Ennis' Take
ENNIS: Lay of the Land - Welterweight Division: Detailed overview and breakdown of current state of division
Jan 25, 2010 - 1:52:48 AM ENNIS: Lay of the Land - Welterweight Division: Detailed overview and breakdown of current state of division

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By Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

It's been a while since we've seen a Welterweight Title fight in the UFC (July, to be exact,) so this is as good a time as any to catch up with what's going on in the division. The top looks pretty much the same, but we've got some new faces to catch up with, and some new fighters making a push for their shot at the French Canadian who reigns supreme at 170. This is a deep, deep division right now even with the huge wealth of talent that sits in the top five or six spots. Let's have a look.

THE CHAMP

Georges St. Pierre (19-2): Who can topple the mighty GSP? Reports coming from his camp are saying that he's bigger, stronger, and better than he's ever been. St. Pierre himself has said that he's not satisfied with his knockout ratio. Apparently they have to bring in middleweights to train with him because he's steamrolling all the fighters who reside in his weight class. In an era where we're seeing dominant champions in almost every UFC division, Georges St. Pierre stands among those whom few can even visualize losing. The Serra hiccup aside, St. Pierre has been nothing short of untouchable, plowing through elite fighters as if they were tomato cans. How long can his title run last? How long will he even stay at welterweight when he keeps increasing his muscle mass? I imagine we'll find out sooner rather than later – perhaps in the next year or so. Either way, no one can boast an all-around complete game the likes of GSP's. His grasp of MMA's every aspect is nothing short of astounding.

THE CONTENDER

Dan Hardy (23-6): If you saw this one coming, raise your hand. I know I didn't expect Hardy to be fighting for the gold a little more than a year after he was knocking out Rory Markham (which, by the way, is the only of his four UFC fights that he finished.) It's easy to disparage Hardy's title shot, but who is more deserving? St. Pierre's beatdown of Josh Koscheck was epic enough that a title fight for Koscheck still seems unrealistic to me. And above all, Hardy was opportunistic. He stumbled into a number one contender fight when he took over for the injured Martin Kampmann against Mike Swick at UFC 105, and he won. Plain and simple. He's got as good a shot as anyone else against GSP, at least on paper, which is to say on paper he'll take a severe beating.

A STEP OR TWO AWAY

Paul Daley (23-8-2): Daley has exploded onto the scene in the UFC with big knockout wins over Martin Kampmann and Dustin Hazelett. Both were favored against the heavy-handed Brit, and both were unceremoniously dispatched. With these wins, Daley was able to put behind him decisive losses to both Nick Thompson and Jake Shields. Should he beat Josh Koscheck at UFC 113 in May, I don't know how he doesn't get the next shot at the title. I say that because he's the only one on this list who hasn't been destroyed by St. Pierre already. The only way this doesn't happen is if the UFC brass decides that a rematch is warranted with one of the following two men:

Thiago Alves (16-6): Alves was thoroughly drubbed at the hands of the champion at UFC 100, and has yet to make a return appearance due to injury. He was scheduled for a rematch with Jon Fitch at UFC 107, but was forced out of that bout. And what is his reward for being out so long? Well, he'll get that rematch with Jon Fitch. Fitch, by the way, was the last guy to beat Alves before he went on a seven-fight win streak that ultimately landed him at St. Pierre's doorstep. An explosive striker who is increasingly difficult to get to the ground, Alves promises to be a very different fighter than the first time he and Fitch squared off in June of 2006. I'm not saying he'll get another shot if he beats Fitch, but maybe Fitch and then another top contender…

Jon Fitch (21-3): Sporting one of the most gaudy records this side of GSP, Jon Fitch has lost only once in the Octagon, with that loss coming at the capable hands of the champion. He is otherwise 11-1 in the UFC. The epic beatdown that was laid upon him at UFC 87 probably won him more fans than he had before, as he was able to weather five rounds of St. Pierre's best pounding and keep coming forward. Since that fight, Fitch has won three straight, but Alves will be by far the toughest test he's faced since losing his shot at gold in 2008. Should he win, he may just get another shot. But it could also go to his teammate at AKA.

