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By Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor It seems likely that BJ Penn will fight Georges St. Pierre in December. It should be a good fight, but in my honest opinion I think that GSP will soundly defeat BJ. Assuming that happens that means that BJ Penn will make a defense of his Lightweight title after having suffered a loss. I don't think that's as wrong as it sounds if the circumstances leading up to the loss are the same as when Anderson Silva made the jump up to Light Heavyweight. Silva had cleaned out the division and beaten all comers. He had beaten the 2nd best guy in the Middleweight division twice and was looking dominant. There were no clear challengers for his Middleweight belt. And that's the key right there. There was no one in the Middleweight division that made you say, "This guy deserves a title shot right now."
BJ hasn't defeated all comers. Last Saturday Kenny Florian beat Roger Huerta and beat him decisively. He's also on a 5 fight win streak and has won 8 of his last 9 fights. It's clear that Florian deserves a shot at BJ. I'm certainly not suggesting that BJ is ducking Florian, that'd be a dumb thing to do. But I do think that BJ is overlooking Kenny and that could easily lead to him losing his Lightweight title to KenFlo. BJ should be less concerned with avenging a loss to GSP and more concerned with defending his title. A fight against GSP can wait until after a Penn/Florian fight.
Perhaps the UFC thinks that if Kenny defeats BJ then that takes off some of the luster of a BJ/GSP fight. But the same can certainly be said about a BJ loss to GSP taking some shine off of a Penn/Florian matchup. Let's say BJ beats GSP, then what happens? Does BJ deserve to be the Welterweight champion? Is it fair for him to leapfrog right over guys like Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck? And guys like Matt Serra and Diego Sanchez deserve title shots before BJ. When Anderson Silva moved up to fight in the Light Heavyweight division he didn't face the champion right away.
BJ beat Sean Sherk in May for his first Lightweight title defense. The Penn/GSP fight is probable for December. That means that Kenny Florian probably wouldn't get his title shot until March or April at the earliest based on how UFC schedules its fights. That would mean BJ wouldn't have defended his belt in almost a year. And that's only if he doesn't get hurt in his fight with GSP. Going a calender year without defending a belt should result in automatic vacating of that belt. There's no reason for a champion to go that long without defending his belt.
If BJ wants to hold the title in 2 divisions then he needs to beat everyone in those divisions. He has at least one viable challenger left in the Lightweight division in Kenny Florian. BJ needs to at least get past Florian before thinking about moving up in weight. Plus, there's a handful of tough fighters in front of him in the Welterweight division who he should have to beat before getting a title shot.
It doesn't matter who BJ has beaten in the Lightweight division when it comes to his ranking in the Welterweight division. A title shot isn't a lifetime achievement award. You have to win yourself a title shot and the last 2 times BJ has fought at 170 lbs. he lost. But even if he had won it wouldn't really matter because those fights were 2 years ago. BJ needs to handle his business at 155 lbs. before jumping up in weight.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
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