Ennis' Take
ENNIS: Lay of the Land - Comprehensive Breakdown of UFC's Lightweight Division (August 2012, Part Two)
Aug 30, 2012 - 10:30:04 PM ENNIS: Lay of the Land - Comprehensive Breakdown of UFC's Lightweight Division (August 2012, Part Two)

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By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist

This is the second of a two-part series breaking down the UFC's lightweight division. For Part One, click here.

Continuing the theme from the last "Lay of the Land," this section will break down the scheduled UFC lightweight fights into tiers. Each tier means something different as far as relevance, which will be explained below. For each tier we'll break down the fights and give a quick prediction. After all the fights are broken down, I'll break the rest of the fighters into groups and match them up in fights I'd like to see. Note: If I mentioned them in Part 1, I won't mention them again unless they're fighting someone in the pool. Here we go.

Tier 5
These fights are the bottom of the heap - that's not necessarily saying that these are the worst fighters in the division, but these are the guys whose jobs are either on the line now, or could be shortly

Marcus Levesseur (21-6) vs. Carlo Prater (30-11-1) - UFC on FX 5 – October 5

Both of these fighters are only coming off of one loss, but there are extenuating circumstances. Prater was brought into the UFC 10 years into a well-traveled career. But the veteran was given a gift DQ win over Erick Silva in his debut (though admittedly he was fighting out of his weight class,) and in his lightweight debut for the company he was given a one-sided decision loss to T.J. Grant. I'm pretty high on Grant, so it's hard for me to count that too much against him. On the other hand, you have Levesseur. He was brought in to fight Cody McKenzie in his debut, where he lost by guillotine choke. If you lose by guillotine to Cody McKenzie, you probably don't belong in the UFC. And if Prater loses to Levesseur, it doesn't do wonders for his chances to stay with the promotion. I've got Prater winning this one by submission and sending Levesseur back to the local circuits.

Yves Edwards (41-18-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (20-8) – UFC on FX 5 – October 5

I hate having either one of these guys in danger of leaving the UFC, as both put on fun fights. But Stephens is coming off of back-to-back unimpressive losses (albeit against Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis). Edwards is in a little better position, having only lost his last fight, but he's 2-2 over his last four, and the wins were over Cody McKenzie and Rafaello Oliveira, who are not exactly the cream of the crop (though both are still with the UFC for now.) I think Stephens probably wins this one, and it'll be a lot of fun to watch. I don't know if Edwards would be let go right away, and I'd hate to see a guy like that go, but being 1-3 in his last four isn't going to do him any favors.

Mac Danzig (21-9-1) vs. Takanori Gomi (33-8) – UFC on Fuel 6 – November 19

Seeing Takanori Gomi anymore just makes me sad. The only way he's gotten a win in the last three years is by beating up blown up featherweights. And Danzig hasn't had a relevant win since 2008 when he won the aforementioned fight against Mark Bocek. Even with both fighters coming off of wins, you could hardly be surprised if the loser is cut. As for a pick, I hardly even know how to make one, but I'm going with Gomi for old times' sake.

Tier 4

These fights will have debuting or newer fighters, along with those who are declining or seem stuck in a rut but aren't necessarily in danger of being cut.

Jacob Volkmann (14-3) vs. Shane Roller (11-6) – UFC on FX 5 – October 5

The ramifications of this fight are a little tough to anticipate. It could very easily be in Tier 3, 4 or 5 depending on what the UFC thinks of Volkmann. "Christmas" entered the UFC as a welterweight and went 0-2 in short order against Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann. He then dropped to lightweight and won five straight before becoming the latest victim of the "Sassangle" employed by Paul Sass. So. Do those who make the decisions regard Volkmann as a guy who won five straight before losing to Sass, or do they see him as the guy who won five straight un-electrifying decisions over guys who are mostly out of the UFC (Danny Castillo being the lone exception?) That will be what decides Volkmann's fate should he lose to Roller. Shane Roller, should he lose, will be in the unenviable position of having gone 1-4 in his last five fights. It could be tough to justify keeping him on the roster with that kind of recent history. I think Volkmann probably picks up a close decision win here.

