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By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist UFC 95 comes to us live (on taped delay) from the O2 arena in London on SpikeTV (unless you're Chris Gawn or Gavin Byrne, who live basically on another planet and will be paying for the event. Suckers). For a free card, this is actually pretty darn good. The undercard is unusually weak, but the main card should provide plenty of entertainment. No time for blabbering though, let's get to the picks!
PAUL KELLY VS. TROY MANDALONIZ
This is the easiest fight of the night to call. Kelly is a very strong wrestler, unusually so for a Brit, and Mandaloniz isn't a fan of the ground game. Advantage Kelly. Look for Kelly to take Mandaloniz down at will and grind him for three rounds. Mandaloniz is a BJ Penn disciple, so I'm sure he's good enough to at least not get submitted by Kelly, but he has fifteen minutes on his back to look forward to in this fight.
PREDICTION: Kelly by decision
NEIL GROVE VS. MIKE CIESNOLEVICZ
Grove is a monster of a man at 6'6, and he has to cut weight to make 265. He's also your typical Brit slugger, and he'll look to avoid the mat against the wrestler Mike (do you really think I'm gonna keep typing his last name?). I expect the hometown crowd to help Grove here, and Mike will be getting the jitters before he steps into the Octagon. Not good against a guy looking to knock your head off.
PREDICTION: Grove by T(KO) in round 1
BRIAN COBB VS. TERRY ETIM
Cobb steps in as a late replacement for Justin Buccholz, and I actually like this fight better. Cobb is no slouch with a 15-4 record, and he's also one of Urijah Faber's guys. Etim is a lanky, tough Englishman with good submissions, adequate striking, and, you guessed it, poor wrestling. He'll be spending a lot of time on his back in this fight, but that's where Cobb will end up making a mistake, and end up getting caught in his UFC debut.
PREDICTION: Etim by submission in round 2
EVAN DUNHAM VS. PER EKLUND
Dunham is another UFC newbie, but he trains out of Xtreme Couture so he'll be as prepared as you can hope for. Eklund is one of Europe's best lightweights, and he's been working on improving his striking of late. The experience should be the difference here with Eklund picking up a victory.
PREDICTION: Eklund by submission in round 2
JUNIOR DOS SANTOS VS. STEPHAN STRUVE
This is easily the most intriguing fight on the undercard. Dos Santos knocked Fabricio Werdum out of the UFC (literally) in his debut, and here he returns to battle the enormous 6'11 Struve. Struve becomes far and away the tallest fighter in the UFC, but I think he lacks the full game of dos Santos. I expect a long feeling out process here while dos Santos tries to figure out the length, but eventually he'll get a takedown and start working for the submission from there.
PREDICTION: dos Santos by submission in round 1
DAN HARDY VS. RORY MARKHAM
Our first fight of the main card should be a doozy. Hardy will have the hometown fans behind him, but I think that will end up being his downfall. Hardy is the more technical striker, and with a reach advantage, he'll be better served to keep Markham at a distance and pick him apart. Markham will undoubtedly look to close that distance and turn this into a close range slugfest. I think eventually Hardy will succumb to the cheers of the fans and engage in said slugfest. From there Markham will be able to land a fight ending shot.
PREDICTION: Markham by T(KO) in round 2
CHAEL SONNEN VS. DEMIAN MAIA
Ahh yes. Its the battle of the top two middleweights in the world...according to Chael Sonnen. Pardon the cliché, but I'll have some of what he's smoking. Maia is knocking on the door of the top 5 in the UFC, but Sonnen needs to beat someone other than a shell of Paulo Filho before he can start making those claims. I doubted Maia's ability to take down a striker who could keep him at bay, but he proved me wrong against Nate Quarry. Sonnen is a wrestler by trade, so that would seem to preclude any takedowns here, but I think he'll end up overconfident in his top control, and he'll willingly go down with Maia when he inevitably pulls guard. From there it should be elementary as Sonnen's submission defense has never been a strong suit.
PREDICTION: Maia by submission in round 1
NATE MARQUARDT VS. WILSON GOUVEIA
This is the fight I'm most looking forward to. It's possible a middleweight title shot is on the line here, but I have a hunch that's Demian Maia's to lose. In any event, this is a fantastic middleweight fight between two very skilled fighters. Marquardt has become a much more aggressive striker in the last year or so, and I expect that will lead to some fireworks on the feet as Gouveia is no slouch himself. I don't see either fighter wanting to test out the other's ground game, so the feet is where this should play out. Neither man has a great chin, so I can't see this going the distance. Gouveia is the better striker, and the more powerful of the two, but Marquardt is more willing to be hit and keep on comin'. I'm banking on Gouveia landing a fight ending shot before Marquardt has time to break his will.
PREDICTION: Gouveia by T(KO) in round 1
JOSH KOSCHECK VS. PAULO THIAGO
Like my colleague Jamie Penick, Koscheck has really started to grow on me. I still don't think I'd like to hang out with him at a party, but I can't help but respect him as a fighter. He's ever evolving, to the point that he uses his wresting only if he absolutely has to, and the guy just wants to fight. He probably won't reach his goal of six fights this year, but five is doable. Thiago is an undefeated Brazilian, so he can't be discounted, but he's making his UFC debut here and Josh Koscheck is not the man to do it against. From what is known of Thiago, he has a good submission game, but he lacks in the striking and wrestling departments. Yeah, that's gonna help you against Kos. Koscheck adds another highlight to his reel, and in the process, keeps climbing up the ladder to another welterweight title shot.
JOE STEVENSON VS. DIEGO SANCHEZ
Our main event features Diego Sanchez's first foray into the lightweight division. He'll face a Joe "Daddy" that's not only on the rebound, but also trying to figure out his place in the UFC's lightweight division. In two of his last three fights, he's been completely outclassed by the top two fighters in the weight class in BJ Penn and Kenny Florian. There's no shame there, but with another similar performance versus Diego, Stevenson might find himself no higher than "gatekeeper to the stars" for the remainder of his UFC days. The big concern for Sanchez is obviously cutting the weight for the first time, but he claimed a couple weeks ago that he was already walking around near 165. He made weight successfully and I expect him to be nothing but a bigger, stronger, more dominant Diego in his new weight class. Stevenson has had trouble being overwhelmed in his last two losses, and I expect that to be the case here.
PREDICTION: Sanchez by T(KO) in round 2
Fake money:
$400 on Eklund
$200 on Cobb
$200 on Gouveia
$200 on Struve
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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