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By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist The opening bout of UFC 94 is a fantastic match up pitting two of the most exciting lightweights in a bout which could well determine a future challenger for the championship belt. Nate Diaz was the winner of 'The Ultimate Fighter 5,' and is a tremendously gifted fighter, but he has drawn considerably more attention for all of the wrong things as he and his brother Nick are known for being troublemakers of sorts in the world of MMA. Clay Guida, on the other hand, has shown a similar talent for fighting, but has done all of his talking inside of the Octagon. Diaz is the more technically proficient of the two while Guida is known primarily for his heart, but both are more than capable of winning this bout, and with a title shot on the horizon should put on a fight which could certainly prove to be a memorable one from what looks to be a most memorable night for the UFC.
Nate Diaz sports a record of 10-2, with 7 of those wins coming by way of submission, and he is a brown belt in Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu. He holds wins over Josh Neer, Kurt Pellegrino and Alvin Robinson, with his only losses coming at the hands of UFC veteran Hermes Franca and Pancrase fighter Koji Oishi. Diaz is a perfect example of pure natural ability, as he is just such a gifted competitor who has really only just begun to realize some of his potential; but he has done himself a great disservice in gaining notoriety for all of the wrong reasons.
Both Nate and his brother Nick are supremely talented young fighters who have drawn more attention for the times they have extended their middle fingers into the air rather than the moments their arms have been raised in victory. In fact, Nate's time on 'The Ultimate Fighter 5' is memorable to most because of his confrontation with Karo Parisyan rather than the fact that he actually won the competition. One instance which showcases both the good and the bad of Nate was his bout with Kurt Pellegrino at 'UFC Fight Night 13,' and it took place as he submitted his foe. Nate executed a picture perfect triangle choke, and before finishing his man off he took the time to hit a double biceps pose before throwing up the trademark double middle fingers. There is a time and a place for showmanship in our sport, and this was a case of showing up his opponent and just taking away from what should have been a great moment for Diaz. His victory over Pellegrino served notice that he had arrived and was a force to be reckoned with, but his display of poor sportsmanship only left a bad taste in the mouth of many who deemed him not quite mature enough to handle all that his gifts should afford him.
His most recent showing against Josh Neer was absolutely fantastic, and he really showed his mettle in getting the split decision victory in what was the fight of the night. This was a back and forth battle in which Neer gave, in many respects, as good of a showing, but Diaz was in my opinion always one step ahead and really showed off his athleticism as he was able to step over and out of both a triangle attempt as well as an arm bar. Getting out of harm's way against a fighter such as Neer is impressive alone, but the manner in which he did so was just jaw dropping as far as the step over move which few could ever hope to pull off. In fact, if most would even try that in the gym it would be just cause for them to get scolded afterward, but in the case of Diaz it just works for him and he makes it look easy. I had hoped for him to rematch Neer, and one day wouldn't mind seeing it once more, but this is a great chance to see what he is capable of when he meets Guida.
Clay "The Carpenter" Guida is the king of the after parties in MMA. No kidding at all as this guy can always be found with a drink in one hand and a model in the other after one of his fights. Usually he makes the rounds for a while before selecting a lucky lady and dragging her back to his cave by her hair, but the guy fights harder than he parties. He truly is one of the good guys and is fast becoming a fan favorite for his high intensity style of fighting and his seemingly endless supply of energy. He sports a record of 24-9 with 12 of these victories coming by way of submission, and he is coming off of a hard fought unanimous decision victory over Mac Danzig at "Ultimate Fight Night 15." His stamina helps make him one of the most exciting fighters to watch, and probably doesn't hurt him with the ladies either, but he is going to need every bit of this against a fighter such as Nate Diaz.
Clay Guida will out hustle just about anyone, and in doing just that he was able to score his decision victory over Danzig. Mac Danzig is probably a more skilled fighter but he made up the difference in his efforts and summarily found a way to win when most had him as the underdog in that bout. It is this will which makes him such a dangerous opponent and especially so when you take into consideration that this is a guy who seemingly never gets tired and is always moving full speed ahead.
Guida holds victories over the likes of the aforementioned Danzig, as well as Marcus Aurelio and Josh Thomson; and while it stands as a loss on his record it is widely considered that he should have been the winner of his bout with Tyson Griffin at UFC 72. If any fight truly encapsulates Guida's style and serves as a true example of what he brings to the table it is this fight with Griffin. At only 27 years of age it would appear as if his best days are ahead of him, but if he is ever going to move from the category of opponent and on to the role of contender it is going to take a victory over Nate Diaz. Clay Guida needs this win and should be driven beyond belief to achieve just that, but he is facing an opponent who is considerably more skilled than he is and needs to be at his very best.
For Nate Diaz to win this fight he is going to have to get Guida on the ground and not absorb too much damage on the way there. Nate's stand-up is painfully awkward and he has the propensity for keeping his chin up, and he can ill afford to absorb too many blows while trying to get this one to where he is most comfortable. That said he should use his frame and his awkward style to his advantage in order to catch Guida off guard with a throw of some sort. Wrestling favors Guida, and Diaz should look not necessarily for the takedown but to get his opponent in the clinch and see what can develop from there. Nate Diaz is too good on the ground to be defeated by Clay Guida, and once this hit's the ground it should be his fight to win. However, getting to the ground and not taking a ton of punishment on the way down will determine his success in this one.
For Clay Guida to win this fight he should keep this one standing as much as possible, and utilize his superior boxing ability while taking advantage of Nate's lack of proper defense. Clay is the stronger of the two, and most definitely the superior wrestler, so he should be able to take Diaz down with will but should not look to do so in the early goings of this fight. He is going to need to out hustle Diaz and hope to tire him out before even considering taking this fight to the ground, and even then it would not be something I would advise him to do. Guida's wrestling ability should best serve him by allowing him to dictate where this fight is contested and keep it standing for as long as possible. This is not a fight that Clay Guida should win, but I wouldn't count him out; and if he can maintain his high level of intensity while keeping out of harm's way it is possible that he could eke out a decision victory or even pull off the stunning TKO.
Bent's Prediction: Nate Diaz by 3rd Round Submission
This fight should be one hell of a battle to open up the televised portion of the pay-per-view, and on another card could possibly even contend for fight of the night honors. I look for a great battle between two fighters who never say die, and while this one should be Nate's to win it must be said that I will not count out Clay; and if anyone has the chance to pull off the upset it is Clay Guida.
Note: Guida's after party is set for the Hawaiian Tropic Zone Las Vegas and features centerfold model Natalie Marie, so it's a safe bet that win or lose "The Carpenter" will spend the rest of his night getting hammered and nailing young ladies; so he won't need any of our condolences and we might just end up joining Nate Diaz in giving him the middle finger out of sheer jealousy.
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