Reza Madadi (12-2) vs. Cristiano Marcelo (12-4) – UFC 153 – October 13

I like Madadi as a prospect but I do have my doubts about him. The fight with Marcelo should be a revelation. Marcelo's striking game, unless something changes drastically from the last time we saw him against Sam Sicilia, is non-existent. Madadi was being handled on the feet against Yoislandy Izquierdo before catching him in a guillotine. The smart gameplan if you've got even decent striking is to keep the fight standing against Marcelo. Whether Madadi does that, or whether he's able to win the standup, will give a better (if still incomplete) idea of whether he'll have some staying power in the UFC. I tend to think that Madadi will win the standup battle but not look as impressive as you would expect a real prospect to look en route to a decision win. Marcelo will likely be cut at that point, while Madadi is given a stiffer test.

Tim Means (18-3) vs. Abel Trujillo (9-4) – UFC on Fox 5 – December 8

On the surface, this one seems pretty simple. From what I've seen out of Trujillo, in order to win this fight he's going to have to take it to the ground. From what I've seen of Means, that won't be an easy task. I'm definitely high on Means as a prospect and I think he makes this one look pretty easy, either cruising to a decision or scoring a TKO. Not a foregone conclusion by any means, but that's the most likely scenario in my book.

Daron Cruickshank (11-2) vs. Henry Martinez (9-2) – UFC on Fox 5 – December 8

This one is a little tough to call. Martinez debuted in the UFC a weight class above his own when he fought Matt Riddle at UFC 143. He had a good showing for a guy who was massively undersized but ended up on the wrong end of a decision. After that, I was expecting big things from him against Bernardo Magalhaes. Martinez did pull out the win, but it wasn't exactly a coming out party. That could be due at least in part to the fact that Magalhaes seems to be the kind of guy against whom it's not easy to look good against, but Tim Means managed to do just that in his debut. Cruickshank, on the other hand, showed a more striking-oriented game during his time on the TUF Live season, but abandoned that in a business-like decision over Chris Tickle at the finale. So in essence, I'm not sure what to expect from either guy. I think Martinez probably has a little more upside than Cruickshank, though that's not a sure thing, so I'll give him the edge to win a decision in December.

Ramsey Nijem (6-2) vs. Joe Proctor (8-1) – UFC on Fox 5 – December 8

In a battle of TUF standouts, TUF 13 runner-up Nijem takes on TUF Live contestant Proctor. Nijem, while obviously not facing top-tier competition since his loss to Tony Ferguson, has looked pretty good in his two bouts since the finale. Proctor looked pretty game as well in his two fights on the show, and his finish of Jeremy Larsen at the TUF Live Finale was quite impressive. This is one of your typical TUF vs. TUF fights that won't bean a whole lot in the long run, but the result could be more telling in retrospect than it will as it happens, if that makes sense. This is a tough one to call, and I think I'm going to go with Proctor here if only because I think his game is more complete. I will stipulate, though, that I could be completely wrong.

Tier 3

This is your "middle of the pack" tier. The fighters in this category are probably fringe top 25 guys and below who are usually fighting to get into "the mix," as it were. From time to time you'll see a tier 3 fighter matched with a tier 5 fighter, or someone who's on the verge of being sent packing. Those fights will usually end up here, though there's no hard and fast rule about that.

Michael Johnson (11-6) vs. Danny Castillo (14-4) – UFC on FX 5 – October 5

I was not high on Michael Johnson at all coming out of his season on The Ultimate Fighter. After his loss to Paul Sass at UFC on Versus 6, I figured that would be the beginning of the end of Johnson's UFC run. But then something happened when he fought Shane Roller at the UFC's second Fox show this past January. Michael Johnson looked terrific. That continued when he faced TUF winner Tony Ferguson at the third Fox show. Johnson has been training in Florida with the Blackzilians camp, and that seems to have made all the difference. Castillo, besides having one of the few great nicknames in MMA, has gone 6-1 in his last seven fights. Most recently he took out John Cholish, who I thought had a decent chance to win the fight before it happened. And despite being wrong about that one, I'm going against Castillo again here. I think Johnson will continue his hot streak. I don't know how long it will last, but I've seen enough of him to convince me that he'll get past "Last Call," probably via decision.

Thiago Tavares (17-4-1) vs. Dennis Hallman (51-14-2) – UFC on FX 5 – October 5

It had been a while since Dennis Hallman fought at lightweight, but after losing to Brian Ebersole at UFC 133, the veteran of almost 70 professional fights decided to return to 155 pounds. He made an impressive debut, taking out the 9-0 (at the time) John Makdessi in quick and definitive fashion at UFC 140. Tavares has been winning fights, but his four wins since 2009 have come against the murderer's row of Manny Gamburyan, Pat Audinwood, Spencer Fisher, and Sam Stout. Stout is a tough guy but not exactly a world-beater. If Tavares doesn't get injured before this fight happens (which is a real possibility,) I think Hallman wins big. Don't look now, but I've got Hallman making a run. Not a title run, mind you, but a run toward the top 15 or so. You heard it here first.

