*** The music hits ***
THE CHAMP IS.... HERE!
Yes, it’s your first ever two-time, two-time Prediction champion here to put it on the line. Some folks get to wait a month to defend, but not me. I’m a fighting champion, a people’s champion. The one and only, never duplicated, but always appreciated Prediction guru. And, as champ, I should wait for Pelkey to put forth his challenger’s rationale, but why bother? He’s as toasted as cheese on a lunch line. He’s got as much hang time as a blocked punt.
With that in mind, here’s my take on UFC 72, where I will attempt to defend my crown for the second time.
With eight fights on the card, there is a lot of potential for some wild finishes. Throw in some hometown lads fighting in front of the faithful Irish fanatics and this figures to be a tough night to call fights. That hasn’t stopped me before, although it has made me look foolish from time to time.
UFC 72: VICTORY
1) Dustin Hazelett (8-3, 1 TKO, 5 Sub) vs. Steve Lynch (4-0, 2 TKO) - Welterweights
Lynch is the hometown boy and if he gains a victory, it will get the crowd way into this card and make it tough on a few of the fighters on deck. Having said that, I think Lynch is over his head here. Of his four wins, only one guy has a winning record. Most of his opponents were fighting their first or second fight. Hazelett has been in the cage twice, beating Diego Saraiva by decision and losing by Kimura to Tony Desouza. I think this bodes well for Hazelett as long as he doesn’t try and stand with Lynch. No point in getting caught with a punch in front of screaming Irishmen (sounds like a pretty good shot, eh?). I see Hazelett getting a takedown, advancing position and getting a submission…. Unless he gets Koed. Nah. Hazelett by submission in round one.
2) Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith (11-3, 9 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (12-5, 3 TKO, 8 Sub) - Middleweights
Well now, this should be a great fight. Of many great fights on this card, this looks pretty evenly matched. Smith, you may recall, was the one who threw a desperation punch to knock out Pete Sell at TUF finale in November. Following that, he inexplicably lost a snoozer to Patrick Cote, who probably won’t be seen in the UFC for a while. Herman is, of course, a TUF darling and has the personality to match his nickname. Herman is 1-2 in the UFC with losses to Kendall Grove and Jason MacDonald. I suspect that this is a tailor made matchup for Herman who could use another win to boost his credibility in the middleweight division. Unlike the opponents to whom he lost, Herman actually has a height advantage and will not be giving anything significant in terms of reach. Smith is still trading on his slugfest and highlight reel knockout of Sell, but I wouldn’t consider that a quality win in hindsight. These two should be happy to slug it out and I think Herman has the better striking game to earn him the win. Remember, Smith was losing to Sell and was very much on the verge of getting pounded out. I’ll go with Herman here by TKO in round two.
3) Eddie Sanchez (6-1, 4 TKO) vs. Colin “Big C” Robinson (8-2, 4 TKO, 3 Sub) - Heavyweights
Another Irish fighter steps into the cage in this one. It must suck to be Sanchez. “Hi, Eddie, first we’re going to feed you to Cro Cop in his UFC debut. Now, we’re going to put you in there against a hometown guy in his own zip code to stoke the fans up. It’s good to have you on board!” Robinson hails from Ballymena, which is about 25 miles from Belfast. Robinson has won six in a row against guys I have never heard of (no surprise there). Sanchez had won six in a row, including one in the UFC, until running into (or more accurately, away from) Cro Cop. It’s hard to take Sanchez seriously in the cage. Robinson is the bigger fighter with a hometown crowd behind him in his UFC debut. The stage is set here for a big time knockout victory for Robinson and that’s what I’m going with. I don’t think Sanchez will show the reticence he did with Filipovic, but I don’t think it will matter much. I expect Robinson to come out bombing away and take Sanchez out early. Robinson by TKO in round one.
4) Jason Tan (4-1, 1 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Marcus “The Irish Hand Grenade
Davis looks to extend his winning streak to four in the UFC and nine overall with this battle against Englishman Jason Tan. Tan is coming off a split decision loss nine months ago. Davis was active in April getting Pete Spratt to tap out (been a tough spring for Spratt, eh?). I think this is another fight to get the fans hot for the main card. I don’t think it will matter where Davis is from. As long as the crowd hears his nickname, they should be sufficiently into their pots enough to roar their approval. I’d be surprised if Tan chooses to stand with Davis. If he does, it’ll be a short fight. If he doesn’t, I think Davis will get to him eventually and show his ground skills. Either way, I think this is a showcase for Davis who is quietly ascending the welterweight ladder. Davis by TKO in round two.
