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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
There is only one fight that has major implications on this card... but this is as big of a fight that Fight Pass has ever had. Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend her Women's Strawweight Championship against Jessica Penne in the first title defense to take place on Fight Pass. Jedrzejczyk has made herself a massive attraction to the hardcore fans, as the casuals have yet to latch on to the division. If Jedrzejczyk continues to put on performances as she did in taking the title from Carla Esparza, everyone will take notice of her before long.
As for the undercard, there wasn't much to offer in the first place, and injuries took their toll, knocking the amount of total fights from 12 to 11... almost 10 before a replacement was found within this past week. The co-main event features two fading featherweights whose best days are past them in Dennis Siver and Tatsuya Kawajiri, and a bunch of faceless fighters from there. It isn't that there isn't some prospects that could emerge in the near future, but none are true blue chippers.
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Masio Fullenv (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: Formerly fringe prospects look to solidify their roster spots. Yeah, not the highest of stakes here.
The Fighters: Amirkhani exploded into the UFC with an eight second KO of Andy Ogle, punctuated by a running flying knee. Despite the impressive nature of the debut, there is still much mystery as to his abilities at this level. Known as a big submission wrestler before, he went against type to earn his aforementioned victory, and whether he has improved his suspect striking is completely unknown. It could be much improved and still be below average for UFC standards. Regardless of whether he has or not, expect him to put on full display his extensive wrestling abilities. Though he possesses the ability to control his opponent with his wrestling, Amirkhani prefers to create excitement as he'll pounce on the first opening for a submission and will chain submission after submission together looking for the finish.
There is no doubt the sole reason Fullen is in the UFC is due to his Mexican heritage, as there isn't a single standout physical feature. That doesn't mean that Amirkhani will walk all over him despite the clear advantage in physical skills. Fullen is a skilled and technically sound boxer who throws with a lot of volume; he usually throws in combinations and is solid in the clinch. He does take his boxing experience for granted as he'll get lazy and drop his hands, ending up taking punches that he shouldn't. Though he has shown great improvement in his wrestling, particularly on stopping takedowns, he doesn't often attempt to change levels rendering him fairly one-dimensional and easy to strategize against.
The Expectation: I'm not sold on either of these guys being long-term fixtures, but I like the physical tools of Amirkhani much more than Fullen's. Amirkhani should get the fight to the ground and grab a submission pretty quickly. Amirkhani via submission in the first round
Mairbek Taisumov vs. Alan Patrick (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: A win here won't get either of these guys a notable opponent... but it will inch them closer to that.
The Fighters: Taisumov is very much an offensive dynamo that is sure to be a fan favorite provided he gets enough exposure. As he has grown more comfortable with the UFC he has thrown his combination punches in much greater volume which has resulted in two stoppage victories after opening up with decision win and loss. All of his victories came against opponents that he matched up very favorably with as they all had a poor wrestling background as wrestling is Taisumov's kryptonite. Taisumov has proven to be able to land his own takedowns with a solid single or double leg, but stopping them himself has been a different story. He does have some grappling chops and has a knack for getting his opponent's back, but that won't negate Patrick's abilities.
Patrick is similar to Michel Prazeres (Taisumov's lone UFC loss) in the sense that he is a big Brazilian grappler with some wrestling capabilities. He has been able to get away with less than ideal wrestling technique due to his size and strength, but it will certainly limit his ceiling unless he improves that technique. Considering it has been well over a year since his last appearance, it's very possible he has already improved, but counting on that would be unwise without proof. He is still quite raw as a striker, but has found some success with his natural abilities (getting an idea of what type an athlete he is?). He isn't afraid to throw spinning elbows and kicks in addition to flying knees, but doesn't set them up well. With a 74” reach, he has great potential to utilize an effective jab.
The Expectation: I love this fight as it is probably the closest matchup on the card. Both are clearly talented but still have massive holes they need to close before anyone can take them seriously as a break through competitor. A coin flip is probably the best way to go on this one as I've been waffling on this. Patrick via decision
Alan Omer vs. Arnold Allen (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: Allen has nothing to lose as he is taking the fight with one weeks notice and is simply happy to have a job in the UFC. But Omer could lose his job with a loss.
