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By: Wesley Walker, MMATorch Specialist
Main Event: Georges St Pierre -700 VS Dan Hardy +450
Prediction: Georges St. Pierre by complete domination in a unanimous decision.
Betting Advice: There's no money to bet on Georges St. Pierre here, but I do not see Dan Hardy winning this fight. I gave Thiago Alves a great shot to win against St. Pierre and Alves got killed, even with Georges tearing his groin to the point he was in tremendous pain.
Also, Dan Hardy just keeps saying 'I'm going to knock out GSP,' but if Georges can pick up a huge Thiago Alves he certainly can put Dan Hardy on his back all day long. Plus, Hardy’s biggest wins in Mike Swick and Marcus Davis got blasted by their last opponents Ben Saunders and Paulo Thiago. I would not bet on St Pierre unless you parlay the fight with others on the card. I would place a small wager on the fight to get to a decision.
Co-Main Event: Frank Mir -155 VS Shane Carwin +125
Prediction: Frank Mir by submission round 1
Betting Advice: I believe this fight ends the same way the Cheick Kongo fight ended, with a knock down and choke to finish the fight. Shane Carwin has fought a lot of opponents who are very stiff in their standup. I believe Carwin has been placed at the top of the division because he is the only person who can compare to Brock Lesnar’s size and strength.
Shane Carwin does have knock out power, but was damaged badly in the Gabriel Gonzaga fight before getting the knock out. Like Frank Mir will always tell you he only has to get the fight to the ground once to use his superior Jiu-Jitsu and submit his opponent. I would bet on Frank Mir and bet on the fight to end before the end of the second round, because Shane Carwin could catch Mir to end the fight and Frank can choke Carwin out pretty quickly when the fight goes to the ground.
Undercard Fight: Jon Fitch -350 VS Ben Saunders +250
Prediction: Ben Saunders upset unanimous decision victory.
Betting Advice: I like Ben Saunders’ length in this fight, something that Marcus Davis could not overcome in their fight. Remember Marcus Davis was coming off a close split-decision loss to Dan Hardy and Saunders shocked the MMA world; I believe he does it again in this fight.
Saunders only struggled with Mike Swick, and that’s because Swick has the same exact body type he does. I believe John Fitch was really geared up to fight Thiago Alves again and was let down by the change of opponents. John Fitch is a great wrestler, but will struggle to get the lengthy Ben Saunders to the ground.
My advice is to place a small bet on the underdog in this fight. Ben Saunders has a great chance to win this fight, but also place a bet for this fight to get to a decision because Jon Fitch can take a beating and keep on going. Plus Jon Fitch does not have anything to really hurt Ben Saunders with to get the stoppage.
Undercard Fight: Ricardo Almeida -150 VS Matt Brown +120
Betting Advice: Ricardo Almeida and Matt Brown impressed in their last fights. Almeida took on Kendall Grove and took him down and punished him to a decision win. Matt Brown took on James Wilks and got punished early, but recovered and took over to pound out Wilks in the third round.
The X-Factor in this fight is that Almeida has not fought at welterweight before. I am not sure how he will deal with the weight cut down to 170 lbs. I believe Almeida can takedown Brown all day long in this fight and look for submissions. Matt Brown is getting better at his ground game, but he certainly is not in the class of Almeida.
I believe Matt Brown will hang tough in this fight, but he has lost a lot of bouts due to submission which means place a small bet on Almeida in this fight. I believe this is a close fight to call, therefore only place a small bet on Almeida.
Undercard Fight: Rousimar Palhares -250 VS Tomasz Drwal +200
Prediction: Rousimar Palhares by unanimous decision.
Betting Advice: I just can not get over how big Palhares is as a middleweight, he has so much size and strength on the competition. Tomasz Drwal is coming off a surprise win over Drew Mcfedries which he displayed a tremendous ground and stand up game. That being said I believe he can not deal with the takedown of Palhares in this fight. I would bet on Rousimar Palhares because of his ability to get the fight to the ground and work his jiu-jitsu and ground in pound.
Undercard Fight: Jim Miller -400 VS Mark Bocek +300
Prediction: Jim Miller by unanimous decision.
Betting Advice: These are two jiu-jitsu fighters, which means the fight will probably remain standing. That gives an edge to Jim Miller who out struck Duane Ludwig which is no easy task. Miller has enough jiu-jitsu to get out of anything Mark Bocek has to offer. I would not bet on Miller because there is not much money in that, but I would parlay this fight. I do believe this fight gets to a decision, therefore I would bet on this fight to go three rounds.
Undercard Fight: Kurt Pellegrino -230 VS Fabricio Camoes +180
Prediction: Kurt Pellegrino by unanimous decision.
Betting Advice: I believe this fight goes just like the Josh Neer fight where Kurt Pellegrino takes down Fabricio Camoes all day and Kurt survives submission attempts. Fabricio Camoes is very dangerous on the ground, but Kurt Pellegrino is just a step below in his ground game. I would bet on Kurt Pellegrino to takedown Camoes and grind out a decision victory.
Undercard Fight: Nate Diaz -300 VS Rory Markham +220
Prediction: Nate Diaz by submission round 2
Betting Advice: Nate Diaz cannot defend a take down at all, but he will not have to deal with Rory Markham taking him down. Rory Markham will chase him down the same way Gray Maynard did in their fight back at UFC Fight Night.
Like Ricardo Almeida, this is Nate Diaz’s first fight at welterweight, but he is not cutting weight, he is going up which will not drain his body for this fight. I believe that Nate Diaz’s pawing and length will be the key in this fight. The jab will help Nate Diaz to get the fight to the ground and take an easy submission victory if he is smart.
Knowing Nate though he will try to stand and bang when he can get the fight to the ground with his judo. I would bet on Nate in this fight I believe he can win a decision by jabbing or be smart and take Markham down and finish the fight.
Undercard Fight: Matthew Riddle -230 VS Greg Soto +180
Prediction: Matthew Riddle by unanimous decision.
Betting Advice: Two wrestlers are fighting in this bout, with Matthew Riddle possessing a superior wrestling game. This is Greg Soto’s first fight in the UFC or any big time show, so you know the nerves will be tremendous. I would place a small wager on Riddle because I just don’t know enough about Greg Soto. I believe Matthew should be able to handle Soto, but just so much is unknown in this fight so be careful on betting huge amounts on Matthew Riddle.
My Parlay
Georges St Pierre
Frank Mir
Ricardo Almeida
Rousimar Palhares
Jim Miller
Nate Diaz
See a listing of previous BEST BETS columns by CLICKING HERE
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