Josh Koscheck (14-4): Koscheck is the third entry on this list to have a decisive loss to St. Pierre, though that loss came in 2007 when GSP was rebounding from his shocking loss to Matt Serra. Had he not held on to his shorts for half a round, he probably would have been submitted during the fight. As it was, there was never any doubt about which way the judges would see the fight after three rounds. Koscheck has been a little more spotty in his post-GSP run through the competition, going 5-2 since that time, but should he knock off Paul Daley at UFC 113, he may just get another shot at the champ, and this time with something more on the line.

UP AND COMERS

John Hathaway (12-0): I had him in this same category before, and I've still got my eye on him. He took out UK card staple Paul Taylor at UFC 105, and I'm intrigued to see what's in store for him with his next opponent.

Rick Story (9-3): Hathaway's UFC 99 opponent bounced back from that loss with a ridiculous arm triangle from inside full guard against fellow up-and-comer Brian Foster at UFC 103. The UFC obviously sees something in him, as they've signed him to an extension following his most recent victory over Jesse Lennox at UFC Fight Night 20. Watch out for this guy. He's got a solid wrestling base, crisp boxing, and brute strength. With some more polish, he could be pretty dangerous. My only concern is that he might be a little undersized, but I've yet to see him in there with a really big welterweight, so it's hard to say for sure. And if you haven't seen his fights with Hathaway or Foster, go find them now and watch them. Great stuff.

Brian Foster (13-4): Like Story, Foster lost his Octagon debut and bounced back with an impressive victory. Foster smashed the 26-4 Brock Larson, finishing the welterweight stalwart for only the second time in his career (the first was a quick submission loss to Carlos Condit in a WEC title bid.) When you're training with Matt Hughes at the HIT Squad, we know you've got wrestling. Foster's got some power on the feet, too.

Rory MacDonald: A highly-touted Canadian prospect, the 20-year-old MacDonald is the youngest fighter on the UFC's current roster. That didn't stop him from weathering a big shot early in the first round against King of the Cage veteran Mike Guymon and coming back with a sweet armbar, leaving little more than 30 seconds on the clock in that first stanza. If you listen to the hype, MacDonald will be the next GSP in a few years. I don't know about all that, but I'm definitely going to be watching this kid. He had his first pro fight when he was 16, and he's ended all of his fights by (T)KO or submission.

Nick Osipczak (5-0): Osipczak is still green, but he proved to be dangerous when he stopped fellow prospect Matt Riddle at UFC 105. Osipczak is a product of TUF 9 and could be yet another British star in the making. I tell you, it's getting tougher every day over there.

Jake Ellenberger (22-5): If Ellenberger hasn't impressed you in his first two UFC fights, there's probably nothing I can say to change your mind. But in his UFC debut, he gave Carlos Condit all he could handle for three rounds before losing a decision, and he followed that up by smoking Mike Pyle at UFC 108. Them's some pretty deep waters for your first two UFC fights. Ellenberger is relentless and can weather a storm without being worse for wear. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on his progress.

THE POOL

I could have kept going in the Up & Coming category, so let's start out in the pool with some more young guns. You've got your T.J. Grant (15-3), another tough Canadian who came with big expectations to the UFC. He earned his first stoppage in the Octagon in December with a TKO of Kevin Burns, who has since been cut. He'll face another challenge when he squares off with Johny Hendricks at UFC 113. Hendricks has been carving out a nice niche for himself, going 2-0 since his promotion from the now-defunct WEC welterweight division. He took out poster boy Amir Sadollah (3-1) in short order and followed that up with a decision win over Ricardo Funch (7-1) last month. I haven't seen his win over Funch yet, but the Sadollah win was impressive. For his part, TUF winner Sadollah has gotten out of the loss column with a dominating win over why-is-he-back-in-the-UFC fighter Phil Baroni (13-12) at UFC 106, and made it two in a row by taking out the streaking Brad Blackburn (15-10), who had won his four previous bouts. Blackburn could find himself on the outs should he lose another one, as his three UFC wins have come against fighters who are no longer with the promotion. Meanwhile, Funch will fight next at UFC 111 (which has no fewer than five welterweight fights including GSP-Hardy) when he takes on TUF veteran and resident goofy-looking guy Matt Riddle (3-1). Riddle is also coming off of his first professional loss, which he suffered to Osipczak at UFC 105.

