Ennis' Take
ENNIS: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz booking at UFC 133 a rare late replacement with almost no downside
Jul 16, 2011 - 12:00:46 PM ENNIS: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz booking at UFC 133 a rare late replacement with almost no downside

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By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

As you've no doubt heard by now, Tito Ortiz will step in on only three week's notice to fight former Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans at UFC 133. This fight may not do the business that Evans-Jones could have if that fight had gone through as was originally planned, but you can bet that it's got potential to beat out what Evans vs. Phil Davis would have done. This is actually a rare case where a guy stepping in on short notice helps all parties involved, with almost no downside. Let's look at the possible angles.

First off, we have the promoter. The UFC benefits here because even though Tito Ortiz has lost some drawing power since the prime of his career, he's still more of a draw than up-and-comer Phil Davis. That goes especially since Ortiz is coming off of an almost impossible win over Ryan Bader just a couple of short weeks ago. Had Ortiz lost that fight, there's no way he's even asked to fight Evans. But the result of that fight being what it is, the UFC had the opportunity to insert a relatively fresh Ortiz into this rematch, and people will actually want to see it happen. The fight is an easy one to promote. Is Tito Ortiz back? Can Rashad Evans shake off the rust of 15 months on the shelf to take out a suddenly-hot former champion? Was Ortiz ever as washed up as we thought? All those injuries - were they really legit? If so, it's not inconceivable that Tito is back, right? Right?! There's your hook. Easy.

Outside of the gimme fight promotion, there's the answer to what you do with Tito Ortiz as the promoter. You want Tito's drawing power to at least hold steady for as long as possible, if not increase. If that's going to happen, you've either got to give him a winnable fight or you've got to give him a fight with a story. Had the UFC needed to wait to match up Ortiz, the right scenario doesn't necessarily come along. You can't give him an easy opponent, but you'd like to give him either someone he can beat or someone that doesn't take away his momentum with a loss. That's what makes this a double win for the UFC. If Ortiz loses, he's got the built-in excuse of taking the fight on three weeks' notice. He doesn't even have to have a broken skull for people to sympathize. And if he wins? That's just money in the bank. The same thing goes for Rashad - if he wins, it actually has some value given how good Ortiz looked in his 27 seconds' cage time. If he loses, he just ran into a suddenly-hot Ortiz at the wrong time. It could happen to anyone.

So look at it from Tito's perspective. First he tweets something about having a lot going on and not being able to take the fight. We get the excuses that we're so used to from him, and no one gives it a second thought. Then Lyoto Machida holds the UFC up for a bunch of cash, and suddenly Ortiz has a change of heart. Why? Because he can't lose. Look at it this way: Tito basically already beat Evans once, and Evans' resume since then is hardly all that intimidating, his title reign notwithstanding. He took a split decision over the now-middleweight Michael Bisping, knocked out a washed-up Chuck Liddell, out-quicked Forrest Griffin, got smashed by Machida, then took a couple of snoozers over Thiago Silva (which Silva was starting to turn around in the third) and a very rusty and blown up Quinton Jackson.

I'm not trying to downplay what Evans has done here - I'm saying that from Ortiz's perspective, it's not as if he has a lot of reason to doubt himself based on that record. So if Tito wins this fight, he's on his way. Everyone will be forced to recognize that he's back and that he's "in the mix." It's a dream scenario, and not one that was necessarily going to pan out had he been forced to wait a while until his next fight. Of course, a loss derails his comeback a little, but as stated above, short notice is the universally accepted excuse. Nevermind that Matt Hamill out-wrestled Ortiz not all that long ago, and that Evans will have a ridiculous speed advantage. You take a fight on short notice, you get the benefit of the doubt.

For Evans, the fight is a bit more risky. Rashad basically has a title shot on the line here; something that can't necessarily be said of Ortiz. If he wins, he keeps his spot behind "Rampage" Jackson as next in line for a shot at Jon Jones. If he loses, the light heavyweight division is not the easiest place in which to claw your way back to the top. But at the same time, Evans has been preparing for Phil Davis. When your opponent changes this close to an event, especially with all the attention heaped on the change, you can't be expected to simply adapt. Three weeks isn't a lot of time to change strategies. So a loss doesn't necessarily destroy Evans, but it certainly is more of a setback for him than it would be for Ortiz.

All in all, this was the fight (along with Evans-Machida) that made the most sense. The UFC gets a better chance to promote, Ortiz has the shot at staying hot, and Evans gets a winnable fight (probably more winnable than Davis) and a chance to avenge a draw that was a point deduction away from being his first loss. Even though I'm pretty sure I know what's going to happen here, Ortiz has planted enough doubt in my mind that I at least want to see this fight. I don't know that I would have said that two weeks ago, but I'm saying it now - and surely I'm not the only one.