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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
The injury bug and pure stupidity may have given some hits to the main portion of UFC 187, but that doesn't take away from the fact that it is easily one of the biggest cards that the UFC has put on in a very long time. Two title fights and at least two potential #1 contender's bouts? Um, yeah, I think that sounds pretty good. There are a number of other bouts that should offer visual pleasure as well and the spoils are spilling over into the prelims as well. One of those potential #1 contender's fights? John Dodson and Zach Makovsky square off to likely determine the next contender for Demetrious Johnson's title, and it is headlining the preliminaries. Former title contender Rose Namajunas makes her first appearance since her failed title bid, and fan favorite Uriah Hall brings his pleasing violent stylings to the cage too. After a string of prelims that were easy to disregard, it's nice to see a card top to bottom with something to give a damn about.
John Dodson vs. Zach Makovsky (Flyweight)
What's at Stake: I know I already said it, but it's an important bout and I don't get to preview those often. Chances are this is a #1 contender's bout!
The Fighters: Dodson has been on the shelf for almost a year while recovering from a torn ACL. A former title contender, Dodson pushed the champion more than any other challenger has thus far, including dropping the champ during the course of their bout. Dodson no doubt possesses the most power in the division, being able to find the holes in his opponent's defense thanks to his unworldly speed and quickness. Johnson is likely the fastest fighter on earth, but Dodson is a close second… if his knee surgery doesn't eat into his abilities. Dodson's wrestling is a strength in the sense that he is extremely difficult to take down, as only Johnson has been able to do so. He isn't a slouch going for takedowns, but Makovsky's wrestling pedigree leads me to believe Dodson will ignore that and simply look for the KO.
Speaking of that wrestling pedigree, Makovsky is going to have to rely heavily on that if he wants to win, and he knows that. A former collegiate wrestler, Makovsky is among the best wrestlers in the division, likely only behind the champion himself (Yes, Johnson is that dominant). Makovsky might be able to match Dodson's speed, but he'll be using it to initiate scrambles and chain together takedown attempts, a specialty of his. Makovsky isn't without any talent on his feet as he is a more than competent technical boxer, but his standup lacks the explosion that Dodson offers and the last thing he wants to do is get into a firefight with Dodson. If he can keep Dodson wary of the takedown and work his angles right on his feet, he could very well steal the fight by decision
The Expectation: This should be a fun and competitive fight… up until the point Dodson lands a clean punch. Dodson has become a master at finding holes in his opponent's defense and landing a clean shot. More often than not, that is all he needs. Dodson via KO in the second round
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Josh Burkman (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Neither fighter is amongst the divisional elite, but would like to break into that level. The winner likely will earn a chance to do that.
The Fighters: Kim used to be a Jon Fitch-esque fighter who would drag his opponents down to the ground and grind out a boring decision. Ever since he scored a desperation KO of Erick Silva in October of 2013, he has adopted a go-for-broke strategy that is a lot more exciting to watch. Problem is that it is also a lot riskier, especially against someone with fight ending power. Now that Kim has tasted the wrong end of that strategy it will be interesting to see whether or not he goes back to his style of playing it safe or if he will continue to play with fire. Look for him to continue to apply pressure, but to take less chances, such as the spinning elbow that he got caught coming in with. With his judoka base, Kim is very difficult to get off of his feet and is skilled at flooring his opponents using a variety of trips.
Burkman has proven to be one of the more durable veterans in the sport, as he has never been finished by strikes in almost 40 professional fights. He was able to go the distance with a juiced Hector Lombard in his last outing, which really says something. He is a deceptively good athlete and stronger than he looks as well. He has proven to be tough to take down as a result despite not being the most skilled wrestler. Despite his skill level, he is quite relentless on his attempts and usually gets the job done as he'll chain his attempts together. Burkman doesn't offer anything flashy on his feet, but he is a more than competent boxer who switches up his stance quite a bit. Burkman's biggest weakness has been his tendency to get caught in a submission… something he shouldn't have to worry about with Kim.
The Expectation: There is a level of unpredictability to this fight as no one is totally sure how Kim will come out after his brutal loss utilizing his aggressive striking. As stated, I expect Kim to retain some aggressiveness, but to also fight smarter, utilizing more takedowns. Kim will win this, but he won't be the first to stop Burkman with strikes. Kim via decision
Uriah Hall vs. Rafael Natal (Middleweight)
What's at Stake: A pair of talented but schizophrenic middleweights looking to move out of the middle of the middle of the division.