One guy who got on a roll almost immediately after leaving the TUF house was Matt Brown (11-7). He came into the show with an unspectacular 7-6 record and a penchant for exciting fights, and he's gone 4-1 since. The only fight he hasn't ended within the distance was a hotly contested split decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim (12-0-1, NC) at UFC 88. He's since blown through Ryan Thomas (10-3), Pete Sell (8-5), and TUF winner James Wilks (6-3) in an especially impressive 3rd round TKO that saw him wear the Brit down to the point of exhaustion before finishing him. So Wilks didn't get a win in his first post-TUF outing, but he's hardly the first winner to do that. Meanwhile the aforementioned "Stun Gun" (Kim) has looked good in his fights, but has been out of action since July. After a win against T.J. Grant and a decision loss to resident head case Karo Parisyan (18-5, NC) (which was turned into a no contest by the NSAC,) Kim will likely face a stiffer test in his next fight. Meanwhile Brown gets no respite as he'll face the always-dangerous Ricardo Almeida (11-3) at UFC 111. Brown's submission defense was tested against Wilks, and he'll get a tougher test against the "Big Dog," who has a propensity for controlling the ground game for three rounds on the way to a decision. This will be Almeida's first fight at welterweight after spending most of his career at 185.

Another former middleweight fighter soon to make his welterweight debut is Rob Kimmons (22-5), who is 3-2 in his last five fights and will look for greener pastures at 170. He won't get a cakewalk in his first appearance on Versus when he fights Mike Pierce (10-3), who has a strong wrestling base and used it to win a decision over Brock Larson and hang with Jon Fitch for three rounds. Speaking of the Versus card, there's another intriguing welterweight scrap on that event that will include John Howard (13-4), who will look to stay perfect in the UFC when he meets slugger Anthony Johnson (8-3). Howard has used a good top game and sound wrestling to eke out split decisions in his first two fights, and he came back from what was certain to be a decision loss when he pounded out Dennis Hallman (41-13-2) with just five seconds remaining in their fight. Johnson is 5-3 in the UFC, but his last two losses have come on the heels of eye pokes. The first Kevin Burns fight (which Johnson quickly avenged) ended with an eye poke that put him on his back, and the verdict of TKO was criminally upheld. The loss to Josh Koscheck in November was more competitive, but Johnson was still finished after receiving a poke to the eye (this, of course, happening after Koscheck faked having been poked himself. He was kneed illegally, but there was never any eye poke, or at least not with Johnson's finger.) The loss may well have happened without the phantom eye poke, mind you. I'm just sayin.

Middleweights aren't the only ones looking for fresh starts at 170 pounds. Two more winners from "The Ultimate Fighter" are on their way to welterweight, and for one of them it's a return to the old stomping grounds. Diego Sanchez (21-3) will make his way back up in weight after going 2-1 at 155, his lone loss coming at the hands (and foot) of BJ Penn. Time will tell what the future holds for Sanchez, whose only losses in the division were back-to-back decisions to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. The other lightweight on his way up is Nate Diaz (11-5), who is looking for a new start after going 2-3 in his last five. He'll face Rory Markham (16-5) at UFC 111. Markham will be seeing his first action in over a year by that point, his last fight ending with a knockout loss to Dan Hardy in February of last year.

UFC 111 will play host to another welterweight fight that looks to be a statement fight for one of the combatants. Ben Saunders (8-1-2), fresh off of being the first man to knock out Marcus Davis (16-6) (Melvin Guillard beat him by cut TKO, but that's different if you ask me,) will clash with Danish fighter Martin Kampmann (16-3), who will look to get back into a position where people are mentioning his name and "title shot" in the same sentence. Okay, you ready for this? Because it's about to get crazy. You see, Kampmann was supposed to fight Mike Swick (14-3) at UFC 103 in a number one contender's bout. Swick had to pull out, so here comes Paul Daley, making his UFC debut on the main card instead of the prelims against Brian Foster. Kampmann still could have earned a title shot with an impressive win over Daley, but we know how that turned out. So Swick got a reprieve and got into another contender fight with Dan Hardy, and we know how that one turned out too. Now we've got Kampmann taking on Saunders, who was beaten by Swick at UFC 99 in order to earn the shot at a title shot. Swick, meanwhile, will face….Paulo Thiago (12-1) at UFC 109. Apparently Thiago is being punished for beating Josh Koscheck in that he now has to face all of Koscheck's AKA welterweight teammates (he lost to Jon Fitch already.) That whole scenario would have tied up in a nice little bow if Swick were facing, say, Carlos Condit (24-5), who has a loss to Martin Kampmann, but everything can't be perfect. The former WEC Welterweight Champion Condit last fought in September against the aforementioned Jake Ellenberger in a unanimous decision win.

