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By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist
It is a time of clarity wrapped in insanity for the UFC heavyweight division. A fighter with a 3-1 record is the Heavyweight champion, having unseated a legend. A fighter once left for dead is the Interim Champion, having knocked out one of the greatest fighters ever to enter an MMA event. Things that were seen as foregone conclusions have been flipped on their heads, and we're left with a big money fight that most thought would have no chance of happening. So let's have a look at the once-barren, now promising, UFC heavyweight division.
THE CHAMP
Brock Lesnar (3-1): Few would have predicted when Lesnar debuted at K-1's laughable Dynamite!! USA card in June of 2007 that he would be the face of the UFC heavyweight division by the end of 2008. And yet that's exactly what has happened. By stopping Randy Couture in November, Lesnar defied conventional logic (I still say the logical choice was Couture in that fight) and became the man. And while he's not the number one heavyweight on my top ten list, he's certainly in the mix. Not too shabby for a guy with four professional fights. Lesnar has an extremely bright future in MMA despite having entered the sport a month shy of turning 30 years old. One shudders to think what he could have done had he been training MMA for say, five years more than he has. But that's beside the point. For now, he's the champ. There is no shortage of competition awaiting Lesnar, most notably the number one contender for his title.
THE CONTENDER
Frank Mir (12-3): Think back to November of 2006. Frank Mir had just lost to Brandon Vera in convincing fashion in just over one minute. I had written Mir off before this fight even happened, after I watched him go 1-1 against Marcio Cruz and Dan Christison and look terrible in both fights. And just two years later, Mir made me look like a fool. He came in and obliterated perhaps the second greatest heavyweight in the history of MMA with his boxing. I laughed off Mir's chances against big Nog along with everyone else, but Mir proved that he meant it this time when he said his cardio was better than ever, and he proved that he does know how to train leading up to a fight. The question remains though (at least for me), can he do it twice? Can he get excited and train just as hard to fight a guy he's already beaten? Will his cardio still be up to par in his next fight? Because to me, this is just like winning a title. Anyone can have one great performance. It's the elite fighters that can string them together.
A STEP OR TWO AWAY
Cheick Kongo (13-4-1): While he's hardly set the world on fire against top-level competition, Kongo has looked impressive since losing a close decision to Heath Herring at UFC 82 in March. He's destroyed both Dan Evensen and Mustapha Al-Turk in the aftermath of that defeat. Neither of those two are world-beaters, but the convincing wins have breathed new life into the Frenchman's chances at heavyweight glory. I would suspect that his next fight would see him face some stiffer competition, but I'm not sure who you match him up with at this point. Nogueira? Couture? To me, this would be an ideal matchup for Tim Sylvia if he's got any chance of returning. I'm not saying that Sylvia would win, but it would tell us something about Kongo either way. Time will tell, but if training at the Wolfslair has helped him as much as it seems to have helped Quinton Jackson, look out.
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3): You will not find a bigger Gonzaga apologist than myself. He's got size, he's got strength, he can strike, and he's a great grappler. His only question mark is conditioning. In losing by 2nd round TKO to Fabricio Werdum, Gonzaga looked horrible later in the fight. But if he can get his wind for 5 rounds, there isn't a fighter alive that would walk through the big Brazilian. He's got a wider skill set than your Frank Mir, but the cardio question remains. We should get an idea of how his gas tank has improved when he faces the next fighter on the list.
Shane Carwin (10-0): Carwin has looked nothing short of spectacular in his two UFC appearances. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise looking at his prior record. Carwin has won each of his ten fights by first round stoppage, only going over two minutes once. That's just a ridiculous statistic. Carwin has a wrestling background, but he's shown an affinity (and a knack) for striking as he has laid waste to his last three opponents with punches. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's not going to beat Gonzaga in under two minutes at UFC 96, but looking at these two fighters, that is a heck of a matchup, and it wouldn't be surprising if this was a title eliminator fight, depending on the performance of the winner.
UP AND COMERS
Junior dos Santos (7-1): Here's another guy who has won all of his fights in the first round, the most recent coming against Fabricio Werdum in what would be Werdum's final Octagon appearance. You may recall that yours truly predicted a knockout on the Torch's podcast preview of UFC 90 should Werdum come into this fight unprepared. And of course, dos Santos announced his presence by caving in Werdum's nose at 1:21 of the first round. He'll look to continue his run in the UFC at UFC 95, when he takes on the debuting Stefan Struve (16-2).
Pat Barry (4-0): While Barry may be a relative newcomer to MMA (all of his four fights came in 2008), he is certainly no stranger to combat sports. Barry is a veteran of K-1 and was notorious for his leg kicks. He strengthened that reputation at UFC 92 by blowing out Dan Evensen's knee in the first round with said leg kicks. Barry looks to be a little on the short side for a heavyweight, but time will tell whether he can hang with the big boys while facing tougher competition. If not, Barry could certainly be a handful at 205.
