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D. FOX: Preliminary card preview for UFC Fight Night 70 "Machida vs. Romero"
Jun 25, 2015 - 3:15:45 PM D. FOX: Preliminary card preview for UFC Fight Night 70 "Machida vs. Romero"

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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor

Remember when it was expected that Rick Story was supposed to headline this event with Erick Silva? It isn't that I dislike the fight, but that was the headliner? Then with less than two months before the event was to take place the UFC announced that Lyoto Machida and Yoel Romero would take the headlining role and relegate Story-Silva to the co-main event, giving even casual fans a reason to watch the event. There has been plenty of reasons to rip on the UFC over the last few months, but this was an unexpected surprise on which they scored BIG.

Well, it appeared that the UFC had scored big, anyway. About two weeks out from the event, rumors began circulating that many fighters scheduled to appear were having VISA issues, and there was a good chance they wouldn't be able to appear, including the aforementioned Silva. Those rumors proved to be true and about a week later, four fights were scrapped and a host of short notice fights were made to try filling the card back up. You can guess that fights made on a week's notice (all of them on the prelims) aren't the highest quality, and that this is a weak showing for the undercard. But hey, what can you do? We still got Machida-Romero!

Alex Oliveira vs. Joe Merritt (Welterweight)

What's at Stake: Oliveira steps up in weight (again) to welcome an unknown Merritt to the UFC.

The Fighters: What is it with guys named Cowboy and taking as many fights as possible? This will be Oliveira's third UFC fight and his third on short notice within a span of roughly three months. I suppose that is one way to work yourself out of the lower tier of the Reebok pay scale. Oliveira has already made quite a bit of noise in his short time in the organization thanks to his dynamic striking made possible by his freakishly long reach. He still has some holes on defense, but he is far from a one-trick pony as his wrestling has proven to be better than originally expected thanks to his natural gifts as opposed to technique. The same could be said of his grappling and even his striking, but he is still relatively young in the sport and improvement in all phases should be expected.

Merritt is very much a mystery for reasons beyond limited video footage. Like Oliveira, he is still young in the sport with some obvious physical gifts and the most encouraging stat may be that he has won every single professional and amateur bout he has been in by KO/TKO. When put that way, he sounds like a beast. When one looks at the combined record of his professional opposition (9-27, and yes he has fought in the ultimate can crusher organization Xplode MMA), it feels much easier to write him off. He'll struggle in decisions as he doesn't throw in great volume and doesn't seem to have much of a wrestling or grappling background. That said, he has some very hard kicks and excellent Muay Thai meaning he should have more than a punchers chance if he can keep the fight on the feet.

The Expectation: While I think this could be a fun striking match, Oliveira has no reason to keep the fight on the feet and I don't think he will. This shouldn't last long. Oliveira via submission in the first round


Leandro Silva vs. Lewis Gonzalez (Welterweight)

What's at Stake: Silva likely believes he has an easy win over newcomer Gonzalez in an effort to rebuild his image from March's no contest debacle.

The Fighters: Silva was handed a gift submission win in Brazil by Eduardo Herdy in March when Herdy stopped the fight by claiming Silva's opponent Drew Dober tapped. After initially claiming they couldn't change the result, the Brazilian commission came to their senses and changed the fight to a no contest. Though not Silva's fault he became a villain of sorts in all this. As for his style, he has turned up the volume as of late after suffering from a lack of output and aggression earlier in his UFC tenure and started finding success. A long lightweight, he makes fair use of a jab and leg kicks without being a true KO threat. Silva's preferred method of victory is to take his opponent's back and sink in a choke as he has proven to be adept at mixing his grappling with his wrestling quite efficiently. However, he doesn't excel in either individually and can be overwhelmed by opponents better equipped in either phase.