Oh, and remember Marcus Davis all the way back there? Because he's got a fight coming up too. He'll be knocking ou…er…fighting Jonathan Goulet (22-10) at UFC 113 in Montreal. Don't blink for that one, folks. It'll be over quickly. Speaking of being over, we're coming into the home stretch here, so bear with me.

Let's take a look at the old man division of the Welterweights for a minute. At UFC 109, we've got former champion and owner of one of the biggest upset wins ever, Matt Serra (9-6), taking on two-time welterweight title challenger Frank Trigg (19-7). I don't know how the fight will be by any means, but the buildup so far has been tremendous. These guys can both talk some trash, and I'm expecting it to heat up for the next two weeks leading into the event. And while we're talking about Serra, his own BJJ trainer, Renzo Gracie (13-6-1) will be making his UFC debut at the young age of 43 when he fights the legendary Matt Hughes (43-7) in Abu Dhabi at UFC 112. Why, you ask? Well, why not? Neither of them are going to win the title, so why not fight each other? Either way, it'll be more competitive than when Hughes destroyed Gracie's cousin and UFC pioneer Royce Gracie at UFC 60. One more veteran who still has some gas in the tank is Chris Lytle (27-17-5), who will fight Brian Foster in the lone welterweight fight at UFC 110.

That's about it for UFC welterweights with fights scheduled. Now let's run through the guys who don't have anything scheduled at the moment, followed by welterweights of note that are currently residing in other promotions:

DaMarques Johnson (10-7) is coming off what is likely the most impressive win of his career, having caught Edgar Garcia (now cut from the UFC) in a triangle after a wicked upkick. Former King of the Cage champion Mike Guymon (11-3-1) was on the receiving end of Rory MacDonald's UFC debut, which was unfortunate for him. He'll get another shot probably sooner rather than later, but there are certainly no easy fights in this weight class in the UFC. Having rehabbed injuries for over a year, Dustin Hazelett (12-5) received a rude welcome back to the Octagon when he was starched by Paul Daley in brutal fashion at UFC 108. Hazelett is one of the promotion's more promising young fighters, but he'll need to recover well after that loss. WEC import Jesse Lennox (11-2) was also disappointed in his last outing, losing to Rick Story by unanimous decision. Mike Pyle (18-7-1) is a guy you should never sleep on, but he'll need to pick up a win in his next fight if he wants to gain a foothold in the UFC. His last fight was a thrashing by Brian Foster. Finally, Paul Taylor (10-5-1) isn't in danger of going anywhere as far as I can tell, even though he's 2-3 In his last five fights. He's always good for a fight on a UK card, and the guy always puts on a good show. He's like Marcus Davis in that way, which makes it no surprise that they won "Fight of the Night" when they put on one of the more entertaining one-round fights I can remember all the way back at UFC 75.