The Fighters: Hall got off to a disappointing start to his official UFC career, losing the TUF 17 final to Kelvin Gastelum and his follow-up effort to John Howard. He has recovered nicely since then, as he has been able to refocus and is now showing the skilled striking and aggression (kind of) he displayed in the TUF tournament. He hasn't had the highlight reel KO's, but the kicks and fast hands are there, and are still capable of producing that. He could still stand to turn up the aggression level another notch or two, as he is content to wait for counters and can fall behind on the scorecards. Wrestling and grappling isn't a big part of his strategy, but he does have solid defense in order to stay on his feet and can even score his own occasional takedown when his opponent isn't expecting it.
Natal doesn't frustrate as many fans as Hall has, but that is only because he isn't as well known. Natal often utilizes a frustrating strategy that plays away from his talented BJJ game, but also suffers from a faulty gas tank at times. While Natal has shown more than a little talent and ability on his feet, he has also shown faulty defense on his feet and has paid the price for it. To his credit, Natal utilized a very smart strategy against the brawling Tom Watson in his last appearance, utilizing a lot of leg kicks from range and making a conscious effort to take the fight to the ground. Natal is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the division but he often struggles to get the fight to the ground. If he can capitalize on catching Hall's kicks and utilize his trips in the clinch (as he did with Watson), Natal can pull the upset.
The Expectation: While I won't be surprised to see a disappointing effort out of either fighter, Hall's talent is more abundant and easier to utilize rather than Natal's BJJ game. Natal has struggled every time he has received a step up in competition as well and Hall is certainly that. The question is whether or not Hall gets the finish. I think he will. Hall via KO of in second round
Rose Namajunas vs. Nina Ansaroff (Women's Strawweight)
What's at Stake: The UFC is looking to get the popular Namajunas back on track with a potential softball in Ansaroff.
The Fighters: Namajunas is incredibly talented and incredibly raw. She was able to get to the TUF 20 finals based off of that talent, as well as her abundant toughness, but was exposed in the title bout with Carla Esparza. Most agree that the 22-year-old still has a VERY bright future, but some wrinkles need to be ironed out, most notably her wrestling. Esparza had her way with her and exposed a not-so-well-kept secret to the rest of the world. Her striking defense is another notable chink in the armor, but her aggressiveness often covers that up as she is perpetually looking to end the fight, whether it be with an explosive kick or getting her opponents back during a scramble. Though her wrestling is weak, she is a fantastic grappler, picking up all of her wins via submission.
While Ansaroff is seen as the sacrificial lamb for the young Namajunas, it isn't completely fair to look at her like that as she isn't without talent. The problem is that it doesn't match up well with Namajunas' talents. While big at 115 lbs., Ansaroff isn't much of a wrestler, thus she won't be much of a threat to ground the exciting Namajunas. What she does have is a lot of power in her fists, as four of her last five wins have come via KO/TKO, a rarity in the division. As porous as Namajunas' defense is, it wouldn't be out of the question to see her catch her on the chin a few times and pull off the upset. Ansaroff isn't afraid to take a chance with a high-risk maneuver and might need to do so to catch Namajunas. She isn't much of a threat on the ground, but she does have respectable defense which she will need to use.
The Expectation: Best case scenario has this fight breaking down into a slugfest with flashy strikes aplenty. Even better is the fact that it's a highly likely scenario as well. Namajunas' grappling will come into play at some point and once it does, I expect it to be the end. Namajunas via submission in the second round
Mike Pyle vs. Colby Covington (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: A classic case of the young lion challenging the old veteran, as Covington looks to pick up a signature win over the crafty Pyle.
The Fighters: Having started his career before the turn of the millennium, Pyle has seen just about everything. The knowledge he has picked up over the years has allowed him to stay in the game and he was never much of an athlete to begin with, making aging less of an issue for him than it would be with most. Known primarily as a submission specialist, Pyle has developed some power in the twilight years of his career. Problem is he has also become chinny himself, as his last four losses have all come by KO/TKO. He has been in trouble when in open space as he is at his best striking in close quarters in the clinch and less prone to his opponent's killer shots. Though not the best wrestler, he is dangerous off of his back and crafty with his trips in the clinch to take the fight to the ground if he desires.