Cain Velasquez (4-0): Velasquez is another relative newcomer to the UFC, and he's looked every bit as impressive as Shane Carwin in his first two UFC bouts, also winning both by first round TKO. At 25 years old, Velasquez has a lot of time to develop as a mixed martial artist, and if his first four fights are any indication, he's going to be around for a long time. Velasquez will fight next at UFC Fight Night 17 against the debuting Denis Stojnic (5-1).
ON THE REBOUND
Randy Couture (16-9): With a bout against Fedor Emelianenko all but lost, it remains to be seen what Couture will do next. I wouldn't mind seeing him take on Nogueira in what could be a classic, but that's just me. Couture can't have too many years left in the tank, so the questions of where his next fight will be and how many more he's got in him will be interesting ones to answer. I can only hope that he's not going to fight Chuck Liddell for a fourth time as was rumored a few weeks ago. While it would make money, there is no intrigue at all in a fourth installment of that series.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1): After his shocking loss to Frank Mir, Nogueira will surely look to rebound. Talk of his chin not being what it used to be and all those brutal beatings catching up to him has to be a motivator for the former champion. Big Nog has said that he's going to take some time off after this one, and that's well-deserved. I'll say the same thing here as I said before – I'd love to see a Couture-Nogueira fight. That could tell us what both men have left. The irony is that Nogueira is only 32 years old, and "The Natural" is 45. That should be an indicator of the kind of punishment "Minotauro" has taken over the years, that people already think he's too beat up to be a contender anymore. I don't think Nogueira's done by any stretch, but I do have to wonder if he's still going to be able to take the kind of punishment he took from Tim Sylvia just two fights ago and pull out a victory.
THE POOL
The pool here is a bit deeper in the UFC than the last time we visited, but the fact remains that most top-tier established heavyweight fighters ply their trade outside the Octagon. We'll start with those who are currently entrenched in the mid-tier category and work our way up.
There aren't many fights coming up for the middle class of the UFC heavyweight division. The lone matchup on the horizon between two non-debuting fighters not mentioned above is between Jake O'Brien (10-2) and Christian Wellisch (8-4). I'd be surprised to see the loser of this fight back in the fold any time soon. Both have won in the UFC, but neither looked all that impressive in his last fight. O'Brien was steamrolled by Cain Velasquez while Wellisch was bulldozed by Shane Carwin in short order. Nothing to be ashamed of, mind you, but without either an impressive showing by both men, this could be a "win or go home" situation. Antoni Hardonk (8-4) has handed out three straight impressive beatdowns after looking horrible against Justin McCully (9-4-2) and Frank Mir. Hardonk has shown some nasty striking in all three bouts, and some improved grappling in his last fight against Mike Wessel (6-1) at UFC 92. McCully, for his part, won a decision against Eddie Sanchez (8-3) at Fight Night 16. That's a fight I haven't been able to bring myself to watch yet, as McCully is not the most dynamic fighter in the world. Eddie Sanchez has lost two of his last three (to McCully and Hardonk) and may be looking at an exit from the UFC if he can't get back on track.
Speaking of exits from the Octagon, I'd be surprised if Dan Evensen (10-4) made it back any time soon. He was completely outclassed by Kongo at UFC 87, to the point where I was almost surprised to see him on the UFC 92 card (where he was summarily beaten by the aforementioned Pat Barry). There's at least one fighter whom I don't suspect will be cut after his last loss, and that's Mike Wessel (mentioned above), who took his fight with Hardonk on short notice and proved himself to be extremely durable in his loss. The fight wasn't close, but he took some kind of beating from the Dutchman, and he kept on coming until the tank was running on fumes. One of the few long-standing veterans in the heavyweight division, Heath Herring (28-14), has not seen action since his mauling at the hands of current champion Brock Lesnar, and he has no rumored bouts on the horizon. Debuting heavyweights include the two mentioned above (Struve and Stojnic) along with Cage Rage veteran Neil Grove (7-1), who will debut at UFC 95 against an opponent yet to be named.
That's about it for the UFC heavyweight division, but it brings us to a veritable treasure trove of fighters who deserve a shot at the spotlight. We'll start with probably the two most obvious, they being Fedor Emelianenko (28-1) and Josh Barnett (23-5). Both men have seen action around the world and have proven themselves to be top ten heavyweights (with Fedor being the top in my book), but neither has come very close to signing with the UFC. Barnett is a former UFC champion, but has not fought with the promotion since vacating the title in 2002. Fedor, meanwhile, cannot seem to come to an agreement with the organization concerning a contract. He wants to be non-exclusive, and that simply doesn't fly with the UFC brass. Time will tell whether either man will be signed by the world's MMA leader, but it would be a shame to lose a lot of big-time heavyweight fights because of contract beefs.
