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HAVERVOLD: A point by point breakdown for TUF 18 Finale's Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz main event
Nov 27, 2013 - 8:25:43 PM HAVERVOLD: A point by point breakdown for TUF 18 Finale's Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz main event

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By: Kale Havervold, MMATorch Contributor

Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz will meet this Saturday night in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale. Today we examine a number of factors heading into the fight and how the two match up against one another.


Striking technique/accuracy

Maynard

Gray Maynard has long been a staple near the top of the UFC's lightweight division, but this is likely not due to his striking technique and accuracy. While no slouch on the feet in terms of said attributes, this is not his bread and butter, as he is largely a power puncher who rarely uses other means of striking attack, such as kicks, in his fights. He has shown flashes of brilliant technique, such as the beginning of the second fight with Frankie Edgar, in which Maynard had him rocked as a result of some beautifully placed strikes.

Diaz

Unlike Maynard, Nate Diaz and his brother Nick are famous for their outstanding technical boxing skills. One reason why Nate's boxing is so well regarded is that he excels in throwing what some would call "rabbit punches." These are considered very fast and accurate punches that won't knock you out, but over a long fight, can really do some damage to an opponent, and that's without tiring you out as much as putting 100% into every shot. Diaz's striking style is to constantly pressure his opponent and bait them into a brawl, which Diaz normally fares very well in as he is able to throw fast and accurate punches and kicks that most fighters simply cannot keep up with.

ADVANTAGE – Diaz (1)


Striking Power

Maynard

Gray Maynard throws one of the hardest punches in the lightweight division and is capable of rocking anybody, evidenced by his near finish on then Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar, who is notorious for being difficult to KO or submit. When you put everything you have in your shots like Maynard often times does, what you lose in accuracy and technique, you make up for with brutal force behind your punches.

Diaz

As mentioned previously, Diaz's main goal in a fight is not often to go out there and knock a fighter out in the first round. Time and time again he baits them into fighting a fight that plays to his strengths, and striking power is not one of them. I'm sure he is capable of loading up and connecting with vicious and solid punches, but that is simply not his style. So until we see him start to "go for broke" more often and really load up on his shots, we have to go with Maynard in this category.

ADVANTAGE – Maynard (1)


Wrestling

Maynard

Maynard has a great history of accomplishments in the wrestling world, including becoming a two time Ohio state high school wrestling champion and being named an All American in his third year at Michigan State University, where he was roommates with former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. His double leg is one of the best in the division, and the power and strength in his takedowns is perhaps his strongest asset inside the Octagon. He has also stated that he believed he is the most accomplished wrestler in the UFC's lightweight division.

Diaz

Diaz does not have the pedigree or the wrestling skill that Maynard has, no one would argue with that. This is the one category in which I don't see any way how one could argue that Diaz is as well versed in the wrestling department as Maynard. That said, Diaz's notorious taunting antics inside the Octagon may be a tool that he can use on fighters to take them out of their game plan, which is likely a goal of his to try and nullify the wrestling of Gray Maynard.

ADVANTAGE – Maynard (2)


Ground Game/Submissions

Maynard

Maynard's strongest asset in terms of the ground game and submission game is his ability to smother and stay on top of his opponent. Once he gets you down, it is likely you will be there for a while as he is among the strongest fighters in the UFC's lightweight division. His submission game is nothing to write home about, but in reality, he would rather control you on the ground rather than try to risk submitting you.

Diaz

This category is perhaps going to be the greatest "chess battle," so to speak, in the entire fight. While Maynard often looks to take down and smother his opponent, he may have second thoughts against Diaz. The Stockton fighter has world class BJJ skills, especially from his back as evidenced by his signature triangle choke. Nate Diaz is among the best in the UFC at attacking with submissions from his back, which makes this ground game/submission category the hardest to score.

ADVANTAGE – Diaz (2)


Conditioning

Maynard

Maynard has been in three fights that have lasted into the championship rounds. Included in these fights are two against the notoriously well-conditioned Frankie Edgar. Although he tends to fade a little bit in the later rounds as his bruising style is very energy consuming, his experience in the championship rounds should not be taken lightly.

Diaz

Diaz himself has been in one fight that has gone into the championship rounds, and that was his championship loss to Benson Henderson, another fighter who is famous for being extremely well conditioned. Diaz's style is perhaps better suited as he rarely seems to gas throughout fights. He's also able to stay with his "stick and move" game plan much deeper into the fight than Maynard is able to with his grinding and power-focused style.

ADVANTAGE – Maynard (3)


Heart/Chin

Maynard

There is no doubt that Maynard has the heart of a lion and has a good track record of being able to withstand some punishment, though his last couple of outings have been lackluster at best. His only win in his last three fights was a very slow paced and somewhat "boring" fight to most against Clay Guida, and two of his last three fights have ended via a knockout loss. As a result, his only two career defeats have been by way of knockout. I don't think he is in danger of being knocked out in this fight against Nate Diaz, but he needs to be ready to go the distance as Diaz will surely be ready to.

Diaz

Nate Diaz has managed to fight his whole career without losing via knockout, up until his last fight with Josh Thomson. This is extra impressive as he has been in there with powerful strikers such as Marcus Davis, Melvin Guillard, and Donald Cerrone, all of which he defeated. This is all evidence of the chin that Diaz has, and his ability to take a shot. In terms of his heart, Diaz's is perhaps second to none. He brings the fight to his opponent until the closing bell no matter how far ahead he is on the scorecards. That and his granite chin are what give him the victory in this category.

ADVANTAGE – Diaz (3)

EDGE: Tie 3-3

This result shows that this fight could go either way, as both fighters have strengths and weaknesses that play off of the other. For example, If Diaz can survive the early onslaught of Maynard and keep off his back for long periods of time, he could be able to squeeze out a decision or earn a submission late in the fight. I believe, however, that this will not happen. I see Maynard taking down Diaz similar to how Benson Henderson did, keeping him there while avoiding the submission attempts that Diaz in all likelihood will be throwing at him. I like Maynard to earn the victory via unanimous decision.