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WALKER: "Strikeforce: Tate vs. Rousey" breakdown and predictions
Mar 3, 2012 - 11:30:00 AM WALKER: "Strikeforce: Tate vs. Rousey" breakdown and predictions

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By: Brad Walker, MMATorch Contributor

"Strikeforce: Tate vs. Rousey" comes to Showtime tonight, and I'm going to do a run-through on the card with my picks for the main card along with some quick picks for the prelims. It is probably one of the most anticipated fights Strikeforce has put on without Fedor in a headline spot, and is definitely the most important fight for women's MMA since Gina Carano vs. Cris Cyborg. With the recent positive testing for Cris Cyborg this fight will likely determine the new face of women's MMA as far as Zuffa is concerned, and on the undercard with Sarah Kaufman fighting we could also find out who the next challenger will be. Let's get into the card!

Miesha Tate (12-2) (C) vs. Ronda Rousey (4-0)

This fight has a lot of hype for so many reasons, and each one of them is completely legit. Miesha Tate took out Marloes Coenen with an incredible arm triangle choke to win the title, and Rousey has proven to be the unmatched master of quick submissions. There is some grey area in my opinion, because all we have seen from Rousey is judo throws and arm bars, whereas from Tate we have seen strong wrestling, well balanced striking and submission abilities as well. For all we know as the audience, Rousey could be a one trick pony, and there is no doubt that Tate has spent a tremendous amount of time training to avoid the judo and arm bar combination. They both have obvious strengths, but do either of them have any decisive weaknesses?

Tate has been knocked out, sure, but it was in a bout that was her second fight in one night, and against the very powerful Kaitlin Young. Rousey has never really been hit... in fact in her four professional fights there's only a good solid two minutes and change of time in the cage, so it makes for very difficult judging criteria. This is likely to wind up as a grappling match, because there's no real reason for Rousey to try to stand and bang with Miesha. It may come down to who has the better cardio, or who has the patience to not make a mistake, either way it's going to be one heck of a fight, as these two certainly have no love lost for one another. In the end, I am going to guess perhaps against the consensus that Tate will avoid the arm bar and score a TKO victory in the late rounds to retain her title over the naturally larger Rousey.

Prediction: Tate via TKO in Round 4

K.J Noons (11-2) Vs Josh Thomson (18-4-1)

This is a very non-typical fight for a Strikeforce card like this, because it's almost like getting a hidden fight that has the potential to be better than the main event. It's a classic battle of striker vs. grappler, and it is sure to be another classic war. If it stays on the feet, fortune favors the powerful boxing of K.J. Noons, who will stand and bang with anyone who gets inside of the cage with him. If we go to the ground, Noons is likely in trouble, as Thomson has an incredible history of wins on the ground whether via submission or decision after holding down his opponent. Noons is going to need to stay on his feet at all costs and make every punch count against a grappler like Thomson, if he doesn't, his night could be over very quickly. I have to pick Thomson to take home a submission win in this fight, and then move forward to face Gilbert Melendez in a rubber match.

Prediction: Thomson via Submission in Round 2

Paul Daley (29-11-2) Vs Kazuo Misaki (24-11-1)

In the words of another great icon of a completely different sport, finally Paul Daley has come BACK to my television set. This match is again a striker vs. a grappler, but on a much different level, because if Paul Daley lands a single good shot, its lights out for Misaki, but if Misaki gets the fight to the ground Daley is going to be staring at the lights for a good solid 15 minutes. Daley makes his return after a stint in BAMMA and will look to work his way back to the UFC while Misaki is coming off of consecutive TKO wins in Japan. I am going to wager a bet that they stand and bang, and we see a knockout that is going to be highlight reel status for years to come regardless of who takes home the win, but I am giving the edge to Daley and his heavy hands.

Predictions: Paul Daley via KO in Round 1

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (14-3-1) Vs Bristol Marunde (15-6)

Now initially this fight was meant to include up and coming middleweight Derek Brunson ,but due to a failed eye exam he was denied a license to fight by the OSAC. In his place, Bristol Marunde of IFL fame will be stepping into the cage with the extremely dangerous Jacare Souza. With the removal of Brunson I honestly believe this fight has become an absolute car wreck for poor Bristol because he really doesn't stand a fighting chance against the former champion. Of course he could shock the world and but Souza's lights out, but this isn't Hollywood and we're not watching the classic "Underdog becomes a winner" sports cliché. This is quite possibly the easiest pick on the card; I am going to take Jacare via submission.

Prediction: Souza via Submission in Round 2

Scott Smith (17-9) Vs Lumumba Sayers (5-2)

This match up poses a problem for me; Sayers is generally unknown whereas Scott Smith has fought with some of the best. Smith is very capable of knocking out any and every opponent he steps inside the cage with, but so is Sayers. Sayers shocked the world when he stepped into the cage with Antwain Britt and absolutely destroyed him in his last fight. A coin toss is as likely to determine the winner of this fight as I am, but I have to lean towards the more experienced fighter in most scenarios, but I did that last time Sayers fought and boy was I wrong. This is going to be a strike fest until Sayers decides he's tired of getting hit, and I think that's when he makes a mistake and Smith will capitalize.

Prediction: Smith via KO in Round 1

Undercard Picks:

* Sarah Kaufman over Alexis Davis via KO
* Pat Healy over Caros Fodor via DEC
* Ryan Couture over Conor Heun via DEC
* Roger Bowling over Brandon Saling via TKO