Tier 2

This category contains fights with at least one top 20 fighter, and usually both will be in the top 20-25.

Evan Dunham (13-2) vs. T.J. Grant (18-5) – UFC 152 – September 22

Tell me if this one sounds familiar: After debuting at welterweight and going 3-3, TJ Grant dropped to lightweight in October of last year and promptly looked very good in his first two wins, going 2-0. Though his lightweight debut against Shane Roller was stopped prematurely by Fernando Yamasaki (otherwise known as "being Wario'd,") Grant should have been ahead on the cards and would likely have picked up the win either way. He followed that up by putting on a clinic against Carlo Prater on the UFC's third Fuel card. Evan Dunham is a bit of a different story. The Xtreme Couture lightweight started off going 4-0 in the division before losing a robbery of a decision to Sean Sherk at UFC 119, then being plastered by Melvin Guillard, which at least temporarily derailed his hopes of being a title contender. He has since rebounded with wins over Shamar Bailey and Nik Lentz, but Grant will be tougher than those two. I think both of these guys have a chance at being highly-ranked fighters, but I'm seeing Dunham getting the job done this time. As it happens, I wouldn't rule out Grant actually having a brighter future at lightweight than Dunham, but right now I'm feeling good about the latter's chances at UFC 152. This one more than likely goes to decision, but it should be a fun grappling-centric match.

Gilbert Melendez (21-2) vs. Pat Healy (28-16) – Strikeforce Melendez vs. Healy – September 29

I don't have much to say about this one. The only reason it's tier 2 and not tier one is that you've got a top 5 lightweight fighting a guy who's unranked. Melendez rolls here. Also, it's a joke that he's not in the UFC. Please kill Strikeforce.

Paul Sass (13-0) vs. Matt Wiman (14-6) – UFC on Fuel 5 – September 29

Let's not mince words here: I'm going with Sass. Let's look at some numbers: 13 – number of wins; 12 – number of submissions; 9 – number of triangle chokes; 3 – number of heel hooks; 2 – number of times outside the first round. These numbers wouldn't be completely insane if they all came outside the UFC (Cody McKenzie, anyone?) But when you consider that Sass is 3-0 in the UFC with three first round finishes? That's incredible. Everyone knows he's got triangles and heel hooks, and so far no one has been able to stop them. Will Matt Wiman suffer his first submission loss when they meet in Nottingham? I say yes. I think Wiman is often unfairly overlooked, but I also think that Sass is the real deal.

Josh Thomson (19-5) vs. Caros Fodor (7-2) – Strikeforce Melendez vs. Healy – September 29

Again, Josh Thomson is a top-20 lightweight. If he's got a contract with Zuffa, he should be in the UFC. Thomson wins in the second. Please kill Strikeforce.

Eddie Alvarez (23-3) vs. Patricky Freire – Bellator 76 – October 12

Alright, usually I don't count non-Zuffa fights because this is a breakdown of the UFC lightweight division after all. But I think it's worth paying attention to this fight. This will be the last fight on Alvarez's contract with Bellator. If he wins, there's probably a better chance that he'll show up in the UFC than if he loses. And of course, there's also the fact that I've been driving the Eddie Alvarez bandwagon since he was fighting as a welterweight in Bodog back in 2007. His fights with Tatsuya Kawijiri and Joachim Hansen in the 2008 Dream Grand Prix were epic. His first seven fights in Bellator (six stoppages) were dominant. His fight with Chandler, even in a losing effort, was a classic. I think he gets by Freire in October (though "Pitbull" is a nice fighter in his own right) and I hope that means he'll end up in the UFC in early 2013. There are a lot of great fights waiting for him there.

