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Tomorrow the game of musical chairs that has been the UFC 85 card finally comes to fruition, and we’ll get to see what I consider to be a pretty underrated card. Sure, there’s no title fight, and I’ve always said I think there should be a title fight on every PPV, but there are some seriously exciting fights here (on paper at the very least.) Time between now and the event is short, so let’s break this thing down, shall we?
Jason Lambert vs. Luiz Arthur Cane (Light Heavyweight)
Lambert: I’m a big fan of Lambert despite his recent inconsistencies. He thrashed Renato Sobral at UFC 68 but was unable to fight again until January of this year, where he was handing a beatdown to Wilson Gouveia until a big left hand put him to sleep.
Cane: I don’t know a lot about Cane, other than the fact that he’s won most of his fights by early TKO. That makes this one a tough one to pick for me. There’s some real buzz about Cane, and I think he had a good chance against James Irvin before he was DQ’d for a knee to the face of his downed opponent.
Breakdown: This could really go either way, as Lambert also has some serious power along with nasty ground and pound.
Pick: I’m going to go ahead and pick Lambert here by TKO in the 2nd round, but I’m a little hesitant about it.
Eddie Sanchez vs. Antoni Hardonk (Heavyweight)
Sanchez: This will be Sanchez’s 5th fight in the UFC, and he’s quietly, yet emphatically, won his last two fights. Sanchez has a big right hand that can put an elephant to sleep, but his ground skills are less proven, at least inside the Octagon. His only professional loss was likely his most high-profile fight, and it came against Mirko Cro Cop, where he played the part of sacrificial lamb in the Croatian’s UFC debut.
Hardonk: The Dutchman is also a vaunted striker, and he showed some enormous leg kicks in his 17 second win against Colin Robinson at UFC 80. To say that Hardonk is unproven on the ground is a mistake, as he is proven to have no ground skills whatsoever. He had numerous opportunities in his plodding loss to Justin McCully to look for submissions, but he never capitalized. He was also a victim of a Frank Mir submission, which while predictable for Hardonk, is nothing to be ashamed of.
Breakdown: This is exactly the type of fight that Hardonk needs: an opponent that will stand in front of him and trade. Sanchez will not be afraid of Hardonk’s striking, and will likely pay for it with some bruised legs. Hardonk hasn’t been knocked out before, but seeing as how he hasn’t exactly fought the world’s best, that’s not saying much. If he loses to Sanchez he’ll likely be done in the UFC for the time being, and that fact can’t be lost on him, despite the thin state of the heavyweight division.
Pick: I’m going with Hardonk here in a first round TKO. Sanchez has a chin, but I think Hardonk will take his legs away and open up that chin for some clean strikes to the head. That having been said, if Sanchez is at all inclined to take it to the ground, and if he’s got any kind of ground skills at all, he can win the fight. I just don’t think that will happen.
Jess Liaudin vs. Paul Taylor (Lightweight)
Liaudin: Liaudin has been a fixture in the UFC’s European events, going 2-1 overall in his Octagon appearances. I can’t help but think that he’s ruined the UFC’s plans by tapping Denis Siver and knocking out Anthony Torres in successive bouts. The Frenchman has been consistently inconsistent in his career, usually being either on a winning streak or losing streak. Most of Liaudin’s wins have come by submission, while most of his losses have come by TKO.
Taylor: Paul Taylor has also been a constant presence in Europe for the UFC. He lives up to his “relentless” nickname, always pressing the action, and he was involved in the Fight of the Night in each of his last outings. Taylor has also fought thrice in the UFC, though his record is 1-2 with losses to Marcus Davis and Paul Kelly.
Breakdown: This is a rematch of a fight that took place in Cage Rage in 2003. Taylor won that fight by decision in what was his second career fight. This one won’t go the distance. Paul Kelly was able to keep Taylor on the ground in their fight, but Liaudin won’t be able to do the same thing, despite his grappling prowess. Taylor also keeps a pace that Liaudin won’t be able to hold.
Pick: Taylor by armbar in the second.
Thiago Tavares vs. Matt Wiman (Lightweight)
Tavares: Thiago Tavares is 13-1 overall, with his only loss coming at the hands of Tyson Griffin. Tavares has looked like a buzzsaw going through his other opponents, out-hustling and out-classing them. His most impressive win was over Jason Black with a triangle choke.
Wiman: Wiman is 3-1 in the UFC, matching Tavares’s Octagon record. His most high-profile fight was a loss to Spencer Fisher in a very exciting fight where Fisher landed a flying knee to finish the fight. Of course, that was before Wiman’s stint on TUF 5, since which he’s won three straight. Wiman is a bit of an enigma to me. I like his style and I think he’s a solid fighter, but I never quite know what I’m going to get out of him. His record bears that out as well, as he has three wins each by TKO, submission, and decision.
