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By: Wesley Walker, MMATorch Specialist
Main Event: Mauricio Rua +155 VS Lyoto Machida -185
Prediction: Mauricio Rua decision victory
Betting Advice: I'd bet on Shogun to pull off the upset against the Champion. Shogun has already won this fight in my mind. He definitely won enough rounds to score a decision victory back in October. Shogun being an underdog allows you to make some money on what I believe to be the favorite. In the last fight Shogun was never caught in exchanges powerful enough to knock him out. I believe Shogun looks to take Machida down and make sure he gains the light heavy championship.
Co-Main Event: Josh Koscheck -230 VS Paul Daley +180
Prediction: Josh Koscheck by decision
Betting Advice: Josh Koscheck can dominate this fight if he uses his wrestling and does not care what the fans think. With a title shot up for grabs in this I believe he does not care if the fans fall asleep and he will just take Daley down and punish him like he did with Anthony Johnson. I believe Koscheck is talking about standing up with Daley to get him to not train takedown defense.
Koscheck has the most wins in the UFC without getting a title shot. This will motivate Josh to be smart and just land takedowns and get his rematch with Georges St. Pierre. Bet on Josh Koscheck with fairly low odds, but if you like Daley with a small wager as an underdog I would not object to it because of his power.
Undercard Fight: Kimbo Slice -115 VS Matt Mitrione -115
Prediction: Kimbo Slice by decision
Betting Advice: This is one of the closest fights on recent cards. This fight can go either way I could see both fighters getting caught or being dominated. I would bet on Kimbo because Matt Mitrione has to knock out Kimbo, and I believe Slice can get takedowns and ground and pound as he did in the Houston Alexander fight. I believe also Dana White put this fight together to see Kimbo win as he can drive up more pay per view ratings. My gut feeling is to bet on Kimbo Slice with the low odds for him to win.
Undercard Fight: Sam Stout -200 VS Jeremy Stephens +160
Prediction:Stephens upsets Stout by decision
Betting Advice: Both of these fighters like to stand and exchange, but both can take a tremendous punch. Stephens certainly hits harder of the two and that's where I see the fight shifting to Stephens favor. Jeremy had a healthy Joe Lauzon in their fight until Lauzon pulled off a submission, and I don't see that happening here. Yes, Stout just beat Lauzon but remember Joe was hampered by a torn ACL he had just rehabbed. Bet on the underdog Jeremy Stephens in this bout I believe he can take the fight wherever he wants and punish Sam Stout.
Undercard Fight: Alan Belcher -125 VS Patrick Cote -105
Prediction: Patrick Cote decision victory
Betting Advice: Cote has had a long layoff but will be carried by the crowd. I had him up in the Anderson Silva fight before he blew out his ACL. I would be careful on placing a bet because I can see the fight going either way, and this fight is going to be one of the best on the card. Go with your gut in this fight, and mine says bet on Cote; but avoid a big bet because of the close odds.
Undercard Fight: Tom Lawlor -600 VS Joe Doerksen +400
Prediction: Tom Lawlor by decision
Betting Advice: Huge favorite Tom Lawlor has been dominating and lackluster since the Ultimate fighter. I believe he win this fight with his wrestling and improved striking game which he displayed against Aaron Simpson. I would not bet on Lawlor though because of the high odds leaving no money in the pick. I like Doerksen to make this a tremendous fight, as he gave Mike Swick fits in the past and probably would have went far on season 2 of the ultimate fighter had he not gotten hurt in his 1st fight in the house. I would place a small bet on Joe Doerksen as I believe the odds are only this high because he is a replacement.
Undercard Fight: Marcus Davis -600 VS Jonathan Goulet +400
Prediction: Marcus Davis decision victory
Betting Advice: Lay off a bet unless you do a parlay. I do not see a way Goulet wins this fight. Bet on Davis in a parlay, as he dominates Goulet who is only on this card because he is Canadian. Davis will look to punish Goulet on the feet and on the ground to regain his position in the welterweight division.
Undercard Fight: Johny Hendricks -500 VS TJ Grant +350
Prediction: Johny Hendricks unanimous decision
Betting Advice: Hendricks displayed a great striking game against Amir Sadollah when he blasted him to a 1st round TKO. Against Grant I would bet on Hendricks because he is going to just take Grant down or stand up and punish him. T.J. Grant has to pull off a submission when Hendricks is napping, and I don't see that happening bet on Johny.
Undercard Fight: Tim Hague -260 VS Joey Beltran +200
Prediction: Joey Beltran unanimous upset victory
Betting Advice: Tim Hague is coming off two losses in a row and has not looked good at all in either loss. Joey Beltran pulled off a huge upset over Rolles Gracie in his last fight. Beltran can take the fight wherever he wants. He trains with a great team and is very well rounded. With the odds so favorable towards Tim Hague I would bet on Beltran because I believe he controls this fight and pulls off another upset.
Undercard Fight: Yoshiyuki Yoshida -300 VS Mike Guymon +220
Prediction: Yoshiyuki Yoshida by arm bar round 2
Betting Advice: Yoshida has huge odds to win this fight against Mike Guymon. Guymon struggles with submission experts and Yoshida has been able to submit some pretty good opponents. I would place a small bet on Guymon because there's no money in betting on Yoshida he can get Yoshida to the ground and pound on him.
Undercard Fight: Jason MacDonald -160 VS John Salter +130
Prediction: Jason Macdonald by rear naked choke
Betting Advice: John Salter has not faced the level of competition Jason Macdonald has faced. Macdonald is back in the UFC because he is Canadian and I believe he dominates in front of his home crowd. Bet on Macdonald as there are fairly low odds for him to win.
My Parlay
Shogun
Davis
Macdonald
Hendricks
Koscheck
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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