Mark Bocek (11-4) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (17-6) – UFC 154 – November 17

I'm torn here. Bocek is a good fighter, and possibly somewhat underrated. I've got him somewhere between top 15 and top 20. The problem is that he's either faced elite competition and lost, or he's beaten guys whose UFC tenures don't last. The only current UFC fighter Bocek has beaten in his seven wins is Nik Lentz, and he's at featherweight. Bocek's losses? Frankie Edgar, Ben Henderson, Jim Miller, and Mac Danzig. Danzig is a bit of an outlier, but it happened in 2008. Dos Anjos is 6-4 in the UFC. His wins are against better names, but his losses are against smaller ones. I'm not trying to play MMA Math here of course, but it's worth mentioning. And now that I've said I'm not necessarily picking the guy with the more impressive record, I think dos Anjos takes this one. Bocek's grappling is very good, but dos Anjos is no slouch on the mat either, and his striking is better than Bocek's. I think dos Anjos will be able to stay out of trouble on the floor and win the fight on the feet en route to a late stoppage or decision.

Tier 1
These fights have at least one top 10 fighter, and this is also where the #1 contender fights go.

Joe Lauzon (22-7) vs. Gray Maynard (11-1-1) – UFC 155 – December 29

Gray Maynard can't catch a break. He draws Frankie Edgar in his first title shot, then loses his second via TKO, then even when he wins against Clay Guida, the fight was terrible. Though you could count it as a win for him as he picked up some fans during that fight for goading Guida and trying to push the pace. Either way, he won't have that problem against Lauzon. And as for Lauzon himself, every time he's had a chance to make the leap into contendership, it hasn't gone well. His momentum has stalled out three times. Once against Kenny Florian, once against a streaking George Sotiropoulos, and most recently in a spectacular knockout loss to Anthony Pettis, who will presumably fight Donald Cerrone for a title shot sometime in the near future. I'd love to pick Lauzon to win this fight, but I just can't do it. And while I'd love to say it'll be a lot of fun to watch, I'm not so sure about that either. Maynard's best shot is to take Lauzon down and control him. Lauzon has good submissions, and that's probably his best shot at winning, but I think Maynard's wrestling wins the day here.

For the rest of the fighters, I'm going to follow a similar pattern. They'll be grouped into tiers and then matched up according to their tier and whether they won or lost their last fights. Guys who are ascending may fight someone in a higher tier, or vice versa. This is the first time I've attempted to be quite this meticulous with this part of the division, so let's see how it goes.

Tier 5: Aaron Riley, John Makdessi, Jeremy Larsen, John Cofer, Mitch Clarke, Rafaello Oliveira, Spencer Fisher, TJ O'Brien
Tier 4: Al Iaquinta, Anthony Njokuani, Anton Kuivanen, CJ Keith, Fabricio Camoes, James Vick, John Cholish, Justin Salas, Michael Chiesa, Myles Jury, Paul Taylor, Sam Stout, Terry Etim
Tier 3: Edson Barboza, George Sotiropoulos, Jamie Varner, Sean Sherk, Tony Ferguson
Tier 2: Diego Sanchez, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Melvin Guillard
Tier 1: Clay Guida, Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Jim Miller

TJ O'Brien is a strange case, because he's on the UFC's roster, but his last two fights have come outside the UFC and he doesn't have anything scheduled at the moment. But if we look at the other fighters on the fifth and fourth tier, here's what I'm seeing:
I want to see whether John Makdessi can bounce back. So I'm going to give him Mitch Clarke in your traditional "loser leaves town" fight. CJ Keith didn't look so good in his debut against Ramsey Nijem, so I'm going to see how he does against another TUF guy in Jeremy Larsen. This is probably another one in which the loser doesn't stick. James Vick was on the TUF Live season but has yet to make his official debut. I'd stick him in there with Anton Kuivanen and see what happens. Even though Al Iaquinta is coming off of a loss and Rafaello Oliveira won his last fight, I like that matchup. I'm not a believer in Oliveira, so I'd be interested to see how Iaquinta would handle him.

Aaron Riley is an interesting case. Though I've got him in a tenuous position as far as his UFC career is concerned, he's still a tough out for anyone and he's been around forever. I'd probably match him up with someone like George Sotiropoulos. Even though I've got the Aussie two tiers ahead of Riley, he'll be coming back from a long layoff, and Riley is a vet. To finish off the fifth tier, let's match up John Cofer, who was knocked out by Justin Lawrence at the TUF Finale, with Justin Salas, who was pretty highly regarded coming into the UFC. He was hurt early by Tim Means and never got into the fight, so Cofer would be a good gauge for him. Note: I'm leaving off Spencer Fisher because I'm not sure if he's actually retired, and I'm leaving off O'Brien because I don't know what his actual deal is.

