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Staff Editorials
PELKEY BLOG: Thoughts from the weigh-ins, Predictions and Bets By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist
Sep 6, 2008 - 7:12:05 AM
So I ventured down to Phillips Arena last night to take in the experience known as the weigh-ins. Just a few thoughts...
-I'm worried about the crowd. Not the turnout, because I'm sure the place will be packed tonight, but the volume and rowdiness. I thought for sure Atlanta would be jacked up for the UFC circus coming to town, and hopefully they'll prove me wrong, but there were too many dead silent moments during the weigh-ins. I wanted sustained noise throughout.
-No surprise here, Chuck Liddell is still the biggest star in the UFC. It's almost as if the crowd wanted to save the vocal chords till "The Iceman" showed up.
-If anyone noticed that Dan Henderson got almost as big a reaction as Rich Franklin, its undoubtedly because Randy Couture was right behind him. I'm actually surprised a "Randy" chant didn't break out.
-The UFC has done a great job rebuilding Matt Hammill's image after casting him almost as a heel on TUF. That piece they did on him for the UFC 88 preview show did wonders for him. He was treated like a star by the Atlanta crowd.
-All in all it was a really quick event. I've watched the weigh-ins online plenty of times and always just assumed there was some down time in between the fighters weighing in that got edited out. Not so. It was one fight after the next in rapid fire succession and the whole thing took under a half-hour. No wonder its free.
UFC 88 PREVIEW:
JASON LAMBERT VS. JASON MACDONALD
Lambert has always been one of my guilty pleasures, ala Luke Cummo, but his glass jaw has reared its ugly head one too many times lately. I love the move down to middleweight where he should be able to out-power most of his opponents. MacDonald can take some punishment, and its a good thing, because he'll be taking a lot of it in this fight. Lambert will use his strength to avoid submissions and pound MacDonald out midway through the fight.
Prediction: Lambert by TKO in round 2
MIKE PATT VS. TIM BOETSCH
I'm almost tempted to pick the upset here. It just seems like one of those out of the blue, never see it coming type of things. I just don't have it in me. Boetsch, the Hammill fight aside, is a beast. Patt won't last long.
Prediction: Boetsch by TKO in round 1
ROAN CARNEIRO VS. RYO CHONAN
This provided us with our only semi-fireworks during the weigh-ins as these two went nose to nose and had to be separated by Dana White. This is a rematch of a few years ago the Chonan took by way of a cut. Carneiro wants his revenge, but I've vowed to never pick against a guy who has submitted Anderson Silva with a flying scissors heel hook. Should be a good scrap though.
Prediction: Chonan by decision
KURT PELLEGRINO VS. THIAGO TAVARES
I used to be really high on both these guys but they've both lost two of their last three fights. For Pellegrino I think it's just a case of losing to better fighters. He's just not an A level fighter and never will be, but I'm still a fan. For Tavares, he has all the tools, I'm just not sure about him mentally. After his loss to Tyson Griffin he won an uninspired decision over Michihiro Omigawa and got knocked out by Matt Wiman. I think if you pressure him, he's beatable. Pellegrino loves to push the pace, and it'll pay off here.
Prediction: Pellegrino by TKO in round 3
DONG HYUN KIM VS. MATT BROWN
This fight moved up to the main card after the Parisyan-Yoshida fight was cancelled. Seriously? Matt Brown made the Pay-Per-View?
Over Pellegrino-Tavares and Carneiro-Chonan? Ooookkaaaay... Anyways, this is a showcase fight for Kim. Brown has a punchers chance, but I don't see Kim giving him a chance to get off first. Kim will toss him around like a rag doll and school him on the ground.
Prediction: Kim by Submission in round 2
DAN HENDERSON VS. ROUSIMAR PALHARES
This might be the most intriguing fight on the card for me. People are calling Henderson over-the-hill and nearing the end of his career. I know the guy has lost his last two fights, but they were to Anderson Silva and Rampage. Give the guy a break. That being said, this might be a bad match-up for him. If Palhares can avoid the overhand right and get this to the ground, it should only be a matter of time til he locks on a submission. He needs to outwork Henderson and tire him out like Silva did (easier said than done I realize) and take advantage in the later rounds. Palhares also has the advantage in motivation. Win this and he can make an immediate argument for a title shot. If Hendo wins...he...fights Nate Marquardt? Nice reward.
Prediction: Palhares by submission in round 3
NATE MARQUARDT VS. MARTIN KAMPMANN
I love, love, LOVE this fight. Both guys are well rounded and like to push the pace. Kampmann should be next in line for a title shot if he wins. Marquardt doesn't care about titles, he just likes to beat people up. Sounds like a fun fight to me. I really don't know who to give the advantage to. I'm leaning to Marquardt slightly on the feet and on the ground, but I can't shake this feeling that Kampmann will not only pull this out, but finish it in the process. In a night of even match-ups, this is the evenist.
Prediction: Kampmann by TKO in round 2
RICH FRANKLIN VS. MATT HAMILL
Yet another fight where I'm picking the mild upset. On The Ultimate Fighter, it looks like Matt Hamill would crumble in a fight if he ever got hit in the face. After hearing the backstory (that he'd only worked with a boxing coach for two weeks, and had absolutely NO fighting experience prior to the show), perhaps that was because he never HAD been hit in the face. His chin isn't a question mark to me anymore. Franklin will have a size, strength, and wrestling disadvantage in this one. I think Franklin is tough enough to last the whole fight, but he's gonna take a pounding. He'll get his shots in too, but it won't be enough. Hamill takes a comfortable, but not dominating decision.
Prediction: Hamill by decision
CHUCK LIDDELL VS. RASHAD EVANS
To all the people who are picking Liddell to knock out Rashad: have you ever even seen Rashad rocked from a punch before? Yeah, me neither. He has a great chin, great takedowns, and ever-improving strikes. I'm not in the camp of thinking Father Time is catching up to Chuck Liddell, I just think the evolution of the sport is. He's as good as he ever was, everyone else is just getting better. I'm not saying Rashad will take Liddell down at will and hold him there, but I think the striking will be even, and four or five takedowns (and quick subsequent "get-ups" by Liddell) will be the difference in a decision.
Prediction: Evans by decision
Fake Money Picks:
I definitely had intentions of putting some money on Yoshida. Oh well.
$300 on Palhares (+180)
$300 on Hamill (+210)
$300 on Evans (+200)
$100 on Patt (+580)
