Ennis' Take
ENNIS: Lay of the Land - Breakdown of the UFC's Flyweight Division (October 2012 - Part Two)
Oct 17, 2012 - 10:35:53 PM ENNIS: Lay of the Land - Breakdown of the UFC's Flyweight Division (October 2012 - Part Two)

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By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

This is the second of a two-part series breaking down the UFC's flyweight division. For Part One, click here.

Tier 5

These fights are the bottom of the heap – not necessarily saying that these are the worst fighters in the division, but these are the guys whose jobs are either on the line now, or could be shortly

Here's the thing: Tier five isn't even relevant in the flyweight division yet. Sure, there are guys toward the bottom, but no one's even had more than three fights yet. So for now, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the UFC isn't cutting any flyweight after his next fight. So we're going to skip the lowest tier for now.

Tier 4

These fights will have debuting or newer fighters, along with those who are declining or seem stuck in a rut but aren't necessarily in danger of being cut.

Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-5-6) vs. John Lineker (19-6) – UFC on Fuel 6 – November 10, 2012
Urushitani is highly ranked in several circles, but that won't last long if he has another performance like the one he turned in against Joseph Benavidez. Granted, Benavidez is probably going to make a lot of flyweights look bad, but that wasn't exactly a great showing in Urushitani's debut. He's going to have some convincing to do come November. Lineker, on the other hand, looked great early on against Louis Gaudinot until he was caught by a guillotine choke in the second round. He peppered Gaudinot with hard shots, especially to the body. Lineker had a 13-fight winning streak going into his UFC debut, and he is the reigning Jungle Fight Flyweight Champion. It should be a telling fight between a guy who is highly regarded despite a poor performance and a guy who hasn't found much acclaim despite a gaudy win streak and a good showing in defeat. I think Lineker is probably a little too much for Urushitani, though I am admittedly spitballing here. I haven't seen a ton from either guy, but Lineker seems to have more going for him from what I have seen, and I'm going to take him by TKO.

Tiers 1-3

Due to the lack of information about events scheduled after December of this year (is it just me, or does it seem like we usually have more information by now about fights that are further out?) there is only one flyweight fight currently on the UFC's schedule. While there may not be a ton more fighters to go through (there are only 14 on the UFC's roster,) let's run through them anyway and take a look at some possible fights. Keep in mind below that we're not working with a ton of information when it comes to the tiers. If you think I'm way off on my groupings, let me know what you think.

As a reminder, since there were no fights to speak of:

Tier 3: This is your "middle of the pack" tier. The fighters in this category are probably fringe top 25 guys and below who are usually fighting to get into "the mix," as it were. From time to time you'll see a tier 3 fighter matched with a tier 5 fighter, or someone who's on the verge of being sent packing. Those fights will usually end up here, though there's no hard and fast rule about that.

Tier 2: This category contains fights with at least one top 20 fighter, and usually both will be in the top 20-25.

Tier 1: These fights have at least one top 10 fighter, and this is also where the #1 contender fights go.

Matchmaking the Rest

Now let's group the unmatched fighters into tiers and then match them up according to their tier and whether they won or lost their last fights. Guys who are ascending may fight someone in a higher tier, or vice versa.

Tier 5: None
Tier 4: Phil Harris, Tim Elliott
Tier 3: Darren Uyenoyama, Ulysses Gomez
Tier 2: Chris Cariaso, John Moraga, Louis Gaudinot
Tier 1: Joseph Benavidez, Ian McCall, Jussier da Silva, John Dodson, Demetrious Johnson

Alright, let's start off with the easy one: we know that Demetrious Johnson will defend his title for the first time against TUF winner John Dodson. We just don't know when. That's a really interesting fight, as Johnson holds the obvious advantage when it comes to being evasive and having excellent footwork. But if Dodson gets a hold of his opponent, there's a good chance of a stoppage happening. So can Johnson stay away from Dodson for five rounds, or will Dodson catch him eventually? I think at least right now I'd give the edge to Johnson. We saw what he was able to do with Joseph Benavidez, who also has knockout power. I don't know that a fight with Dodson will be all that different.

