Contributors/Columnists
SHAWN ENNIS
JASON BENT
MIKE JARSULIC
MATT PELKEY
ALEX WILLIAMS
BRUCE MITCHELL
JED GOODMAN
FRANK HYDEN
JASON BENT
JOHN TAYLOR APPLY TO JOIN OUR TEAM
Opinion & Analysis
:
Keller's Take
KELLER'S BLOG: My pick for Lesnar vs. Herring, thoughts on tonight's show By Wade Keller, MMATorch supervising editor
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:24:16 AM
My pick tonight is Heath Herring. But I wouldn't put my money on this fight, even with the odds in Brock Lesnar's favor.
My reason for picking Herring is simple. I need to see Lesnar take punches and not fall down before I can pick him in a fight against someone of Herring's level. He hasn't faced that yet. Until I see that, I'm going to be skeptical. I assume that lingering question ends tonight and he'll show whether he can take some punishment.
If Lesnar wins, he'll take Herring down early and pound away at him for an extended period. I'm not confident yet, either, that he can finish a fight that way. I remember early Mark Coleman fights where he could control his opponent on the ground, but couldn't finish him.
What works in Lesnar's favor is that he's been in big fight situations before, both real competition and staged performance. The size of the crowd, the big stakes in the fight, none of that is unfamiliar to him, so that makes him something more than the virtual rookie newbie to MMA he'd otherwise be considered.
If Lesnar wins, I'll be impressed if it's by submission. Less so, but still impressed if it's by stoppage from a barrage of punishment on the ground. And very impressed if it's by knockout. If he wins, I'm expecting it by decision.
If Lesnar loses, it could be fast, and it could be by knockout. I would be surprised if he's controlled on the ground and loses by points. I think he'll either make a mistake and get knocked out or have to tap again, or else he'll last a long time and have a fresh start twice at the starts of the second and third rounds.
Herring is a more intriguing opponent for Lesnar than Coleman would have been. Unfortunately for Herring, he has less to gain than a typical "underdog." If he wins, especially if it turns out Lesnar has a weak chin or is mistake prone and vulnerable to a submission, what has he gained? Everyone will write off Lesnar as overrated and not for real, rather than Herring having accomplished something.
This is a tough fight to call only because we have so little to go on with Lesnar in the Octagon atmosphere, so he could turn out to be the fighter of the decade and go on a winning streak and have a long reign as heavyweight champ. I just want to see him beat somebody, and take a punch and keep on going, before I assume he's at that level.
The big fight atmosphere at Target Center in Minneapolis tonight should be crazy, and the pro-Lesnar reaction could actually work against him as he fights to impress rather than to win. We'll see. I've been in that building before for game seven of the NBA Western Conference Championships with Kevin Garnett the showcase player for the Timberwolves. I've been there for big WWE and WCW Nitro events. I've been in there for big-name concerts including hometown Prince. I expect tonight's UFC atmosphere to rival all of those.