Breakdown: I like Wiman, but I just don’t think he’s going to be able to keep up with Tavares, who is just a notch above Wiman’s skill level. It’s possible that this one could go the distance, but if I had to guess (and I do), I don’t think it’s going to.
Pick: Tavares by submission in the third.
Kevin Burns vs. Roan Carneiro (Welterweight)
Burns: I know nothing about Kevin Burns, other than that he’s 5-1 and a late replacement for Ryo Chonan (which is disappointing, because Chonan-Carneiro was a pretty intriguing fight.)
Carneiro: “Jucao” holds victories over Rich Clementi and Tony DeSouza in the UFC, with his one loss coming to Jon Fitch in a great fight where Fitch was able to wear down and eventually submit Carneiro. The Brazilian has excellent grappling and decent striking, though he’s not going to light up too many opponents with punches (Tony DeSouza aside.)
Breakdown: Um…Burns doesn’t have much time to prepare, so…the safe bet here is that he gets tapped in his debut.
Pick: Carneiro by first round submission.
Martin Kampmann vs. Jorge Rivera (Middleweight)
Kampmann: The Danish Muay-Thai specialist has been out due to injury since his impressive submission win over Drew McFedries in March of last year. He’s been very impressive in his UFC fights thus far, dominating both Crafton Wallace and the otherwise-undefeated Thales Leites before the win over McFedries. Kampmann has great strikes and solid grappling to go along with it.
Rivera: Rivera’s UFC career has been all ups and downs. One minute he’s beating David Loiseau, and the next he’s losing to Chris Leben. Rivera’s latest roller-coaster ride involved a quick KO loss to Terry Martin, followed by a quick knockout win over the increasingly-chinny Kendall Grove. Rivera is primarily a striker, but he has pulled off the occasional choke.
Breakdown: Rivera doesn’t have much of a chance here. He’s past his prime, and Kampmann can certainly take a punch. Kampmann is the superior striker and grappler, so I see this going one of two ways: either Kampmann wears out Rivera in the first, then knocks him out in the second, or he goes straight to the floor and submits Rivera. Don’t get me wrong: Rivera isn’t bad. Kampmann is just good.
Pick: Kampmann by TKO in round 2.
Marcus Davis vs. Mike Swick (Welterweight)
Davis: Don’t look now, but this could be Davis’s coming out party. Unquestionably the most improved alum of any TUF season, Davis’s transition from one-dimensional striker to complete mixed martial artist has been well-documented. Since his cut-stoppage loss to Melvin Guillard at the TUF 2 Finale, Davins has rattled off 11 straight wins – winning by submission, TKO and decision on different occasions. Davis still possesses hellish striking capabilities (just ask Jess Liaudin or Jason Tan), but now he’s also very slick with his grappling.
Swick: Mike Swick is another TUF alum, coming off the first season of the reality show. He made his name in the UFC by winning four straight fights in the first round coming out of the show. Since the last fight in that streak (a win over Joe Riggs), we haven’t seen that same Mike Swick. This Swick has been less confident and less willing to attack for fear of counter-striking. He was out-muscled by Yushin Okami in his last middleweight fight, and once he realized that Okami was overpowering him, he would no longer go after his opponent. He also hardly lit up the world with his welterweight debut – a mostly hesitant decision win over Josh Burkman.
Breakdown: I’d be surprised if this isn’t the fight of the night. I’m really looking forward to this one. Swick won’t be allowed to stand back and wait in this fight, because he’ll get knocked out. Davis does not kid around in the Octagon, and he’ll take the fight to Swick. I think Davis has the edge in power here, while Swick likely has a speed advantage. That having been said, I’m going to say that there’s no chance of Swick knocking out Davis. His only chance is to catch Davis getting over-eager and submit him. I don’t see that happening.
Pick: Look for Davis to wear down Swick over the first round with punches and kicks, and take the TKO win either at the end of the first or early in the second.
Michael Bisping vs. Jason Day (Middlweight)
Bisping: “The Count” is yet another TUF alum who will fight for the second time at a new weight. Undefeated at 205 pounds, Bisping had no desire to cut. But once he lost a decision to Rashad Evans, the move was on. Bisping made a successful debut against Charles McCarthy in what would prove to be McCarthy’s last professional fight. He looked good in the process, peppering McCarthy with strikes and eventually forcing “Chainsaw” not to answer the bell for round two due to an arm injury. Bisping is primarily a striker, but has been known to pull off an occasional submission.