The Fighters: Omer was once upon a time a highly regarded prospect... in 2011. Then he took off over two years. He fought only once by the time he received his call to the UFC, leaving many questions as he headed into his debut. Even though he picked up a loss, he acquitted himself well, showing off a solid striking game from the outside punctuated by leg kicks. Despite being the smaller fighter, he was surprisingly effective in the clinch and showed improved takedown defense, something that was seen as his kryptonite. It still isn't superb, but his willingness to work on it is a great sign and he should continue to get better. Complimented by his above average submission abilities, Omer has been developing into a well-rounded martial artist.
Allen has a tough task ahead of him taking the fight with as little notice as he has, but it isn't impossible. Very young at 21, Allen is all about getting in his opponent's face and staying in it. The clinch is what he knows best and he'll look to drive his opponent against the fence right from the start as his striking from the outside is extremely fundamental and underdeveloped. But at 21, you'd expect something to be underdeveloped, right? As opposed to shooting for double legs, Allen prefers more of a Greco style of wrestling using body locks in combination with trips to get his opponent to the ground where his striking is much more efficient at this stage. He'll find it harder to implement this strategy in the UFC not just because of it being a higher level, but the fighters are bigger as he is a fairly small featherweight.
The Expectation: This is the one time being a small featherweight will help Allen as he cuts weight in a short time, but one can't help but feel it will still be too much to overcome. Omer may not be a massive featherweight himself, but he is experienced and savvy for being as young as he is. He'll be able to save his job this time out. Omer via decision
Niklas Backstrom vs. Noad Lahat (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: The UFC is trying to get uber-prospect Backstrom on track with a potential layup against Lahat. If Backstrom falls, he could be cut.
The Fighters: Backstrom followed up his very impressive debut against well-traveled Tom Niinimaki by getting careless against Mike Wilkinson, providing a valuable lesson about not taking anyone for granted in this sport. He has an ideal lanky frame that offers massive potential to develop into a fantastic out fighter, but for now requires close quarters to do his best work as he offers devastating knees in the clinch. Until he can develop more than kicks from the outside, opponents will look to counter him just as Wilkinson did as Backstrom's defense is full of holes. He does offer a dynamic submission game as well, excelling in transitions. His wrestling has a lot of room for improvement as he makes some novice mistakes at times, but he possesses a lot of natural skills to excel if he gets the proper training.
Lahat looked much more comfortable in the Octagon in his sophomore effort and picked up a clear victory over Steven Siler. Utilizing takedown attempt after takedown attempt, Lahat uses just about every trick in the book to get the fight to the ground whether it's a shot from the distance or a trip from the clinch. He'll telegraph his shots at times allowing his opponent to easily sprawl, avoid, or counter and will go to the well continuously as he is similar to Backstrom in his submission abilities. His wrestling should give him the overall advantage on the ground. Lahat throws a steady stream of leg kicks and usually offers his punches in combination. A lack of power and tendency to keep his head on-center make him fairly easy to counter.
The Expectation: This is more even than I made it seem in the opening statement. Even with that said, Backstrom does have the greater physical gifts, more dynamic striking, and is more opportunistic. I expect him to get a finish before 15 minutes is up. Backstrom via submission in the second round
Scott Askham vs. Antonio dos Santos (Middleweight)
What's at Stake: Making their sophomore efforts coming off losses, these relative newcomers need a win to avoid a likely pink slip.
The Fighters: A big and lanky prospect, Askham drew a tough debut assignment in Magnus Cedenblad and lost to one of the few middleweights who is bigger than he is. Cedenblad's size made it hard for Askham to impose his size and grind his opponent against the fence with elbows and knees as he usually does… well, at least with his usual amount of success. Askham is very kick dependent from a distance, offering shots to the leg in addition to front kicks which he offers as a funky alternative to a jab. Somewhat breaking the English stereotype, he is a solid wrestler. Unfortunately he lives up to the wrestler stereotype of not offering much off of his back. He isn't much of a grappler at all as he prefers to look for strikes on the ground with solid if unspectacular GNP.