Gonzalez is far from a blue chip talent, but that doesn't mean he is without a route to victory. California state wrestling champion in high school, it is clear that wrestling serves as his bread and butter as he is adept at stuffing takedowns in addition to instinctively shooting from too far out at times when he knows his opponent owns a striking advantage. He'll also rely heavily on leg kicks to maintain distance as his defensive skills are far from optimal and he can be overwhelmed. He hasn't shown much submission prowess, but is strong from the top position and has some very solid GNP which has induced multiple opponents to tapout from the onslaught.

The Expectation: I don't want to be a buzzkill, but there is little reason to get excited for this fight. Little is at stake and it doesn't seem like it will be an awesome fight. I'll favor Silva's reach and grappling… but I'm not gonna get excited about it. Silva via decision


Steve Montgomery vs. Tony Sims (Welterweight)

What's at Stake: Both of these guys are making their debuts with little else to say.

The Fighters: Creepy Steve was a part of the cast of the most recent season of TUF, but was removed from the show after he suffered a seizure due to a botched weight cut. Is it any wonder people are worried about concerned about fighter cutting too much weight? Anyway, Montgomery is a HUGE welterweight at 6'4”, but hasn't learned to use his length to full effect from a distance, but that doesn't mean he sucks there. He pumps a solid jab and throws kicks to all parts of the body. He is far from reaching his ceiling and has developed a very efficient clinch game where he does know how to use his length with devastating knees. Though he is a big dude, he should make weight fairly comfortably despite the late call-up due to him preparing for a different fight beforehand.

Sims is much less heralded than Montgomery, but that is hardly indicative of his talent. The bigger disparity will be in regards to size as Sims is a natural lightweight. While he is a good sized lightweight, he'll be no match strength-wise against the monstrous Montgomery. Sims should be able to use his wrestling background to survive the high probability of Montgomery's takedowns, but that is no guarantee. Luckily for him that isn't his primary weapon as he is a talented and powerful boxer. His lack of dynamism makes him a bit predictable as he doesn't look to take the fight anywhere besides the pocket. He does have a good chin, but that is never a wise strategy against larger opponents. If he can stay on his bicycle and take good angles, he stands a great chance of pulling off the upset.

The Expectation: Sims is more UFC ready and could beat a number of 155ers already on the roster, but he is going to have a difficult time dealing with Montgomery's size. Montgomery will look to grind this one out and will likely succeed. Montgomery via decision


Danny Martinez vs. Sirwan Kakai (Bantamweight)

What's at Stake: Martinez receives his best chance to pick up his first win under Zuffa against a late notice opponent. He'll probably be cut if he loses.

The Fighters: The book on Martinez is simple and indicative of a fighter from an era gone by. He comes at his opponent swinging fairly wild haymakers that have some power to them. He knows that they aren't the most technical punches, but they aren't so much designed to land as they are to allow him to cut the distance and shoot for a takedown on his opponent. What hurts Martinez is that it is easy to stuff a takedown if you know that it is coming. To his credit, he changed gears up quite a bit in his last bout and offered a seldom before seen straight punch that is as close to a jab as he'll probably ever get as he doesn't throw anything at half power. His durability is proven as well as he has never been finished in a professional fight (he was submitted in a TUF house entry fight on season 18).

Kakai is another one who fell just short in making the TUF 18 house, losing a competitive decision to Chris Beal. While he isn't a great wrestler, Kakai's first instinct is to take the fight to the ground even though he isn't completely out of his element striking. He doesn't commit to his strikes resulting in limits in his power and he'll suffer from bouts of inactivity. His best success has come when he mixes in leg kicks with his fairly basic boxing. Kakai is at his best on the ground where he rarely has a problem with aggression whether it be going for a submission or unloading with ground strikes, though that aggression has cost him the advantageous position from time to time. Overall though, he is a solid grappler who will have the advantage in this fight.

The Expectation: Usually last minute fights are disproportionate, but this one in an exception. Neither fighter should have to cut too much to make weight, so that factor shouldn't come into play. But I'm going with Kakai as he is more well-rounded and won't have to deal with travel (he fights out of ATT) like Martinez will. Kakai via decision