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By: Wesley Walker, MMATorch Specialist
Main Event: Jon Jones - 260 VS Brandon Vera +200
Prediction: Jon Jones inks out decision victory.
Betting Advice: Make a bet on Jon Jones. If he can get Matt Hamill to the ground he can use his judo and wrestling to get Brandon Vera to the ground. Jones is so athletic and powerful he can impose his will on Brandon Vera. Jon Jones also has great striking; not to the level of Vera, but he has enough to not sustain heavy damage and then get the fight to the ground. Bet on Jones to win the fight.
Co-Main Event: Junior Dos Santos -280 VS Gabriel Gonzaga +210
Prediction: Gabriel Gonzaga gets an upset decision victory.
Betting Advice: Gabriel Gonzaga is a powerful fighter who has great strikes and a slick ground game. Junior Dos Santos needs to keep the fight standing and Gonzaga should look to get the fight to the ground. I see an upset in the making just as I saw C.B. Dolloway an underdog to beat Goran Rejic.
Gonzaga was able to take Shane Carwin’s huge body to the ground, so he should be strong enough to take Junior Dos Santos down. Once on the ground we will see for the first time how good Dos Santos is off his back. I believe Gonzaga will be more cautious than in the Shane Carwin fight and pick his shots until he is able to grab a takedown.
Undercard Fight: Cheick Kongo -400 VS Paul Buentello +300
Prediction: Cheick Kongo TKO round 2.
Betting Advice: No money in Cheick Kongo, but I don’t see Paul Buentello winning this fight. Both guys are strikers with Kongo having the edge in power strikes. Also, Kongo has the wrestling and ground game edge. When Buentello faced another power striker Andrei Arlovski knocked him out in less than 30 seconds. My bet would be Kongo if I just had to place one but I would hold off because the risk is not worth the reward.
Undercard Fight: James Irvin - 130 VS Alessio Sakara -Even
Prediction: James Irvin by decision.
Betting Advice: Another battle of strikers here with Alessio Sakara being more traditional and James Irvin having more of the power edge. When people have stood with James Irvin they have been punished, except for Anderson Silva of course. I believe these two fighters will stand and trade.
I do not see a finish in the fight due to both being able to take a tremendous shot. James Irvin in my mind will be able to load up and be able to dominate Sakara. Irvin should be able to get a hard fought decision victory. My bet with the low odds take a flyer on the favorite James Irvin to win this fight.
Undercard Fight: Brendan Schaub -240 VS Chase Gormley + 190
Prediction: Brendan Schaub decision victory.
Betting Advice: Chase Gormley is a very big man that being said Brendan Schaub seems to thrive when facing bigger opponents. On the show he fought Marcus Jones and got off his back and finished Jones. He was able to get big Roy Nelson off him got caught later but Roy Nelson is a veteran and got it done don’t hold that against Brendan. Brendan Schaub has the superior striking in this fight and should be able to keep the fight standing and get back to his feet if he is taken to the ground. My bet is on Schaub to win relatively low odds for a decisive victory for Brendan Schuab in my mind.
Undercard Fight: Vladimir Matyushenko -190 VS Eliot Marshall +155
Prediction: Vladimir Matyushenko by decision.
Betting Advice: Bet on Vladimir Matyushenko to win a dominating decision over Eliot Marshall because of his wrestling. As you remember on the show he couldn't get off his back against Ryan Bader. No way does he not get taken down all day in his fight with his far superior wrestling ability.
Undercard Fight: Clay Guida -450 VS Shannon Gugerty + 325
Prediction: Clay Guida by decision.
Betting Advice: The most underrated fight on this card is Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty. These two fighters are mirror images of each other both with a wrestling base, but Clay Guida’s wrestling is just stronger. Not a good line to bet on with Guida being so high of a favorite. Guida always fights his fight and should take Gugerty down and ride him to a decision victory.
Do not bet on this fight unless you can get a rounds line. Then bet on the fight to be a decision because all of Clay Guida’s victories are decisions.
Undercard Fight: Jason Brilz -160 Vs Eric Schafer +130
Prediction: Eric Schafer by rear naked choke round 2.
Betting Advice: Take a flyer on Eric Schafer because of Jason Brilz struggles with Jiu-Jitsu opponents. Just throw out a little money on Schafer with his superior ground game not totally confident, but enough to place a small wager on Eric Schafer with a big payout.
Undercard Fight: Mike Pierce -450 VS Julio Paulino +325
Prediction: Mike Pierce decision victory.
Betting Advice: Mike Pierce was impressive in his loss to Jon Fitch, but I believe he can take this fight against a last minute replacement. There's no money in picking Mike Pierce, though, therefore I like a small wager on Julio Paulino. The line is so high for Mike Pierce because they do not know Paulino, but this will be a close fight. Both come from a wrestling background. Paulino though has a very powerful striking game. He has knocked out some impressive fighters in Terry Martin and Rob Yundt. A small wager on Paulino would be wise or a wager on this fight to get to a decision either way is a great play.
Undercard Fight: Duane Ludwig -180 VS Darren Elkins +150
Prediction: Darren Elkins win unanimous decision
Betting Advice: I like Elkins to pull off the upset with his wrestling base. In my mind Elkins is the favorite in the fight and only an underdog because of Ludwig’s notoriety. Duane Ludwig can not sprawl as evidence in the Jim Miller fight. Darren Elkins has a powerful shot and as long as he avoids the heavy shot from Ludwig he can get the fight to the ground at any point. Duane Ludwig’s prime was when he knocked out Jens Pulver back in 2003. I like to bet on the underdog in this fight.
Undercard Fight: John Howard -230 VS Daniel Roberts +180
Prediction: John Howard by TKO round 3
Betting Advice: This is a close fight to call with the x-factor in my mind being that Howard wants to fight Anthony Johnson when Johnson gets healthy. Howard and Johnson were slotted for this card with tremendous trash talk back and forth until Anthony Johnson had to pull out due to injury.
Daniel Roberts has a base in wrestling, but has struggled in his fights to keep a strong base and keep fighters on there backs. Roberts has a slick ground game for a wrestler with wins from unorthodox positions.
I see John Howard’s power being too much for Daniel in this fight and Howard has a habit of getting late TKO’s. It's a close fight I would stay away from, but if I had to make a bet I would bet on John Howard.
My Parlay
Darren Elkins +150
Vladimir Matyushenko -190
Cheick Kongo -400
Jon Jones -260
James Irvin -130
See a listing of previous BEST BETS columns by CLICKING HERE
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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