Dos Santos lost his debut thanks a finger dislocation. Before that he was showing off his well-rounded striking set in a fun battle with Daniel Sarafian. A Muay Thai specialist, he is comfortable in all phases of standing striking from the clinch to the pocket to distance striking and uses a bit of everything to do so from punches to kicks to knees to elbows. Where he'll get in trouble is that he'll devolve into a brawler and rely too heavily on his chin at times. It isn't a bad chin, but that is never a wise strategy. Dos Santos has shown very little grappling or wrestling with solid takedown defense being the only skill that has been seen with any regularity, leaving the ground game a mystery besides the fact that, like Askham, he prefers to pound out opponents rather than submit them.
The Expectation: Representing some under the radar matchmaking, this is a closer fight than most believe. I'd say dos Santos is the better pure striker by a slight margin while Askham is a better strategist by a wider margin. That will be the difference. Askham via decision
Piotr Hallmann vs. Magomed Mustafaev (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: A tough debut for highly touted Mastafaev, though Hallmann could be on thin ice as he is fresh off of a suspension due to a failed drug test.
The Fighters: Considering the UFC doesn't seem to be playing around with PEDs anymore, it is hard to say where Hallmann sits in the eyes of the brass. A large and grinding lightweight, Hallmann certainly has the talent to be a fixture, but probably can't advance beyond that as he exemplifies the fighter who is good at everything, but not great at anything. He throws a lot of leather and does so both in the clinch and in the pocket as he utilizes nice boxing combinations. But his lack of punching power will prevent him from ever excelling in that department. He does a fine job of mixing wrestling, grappling, and striking into a nice bundle on the ground which is greatly assisted by his size. The strikes are used to distract opponents in order to help him pass guard to look for submissions.
Mustafaev is not only making his UFC debut, but his debut in a new weight class as well as he has spent the entirety of his career at welterweight thus far. It should make him a more effective wrestler not having to throw around larger opponents. This could be a great move for him as he would get manhandled by larger opponents at times. If he can make the cut successfully, it should make his aggressive submission game far more efficient. He has shown a willingness to go for submissions from unfavorable positions and has even had some success from there. If he can better control where the fight takes place, he could be a serious threat for anyone. He employs a pressure style on the feet so he can threaten with takedowns, but isn't a threat on the feet yet outside of his volume.
The Expectation: This is a very tough debut for Mustafaev. He is talented enough to pull off the upset and I think he'll develop into a fixture, but this looks to be too much too soon. Barring Mustafaev securing a submission in the midst of a scramble, I see Hallmann grinding out a decision. Hallmann via decision
Taylor Lapilus vs. Ulka Sasaki (Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: Young prospects too green for primetime are looking to make a statement about their abilities for the future.
The Fighters: Lapilus defeated Rocky Lee, a TUF China competitor, in his debut. It should be noted that beating a TUF China representative is less an accomplishment and more an expectation. Making his bantamweight debut, Lapilus comes out of France where GNP was outlawed. He did seem to adapt to that fairly well in addition to improvement in his defensive wrestling… but then again it was against Lee. His best skill is actually his striking skill set as he is very technically sound with little wasted movement. The statistics are bit deceiving though as he has zero KO/TKO's on his record, indicating that he suffers from a severe power shortage. Volume has been a problem in the past for him, but if he can throw as often as he did against Lee, he will be just fine moving forward.
Sasaki burst into the UFC by demolishing Roland Delorme in his debut in just over a minute before tripping up against grappling guru Leandro Issa. He was dominated in every area in that bout, even his striking where he was supposed to have a definitive advantage. Prior to his fight with Issa, he had displayed a solid jab and leg kicks from the outside while excelling in the clinch where he used his size to wear down his opponents in addition to utilizing trips from there. Grappling is where he truly excels though as he is extremely aggressive going for submissions being particularly adept at chokes and is willing to take often ill-advised chances. It's often exciting if nothing else. His wrestling isn't quite up to par with his grappling, but is adept enough that he'll have a significant advantage against Lapilus.
The Expectation: I think Lapilus could have a future, but would be better suited on the regional scene at this point. I'm counting on Sasaki's performance against Issa to be an aberration and use his significant grappling advantage to secure an early submission. Sasaki via submission in the first round
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