal frame in order to keep her opponents on the outside and avoid getting dragged into a brawl. Unfortunately she hasn't been able to avoid those brawls, and takes far more damage than she should. She does use front kicks and jabs with some efficiency, but she too often throws one strike at a time and leaves herself open for the counter. The clinch is her wheel house as she has an extensive Muay Thai background and has the ability to really hurt her opponent. Duke does have some wrestling and grappling abilities, but those are still fairly raw, particularly her wrestling. Until the wrestling develops, she'll be very much a one-dimensional fighter.
Phillips actually does have a wrestling background, but she hasn't done much to try to implement it into her strategy thus far in the UFC, as she has been revealing herself to be a brawler. Fortunately she has proven to be very durable and the strategy works for her better than it would for most, but everyone gets caught sooner or later in that manner. She has tried to avoid that at times and has established a solid jab and improved her movement. As far as her grappling and wrestling, she is sound at establishing position, but can suffer from bouts of inactivity. If she is to end a fight from there it will be with her fists as she has shown very little inclination to search for a submission with the opportunities presented to her and is even prone to walking into submissions herself.
The Expectation: This is a hard one to pick. Both have certain advantages that could easily spell doom for the other and I have flip-flopped in my mind multiple times. I'm trying to avoid using a coin flip, so I'll go with what I'm currently thinking and leave it at that. Phillips via decision
Zak Cummings vs. Dominique Steele (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: What was previously a loser-leaves-town bout received a shakeup when Steele entered on short notice due to injury… but Cummings' job is still on the line.
The Fighters: Cummings is absolutely HUGE at welterweight, and proved last year what a struggle it is for him to make the weight when he missed it by 8 lbs. prior to one of his fights. Considering he is 100% a grinder, it makes sense that he wants that advantage, as there is absolutely nothing pretty about his style. Not a particularly great athlete, Cummings uses his basic boxing (with functional power to make him a bit of a threat) to close the distance into the clinch and find a way to drag his opponent to the ground, whether it be with changing levels or using trips. As a result of this approach, he spends a lot of time against the fence wearing opponents down with knees and dirty boxing. His brand of BJJ is very physical, blended efficiently with wrestling, and a lot of ground strikes are used to search for openings.
Steele is a bit of an enigma. Largely a grinder like Cummings, Steele is physically strong and a sound athlete, yet the equation seems to be less than the addition of the parts. He isn't horrible at getting the fight to the ground, but doesn't do much once he gets it there, and struggles to maintain position; and for someone with his physical skills he is taken down far too easily. Once he does get the fight to the ground he'll fall into inactivity or spend the entirety trying to maintain position. In the pocket, Steele doesn't mind a brawl as he has some solid power, but gets pieced up by opponents with a technically sound striking game as he is quite stationary as he exchange. Speedy opponents has been his kryptonite, but fortunately for him Cummings doesn't fall into that category.
The Expectation: Steele has made steady improvements, but not nearly enough to be able to handle the grinding style that Cummings presents. This should be a fairly easy victory for the UFC vet. Cummings via submission injavascript:uploadFilesPopup('artman_article','image','media'); the second round
DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
Interested in joining MMATorch's writing team? Send idea for a theme to your column (for Specialist section) or area of interest (i.e. TV Reporter) along with a sample of writing to mmatorch@gmail.com.