The rest of the fighters in the fourth tier match up pretty naturally, I think. Hopefully Paul Taylor is healthy in this fantasy matchmaking world, because I love a fight between him and Myles Jury. I'm high on Jury, and that would just be a fun fight. And even though Micheal Chiesa won the TUF Live season, I'm not as high on him. Let's see how he does with Sam Stout. That leaves two victims of Edson Barboza in Terry Etim (who could forget that one?) and Anthony Njokuani. I like that fight quite a bit as well. And to finish up the fourth tier, let's match Fabricio Camoes with, well, who else? Edson Barboza. That puts Camoes in with two straight fearsome strikers as he just lost his last fight to Melvin Guillard, but that's just life in the UFC.

Speaking of Guillard, we're going to leave him off for now. We've got nine fighters left (not including Sherk, who is on the roster but has been MIA since his gift win over Evan Dunham in September 2010,) which means one is going to be left out. And since Guillard just got pasted by Donald Cerrone, he gets a break.

So the rest of the division shakes out like this: Diego Sanchez makes his return to lightweight in a fight that is going to be fantastic when he takes on Jamie Varner. Tony Ferguson fights Khabib Nurmagomedov. Ferguson is coming off of a loss, and Nurmagomedov just beat Gleison Tibau, but we're going to let that slide here, especially since the decision in Khabib's favor wasn't without controversy. We already know that Donald Cerrone is fighting Anthony Pettis to see who will potentially get the next title shot, so that one goes without saying. And finally, doesn't it seem like Clay Guida and Jim Miller have fought before? Well they haven't, and now is a time that makes perfect sense for that fight. I'd like to see the loser of that one fight a debuting Eddie Alvarez next year.

A couple of guys who weren't mentioned but bear mentioning: Michael Chandler, who will defend the Bellator Lightweight Title against Rick Hawn, who has looked very impressive as a lightweight, and Shinya Aoki, who is floating around the Asian promotions and will probably never fight for Zuffa (which is just as well, because he would get stomped).

To summarize, and for easy reference to see how many of these matchups come true, here is the final list of matches I would make for the fighters who don't have fights scheduled:

John Makdessi (9-2) vs. Mitch Clarke (9-2)
CJ Keith (8-1) vs. Jeremy Larsen (8-3, 1 NC)
James Vick (4-0) vs. Anton Kuivanen (17-5)
Al Iaquinta (5-2-1) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (15-5)
Aaron Riley (30-13-1) vs. George Sotiropoulos (14-4)
John Cofer (7-2) vs. Justin Salas (10-4)
Paul Taylor (11-6) vs. Myles Jury (10-0)
Michael Chiesa (8-0) vs. Sam Stout (18-7-1)
Terry Etim (15-4) vs. Anthony Njokuani (15-7, 1 NC)
Edson Barboza (10-1) vs. Fabricio Camoes (14-7-1)
Diego Sanchez (23-5) vs. Jamie Varner (20-7) - loser fights Guillard
Tony Ferguson (13-3) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (18-0)
Clay Guida (29-13) vs. Jim Miller (21-4)

So that's about it. Did I miss anyone? Let me know what you think in the comments, shoot me an email at ennistorch(at)gmail(dot)com, or hit me up on Twitter - @shawnennis.

History of the UFC Lightweight Championship

*Bold indicates title changing hands

2/23/01 – J. Pulver def C. Uno (Decision)
9/28/01 – J. Pulver def D. Hallman (Decision)
1/11/02 – J. Pulver def B. Penn (Decision)
*Pulver stripped due to contract dispute*
2/28/03 – B. Penn draw C. Uno
*Lightweight division dissolved*
10/14/06 – S. Sherk def K. Florian (Decision)
7/7/07 – S. Sherk def H. Franca (Decision)
*Sherk stripped due to positive steroids test*
1/19/08 – B. Penn def J. Stevenson (Submission)
5/24/08 – B. Penn def S. Sherk (TKO)
8/8/09 – B. Penn def K. Florian (Submission)
12/12/09 – B. Penn def D. Sanchez (TKO)
4/10/10 – F. Edgar def B. Penn (Decision)
8/28/10 – F. Edgar def B. Penn (Decision)
1/1/11 – F. Edgar draw G. Maynard
10/8/11 – F. Edgar def G. Maynard (TKO)
2/26/12 – B. Henderson def F. Edgar (Decision)
8/11/12 – B. Henderson def F. Edgar (Decision)

Longest Title Reign: B.J. Penn – 812 days
Most Title Defenses: B.J. Penn/Frankie Edgar (3)
Current Title Reign: Ben Henderson (186 days, 1 defense)