That about does it for the UFC guys. Now, this is one of those classes that is not very deep outside of the Octagon, but there are definitely a couple of guys worth noting down here. The most notable, as always, is Jake Shields (24-4-1), who is taking a sabbatical from 170 and moving up to middleweight because of the dearth of competition for him. It's actually kind of too bad he won the Strikeforce Middleweight Title from Robbie Lawler, because there are a couple of intriguing names for him now. Marius Zaromskis (13-3), one of the breakout fighters of 2009, made a personal head kick highlight reel last year, and it'd be interesting to see what he could do against the grappler Shields, who is great on the ground, but notoriously lost on his feet. A very good alternative to that fight, though, we'll actually see next week when Zaromskis fights Nick Diaz (20-7) (who happens to be Shields's teammate) for the Welterweight Title that Shields vacated. Got all that? The other three Strikeforce/Dream guys to remember are Hayato Sakurai (35-10-2), who is past his prime but I don't care, Andre Galvao (3-1), who is an intriguing prospect with great grappling, and Jay Hieron (18-4), who takes on Joe Riggs on the same card as Diaz-Zaromskis. That leaves us with Bellator, who will begin their second season of tournaments in April. If you caught the first season on ESPN Deportes last year, you know Bellator is in the business of finding undiscovered or underappreciated talent. Among those talented fighters are current champion Lyman Good (10-0) and Omar de la Cruz (5-2), whom Good defeated by TKO to win the title. I fully expect to have a couple of fine prospects show up in Bellator this year, but I'm not sure who they are yet.

Alright, folks. We are getting close to the 4,000 word territory at this point, which means it's time for me to let you get back to work. I'm hoping to knock out each of the divisions here before we get into the Spring of Title Fights, so I'll be back sooner rather than later. In the meantime, if you think I missed anyone, or if you've got anything else to say, let me know in the comments. Or if you like, shoot me an email at ennistorch(at)gmail(dot)com. Or hey, I just got on to Twitter, where I'll surely be talking about MMA and other general awesomeness. You can check me out there - @shawnennis.

History of the UFC Welterweight Title

*Bold indicates title changing hands

10/16/98 – P. Miletich def. M. Burnett (Decision)
1/8/99 – P. Miletich def. J. Patino (Decision)
7/16/99 – P. Miletich def. A. Pederneiras (TKO)
6/9/00 – P. Miletich def. J. Alessio (Submission)
12/16/00 – P. Miletich def. K. Yamamoto (Submission)
5/4/01 – C. Newton def. P. Miletich (Submission)
11/2/01 – M. Hughes def. C. Newton (KO)
3/22/02 – M. Hughes def. H. Sakurai (TKO)
7/13/02 – M. Hughes def. C. Newton (TKO)
11/22/02 – M. Hughes def. G. Castillo (TKO)
4/25/03 – M. Hughes def. S. Sherk (Decision)
11/21/03 – M. Hughes def. F. Trigg (Submission)
1/31/04 – B. Penn def. M. Hughes (Submission)
*BJ Penn leaves UFC (contract dispute stemming from Penn signing with K-1)*
10/22/04 – M. Hughes def. G. St. Pierre (Submission)
4/16/05 – M. Hughes def. F. Trigg (Submission)
9/23/06 – M. Hughes def. B. Penn (TKO)
11/18/06 – G. St. Pierre def. M. Hughes (TKO)
4/7/07 – M. Serra def. G. St. Pierre (TKO)
12/29/07 – G. St. Pierre def. M. Hughes (Submission) – Interim Title due to Serra injury
4/19/08 – G. St. Pierre def. M. Serra (TKO)
8/9/08 – G. St. Pierre def. J. Fitch (Decision)
1/31/09 – G. St. Pierre def. B. Penn (TKO)
7/11/09 – G. St. Pierre def. T. Alves (Decision)

Longest Title Reign: Pat Miletich (931 Days)
Most Consecutive Defenses: Matt Hughes (5)
Current Reign: Georges St. Pierre (644 Days, 3 Defenses)

Definitions/Parameters:

The Champ: Self-explanatory

The Contenders: Fighters who could fight for the title immediately and be taken as legitimate contenders. Fighters coming off of a loss will not typically be in this category.

A Step or Two Away: Fighters who could be in contention for a title with another victory or two over legitimate competition.

Up and Comers: Fighters who have no more than three fights in the UFC, who have shown promise. They're not always undefeated, but they have potential.

On the Rebound: Coming off of a high-profile loss or a loss in a fight that they should have won, and it will take a while to get the momentum back. Typically a champion who just lost his belt, as there's really nowhere else to put them.

The Pool: Other fighters of note within the division, who could work their way into the top three categories by going on a run and/or proving themselves/proving themselves again in the Octagon. Also those outside the UFC who could make an impact.

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Shawn Ennis is the senior columnist for MMATorch, one of the charter contributors to the site. His "Lay of the Land" columns have been a regular feature of MMATorch for years.