Phil Harris and Tim Elliott both were on winning streaks coming into the UFC (five and eight, respectively.) Both streaks were ended upon their debuts. Harris looked completely out of his depth against Darren Uyenoyama, while Elliott hung tough with John Dodson for three rounds. I like a fight between these two, who didn't necessarily have the biggest resumes coming into the UFC. Harris may be in over his head, and I'd go with Elliott in this fight, but these things don't happen on paper, so let's have these two figure out who belongs. As for Uyenoyama, I like a fight with Chris Cariaso. Cariaso is mostly a forgotten commodity (or maybe that's just me,) but he's 4-1 in his last five, with the only loss being a split decision defeat to the surging Michael McDonald. Also included is a win over Will Campuzano, who is making a new name for himself at flyweight. Cariaso only has one fight at 125 pounds, and that was against Josh Ferguson, who is no longer with the UFC. A fight with Uyenoyama could give us a better idea of where he fits in. On first glance, I'd favor Cariaso by decision.

We've also got the issue of who's going to get the next title shot after John Dodson. One would imagine that the flyweight roster will be at least a little deeper by that time, but right now we've got to work with what's on the page. And at the moment, the most compelling fight I can think of to determine that privilege is John Moraga taking on Louis Gaudinot. That may seem a little quick for both fighters, but when you consider that the champion has already beaten Joseph Benavidez and Ian McCall, Dodson beat da Silva, and Benavidez took out Urushitani with prejudice, there's no real obvious next contender. Not to mention, Moraga and Gaudinot were both involved in some seriously fun fights their last times out. So I think that's a pretty good contender fight. That could probably happen on the same card as the title fight, or at least on a card close to it on the calendar. (Seriously though, don't you get the feeling that there's just going to be an explosion of event and fight announcements at some point? There has to be, right?)

Speaking of Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez, neither of them is contending for a title shot right away if the division gets a little deeper, but even if that were an option, I like a fight between the two of them. That would be a pretty dynamic fight. Though I'd favor Benavidez going in, "Uncle Creepy" is never to be taken lightly. When he first dropped to flyweight, he just started picking off the top ranked fighters. I wouldn't put it past him to pull off the upset against Benavidez either.

By process of elimination, that leaves us with Ulysses Gomez and Jussier da Silva. I think da Silva wins that fight rather handily. We didn't see a lot of what "Formiga" can do against Dodson, but he is one of the more talented and explosive grapplers in the flyweight division. Gomez is no slouch on the floor, but I think da Silva takes that one either by tapout or decision.

So with the matchmaking completed, to whom might the UFC look to bring in flyweight talent? Well, I don't claim to be the most well-versed flyweight scout in the world, but I know a few guys that they could target if and when they are available.

Shinichi Kojima has been around forever, and though he isn't what he once was, the Shooto vet would be a nice addition to the UFC's roster. Will Campuzano has won two straight since being cut from the UFC's bantamweight division, and he will challenge for the vacant LFC Flyweight Title in December when he fights Jimmy Flick. Those are two to keep an eye on. Josh Sampo was on the receiving end of a Campuzano knockout, but is still a talent to watch. A couple of no-brainers to check out if possible are Darrell Montague and Mamoru Yamaguchi, who will fight in December in Japan. Yamaguchi is 17-4-3 since 2003, with his losses coming to Urushitani, da Silva, and Kojima. Not a bad list. Montague's only losses have come at the hands of Ian McCall and Robbie Peralta, who looks like he could be a killer at featherweight.

Some other potential notables: Rambaa Somdet, Sean Santella, Giorgio Andrews, Haruo Ochi, Johnathan Mackles, Kiyotaka Shimizu, and Mitsuhisa Sunabe. Of course, all this having been said, the next big thing at flyweight is probably a guy that no one's even thinking about. That's an exciting thing about the new division.

For easy reference and to gauge the reliability of my soothsaying, here's a quick list of all proposed matchups:

Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) vs. John Dodson (14-5)
Phil Harris (21-10-1) vs. Tim Elliott (8-3-1)
Darren Uyenoyama (8-3) vs. Chris Cariaso (14-3)
John Moraga (12-1) vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-2)
Ian McCall (11-3-1) vs. Joseph Benavidez (16-3)
Ulysses Gomez (9-3) vs. Jussier da Silva (14-2)

So that's about it. Did I miss anyone? Let me know what you think in the comments, shoot me an email at ennistorch(at)gmail(dot)com, or hit me up on Twitter - @shawnennis.

History of the UFC Flyweight Championship
*Bold indicates title changing hands
9/22/12 – D. Johnson def. J. Benavidez (Decision)
Longest Title Reign: Demetrious Johnson (26 days)
Most Title Defenses: n/a
Current Title Reign: Demetrious Johnson (26 days, 0 defenses)