Wrestling is Covington's first, second, and third best weapon. A former wrestler at the hotbed of the University of Iowa, Covington is a plus athlete with a nice shot that will take his opponent off of their feet if he can get underneath them. He is so reliant on it though that he will telegraph it without setting it up at times, as his striking is still very raw. He did show improvement mixing in some kicks to the body, but he still doesn't put the proper body weight behind his punches to force opponents to respect his striking. He does have power as he showed in his UFC debut when he was able to floor his opponent and land vicious GNP, it's just a matter of him being able to draw it out of himself. His submissions appear to be limited to chokes, but he knows how to do that very well.
The Expectation: Win or lose, this will be a great learning experience for Covington as Pyle is certain to show him something he hasn't seen. At this point in Covington's career, I would assume Pyle is too much for him. Despite his recent power, I expect Pyle to go to his roots and pull out a sub. Pyle via submission in the second round
Islam Makhachev vs. Leo Kuntz (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Two newcomers in the UFC (one touted, one not so touted) looking to get their UFC career off on the right foot.
The Fighters: Makhachev is the touted one here as he is a training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, and is undefeated in eleven fights thus far. He is similar to Khabib in that he is a Sambo expert and a fantastic wrestler. Though Makhachev isn't the most technical fighter in either his striking or his wrestling, he is as dogged as they come, meaning if he wants to get his opponent down, he will most likely find some way to do so. He has proven to be top heavy with some very good GNP that is fully capable of ending the fight quickly and is fantastic at snatching a limb in the midst of a scramble. Makhachev is fairly stiff and simplistic on his feet. He uses looping punches to close the gap to instigate the clinch where he is most effective in instigating his takedowns with trips.
Kuntz hasn't fought in 17 months, as he was signed by the UFC in the first half of 2014 only to fall prey to injury before he made his debut over the summer. Having spent his career at welterweight, Kuntz has often been out-wrestled as he has been undersized. He should be helped by the weight drop, but it is hard to believe that he will find much more success as he hasn't exactly faced high level competition. That makes it sound like Kuntz doesn't have a chance, but he does have some solid boxing as he knows how to use his reach quite effectively, great cardio which he uses to wear down his opponent, and power in his punches. The best way to put it is he is the definition of scrappy as he has proven very difficult to put away and finds a way to win.
The Expectation: I always like seeing a guy like Kuntz get a chance at the highest level, but I also have tempered expectations. Makhachev is a far superior athlete and grappler and will be able to close the distance with ease and finish the North Dakota product. Makhachev via submission in the second round
Justin Scoggins vs. Josh Sampo (Flyweight)
What's at Stake: These flyweights had a fair amount of hype behind them at one point in their career. Now they are fighting to keep their jobs after two consecutive losses.
The Fighters: At 23, Scoggins is still far from a finished product and has shown both his abundant talent and his relative inexperience. Coming from a karate base, Scoggins utilizes a lot of hard round kicks and is an expert at timing his kicks at just the right time to put some hurting on his opponent. His boxing has improved as well, and he possesses the power in both aspects to end the fight. What has been even more impressive has been his surprising wrestling game as many thought him one-dimensional upon his UFC entry. Though he still has room for improvement, Scoggins has a quick shot and great guard passing skills. He can be sloppy as he left his neck for Moraga to take for an easy guillotine in his last outing, but I would expect those skills to be worked out in time.
Sampo is the definition of a savvy veteran, as he isn't a great athlete (at least by normal flyweight standards), but is dangerous with submissions and knows a number of little tricks to help compensate for his lack of athleticism. He needs to rely on those submissions as he is low on power in his punches, never ending a fight via KO/TKO. That isn't to say he offers nothing in his striking as he is usually solid defensively, capable of outpointing his opponents doing a good job of mixing in a variety of kicks with his punches. An NAIA wrestling champion, Sampo is an expert at blending his wrestling with his BJJ and is constantly looking for a submission opportunity, even off of his back. Look for Sampo to initiate scrambles against Scoggins.
The Expectation: The betting lines aren't giving Sampo enough credit as he isn't an easy opponent for anyone despite his brain fart against Patrick Holohan. I still favor Scoggins, as his power and athleticism should be too much, but Sampo is going to make this tough. Scoggins via decision
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