Moving on, former UFC champion Andre Arlovski (14-5) has found nothing but success since leaving the organization in March of last year. "The Pitbull" is the only "star" that Dana White will confess to wanting to keep and not being able to. Arlovski will look to solidify his status as a top heavyweight when he takes on consensus number one Fedor Emelianenko at Affliction's second Pay Per View event this month.
Rounding out my list of the four most deserving heavyweights not currently on the UFC roster is Alistair Overeem (29-11-1). "The Demolition Man" has looked unstoppable since he moved to heavyweight in 2007. After a loss in his heavyweight debut to Sergei Kharitonov, Overeem has rattled off stoppage victories against Paul Buentello, Mark Hunt, and Gary Goodridge. He also fought Mirko Cro Cop (24-6-2) to a no-contest when knees to the groin stopped the fight. Let's also not forget his K-1 rules victory over K-1 Grand Prix Finalist Badr Hari. After losing some luster at 205, Overeem seems to be a new man at a heavier weight.
Three more guys I wouldn't mind seeing on the big stage include Ben Rothwell (30-6), Roy Nelson (13-3), and Dave Herman (13-1). Herman just lost to Mu Bai Choi (8-3) this past weekend, but he's shown a lot of promise. It looked to me like Herman gassed out in that fight, but with some more training he could prove to be a big handful.
I'm just getting over 2300 words here, so I'll call it a day. Did I miss anyone? Misplace somebody? Make your case in the comments, and if you're lucky enough I might just acknowledge your two cents. Make it good.
History of the UFC Heavyweight Title:
2/7/97 – M. Coleman def. D. Severn (Submission)
7/27/97 – M. Smith def. M. Coleman (Decision)
10/17/97 – M. Smith def. D. Abbott (Submission due to strikes)
12/21/97 – R. Couture def. M. Smith (Decision)
*Couture vacates title*
5/7/99 – B. Rutten def. K. Randleman (Decision)
*Rutten Retires*
11/19/99 – K. Randleman def. P. Williams (Decision)
6/9/00 – K. Randleman def. P. Rizzo (Decision)
11/17/00 – R. Couture def. K. Randleman (TKO)
5/4/01 – R. Couture def. P. Rizzo (Decision)
11/2/01 – R. Couture def. P. Rizzo (TKO)
3/22/02 – J. Barnett def. R. Couture (TKO)
*Barnett vacates title*
9/27/02 – R. Rodriguez def. R. Couture (Submission due to strikes)
2/28/03 – T. Sylvia def. R. Rodriguez (TKO)
9/26/03 – T. Sylvia def. G. McGee (TKO)
*Sylvia vacates title*
6/19/04 – F. Mir def. T. Sylvia (Submission)
*Mir stripped due to inactivity (Motorcycle accident)*
2/5/05 – A. Arlovski def. T. Sylvia (Submission)
6/4/05 – A. Arlovski def. J. Eilers (TKO)
10/7/05 – A. Arlovski def. P. Buentello (TKO)
4/15/06 – T. Sylvia def. A. Arlovski (TKO)
7/8/06 – T. Sylvia def. A. Arlovski (TKO)
11/18/06 – T. Sylvia def. J. Monson (Decision)
3/3/07 – R. Couture def. T. Sylvia (Decision)
8/25/07 – R. Couture def. G. Gonzaga (TKO)
*Interim Champion Crowned due to Couture's temporary UFC departure*
2/2/08 – A. Nogueira def. T. Sylvia (Submission) *Interim
11/15/08 – B. Lesnar def. R. Couture (TKO)
12/27/08 – F. Mir def. A. Nogueira (TKO) *Interim
Longest Title Reign: Randy Couture – 490 days
Most Title Defenses: Randy Couture/Andre Arlovski/Tim Sylvia (2 each)
Current Title Reign: Brock Lesnar – 52 days
Definitions/Parameters:
The Champ: Self-explanatory
The Contenders: Fighters who could fight for the title immediately and be taken as legitimate contenders. Fighters coming off of a loss will not typically be in this category.
A Step or Two Away: Fighters who could be in contention for a title with another victory or two over legitimate competition.
Up and Comers: Fighters who have no more than three fights in the UFC, who have shown promise. They're not always undefeated, but they have potential.
On the Rebound: Coming off of a high-profile loss or a loss in a fight that they should have won, and it will take a while to get the momentum back. Typically a champion who just lost his belt, as there's really nowhere else to put them.
The Pool: Other fighters of note within the division, who could work their way into the top three categories by going on a run and/or proving themselves/proving themselves again in the Octagon. Also those outside the UFC who could make an impact.
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