Day: Jason Day toiled away on the smaller shows for a good six years before making his UFC debut in Canada against top prospect Alan Belcher at UFC 83. This was after a split decision win over David Loiseau. Day put on a rubber guard clinic in that fight, landing elbows from the bottom and absorbing no punishment from Belcher in that position. Day would eventually score the TKO, making his Octagon debut a successful one. He’ll have the chance to take a big leap up the rankings in the UFC with a win over Bisping.
Breakdown: I haven’t seen enough of Day to be completely sold on him, but he was certainly impressive in his win over Belcher. All in all though, I’d have to give the edge to Bisping, who will be fighting in front of his home crowd (as Day did at UFC 83) and who has more experience on the big stage.
Pick: Bisping by TKO in round three.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Brandon Vera (Heavyweight)
Werdum: Werdum made his name in Pride, where he lost only to current UFC champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Sergei Kharitonov. He is largely a grappler who looks to submit his opponents, and does not have the most exciting style. He’ll look to keep this fight on the ground and smother the smaller Vera. Werdum was able to score a TKO over Gabriel Gonzaga, but that seemed to be more due to Gonzaga’s apathy than anything done by Werdum.
Vera: After a quick start in the UFC with wins over Justin Eilers, Assuerio Silva and Frank Mir, “The Truth” came crashing back to Earth when he lost a lackluster decision to Tim Sylvia. Vera was unable to solve Sylvia’s reach advantage in that fight, and was hesitant to engage throughout. He prefers to stand and strike, where he will hold a decisive advantage over Werdum.
Breakdown: If Vera is able to keep the fight on the feet, he wins. If Werdum gets it to the ground, I don’t know that he’ll be able to submit Vera, but he’ll certainly be able to hold him down for three plodding rounds. Remember what Werdum did when he realized he couldn’t take Andrei Arlovski down? I’ll remind you: nothing. So I’m looking for some takedown attempts early by Werdum, and whether they’re successful will tell the story of the fight.
Pick: I think Werdum will be able to hold Vera down for a round, after which Vera will become frustrated and do everything in his power to keep the fight on the feet. When he does, he’ll either knock Werdum out or make a mistake and get submitted. The better bet here could be Werdum, but I’m going with Vera by TKO in the second.
Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites (Middleweight)
Marquardt: His pre-UFC resume speaks for itself. Marquardt is the seven-time King of Pancrase – an achievement that none other can boast. He is a very slick grappler and possesses underrated striking. The lone blemish on his UFC record is a loss to Anderson Silva. And he’s hardly the only one to have fallen at the hands of the Middleweight Champ.
Leites: This will be Leites’s first real test since losing to Martin Kampmann in lopsided fashion in his UFC debut. Leites is a highly-touted up-and-comer in the UFC who also possesses excellent grappling skills.
Breakdown: This one is simple. Neither guy is going to knock the other one out on the feet, so it’s going to the floor early. Unlike Werdum-Vera, however, this one could be a barnburner on the ground. Both guys have good ground and pound if they’re able to get a mount, and both are submission artists. I’d probably give the edge in stamina to Marquardt, who has been the distance more than once without flinching, and that could well be what decides the fight.
Pick: Marquardt by Unanimous Decision.
Matt Hughes vs. Thiago Alves (Welterweight)
Sure, it’s not the original main event of Rua vs. Liddell. But it’s still plenty interesting.
Hughes: Do I really need to say anything here? Hughes is the longest reigning welterweight champion in UFC history, and he’s a living legend in the sport. That having been said, Hughes hasn’t been dominant since he stopped the ancient Royce Gracie in one of the least-surprising UFC main events in recent memory. So the big question in this one will be whether Hughes has still got it or whether the game has caught up with him.
Alves: Thiago Alves has shown some devastating striking prowess in his last five fights, all of which he has won. He stopped both Chris Lytle and Karo Parisyan; two fighters that Hughes beat but was unable to finish. Most impressive has to be the Parisyan stoppage—though “The Heat” claims it was early, he was clearly in a lot of trouble when the ref stepped in. Alves is hardly one-dimensional, however, as he is capable of fighting off of his back.
Breakdown: Hughes would be the safe pick here. He clearly holds the edge in wrestling, and he’s strong as an ox when he gets on top of an opponent. The problem is that if Alves can keep it on the feet, Hughes has zero chance. And in order to get Alves down, Hughes is going to have to get in close. When he ties, he’ll find himself with a mouthful of fist and knee. If Hughes does get Alves down, he won’t be able to finish “The Pitbull”, so he’ll have to hold him down for three rounds. This is not going to happen. Hughes was great in his time, but it is not his time anymore.
Pick: Alves by TKO in round 3.
So there you have it. Eleven fights in all, and hopefully we get to see a good chunk of them tomorrow.