5) Tyson Griffin (8-1, 5 TKO, 3 Sub) vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (21-7, 3 TKO, 11 Sub) – Lightweights
Finally, the live card! Guida has a ton of experience, a cool nickname and has fought some name opponents like Gilbert Melendez and Din Thomas (OK, so that’s an odd combination). He lost both by decision, but went 25 minutes with Melendez and that’s not bad to have on your resume. Griffin was last seen trying to break Frank Edgar’s leg and pull out a victory in February. I thought he underestimated Edgar and he paid for it. I don’t think he’ll make the same mistake here. Guida is a solid competitor with pretty well-rounded skills. He is 1-1 in the UFC with the Thomas loss, but a debut win over Justin James (who?). The lightweight division is an evolving mess right now and both guys could use a win. Griffin could especially use the win to get his mojo back after a great battle with Edgar, certainly a fight of the year nominee. Griffin was 8-0 with back to back wins over Duane “Bang” Ludwig and David Lee. Griffin is more of a banger, but can work the ground as well. I think this is another good matchup on a card that is full of well-matched fighters. I’m going to go with Griffin here. You can only lose so many shootouts. Going 0-2 in the UFC is not a good way to hang around and he is too talented not to pick up a win. Expect a fast paced, up and down battle with Griffin eventually getting the upper hand and landing enough blows to set up a submission victory. I’m not sure if it’ll be strikes or a choke. I’ll flip a coin and go with a choke/armbar victory. This could go the other way, but I like Griffin in what should be a tough fight with a third round submission victory.
6) Rory “Version 2.5” Singer (11-6, 1 TKO, 7 Sub) vs. Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald (18-8, 1 TKO, 16 Sub) – Middleweights
Singer is going by “Outburst” on the UFC website. I guess that’s better than “Version 2.5” Version 2.5 implies that a couple of the previous versions sucked, so, um, you get the point, right? I’ve never been real impressed with Singer and, frankly, I’m surprised this fight made the main card where Smith vs. Herman didn’t. This looks to be a ground war unless one of these fighters decides to make his bones throwing punches. MacDonald was last seen taking a beating from Rich Franklin. Singer was last seen in the cage getting pounded out by Yushin Okami (nothing like intrigue, eh?). It suggests that both of these fighters are a step below the elite level. Having said that, MacDonald is making his living off of TUF fighters and we all remember Rory’s run in the house and how that turned out. I like MacDonald’s game at this point much more than Singer’s, Version 2.5 or not. MacDonald really showed a lot of heart and toughness in his loss to Franklin. I like his ground skills and I think he can take advantage of Singer on the standup to gain an edge on the ground. These guys have 23 submission wins between them and five submission defeats. It would seem someone’s tapping in this one. I’ll go with MacDonald to get the tap in round three.
7) Forrest Griffin (13-4, 3 TKO, 6 Sub) vs. Hector “Sick Dog” Ramirez (6-2-1, 4 TKO, 1 Sub) – Light Heavyweights
This should be one entertaining fight. Both guys bring the pace and action and neither are the type to back up or give ground. Griffin was the breakout star from TUF 1 and has carved his place into the hearts of MMA newbs (like me) with his epic first battle against Stephan Bonner, his spponing of Bill Mahood and his gritty performance against Tito Ortiz. Both men are coming off devastating knockout losses. Ramirez lost to James Irvin back in November and Griffin was shockingly dispatched by Keith Jardine back in December. Griffin is 4-2 in the UFC and Ramirez is 0-1. If this is as entertaining as I expect to be, neither guy should lose much ground in the UFC. However, as I need to pick a winner, I’ll go with Forrest. He has lost to two solid fighters who are top ten caliber guys. He has a granite chin and can fight on his feet or on the ground. Ramirez is no pushover and has solid hands. Griffin has a distinct height and reach advantage and I expect him to parlay that into better striking and better ground and pound should it go down. I am really looking forward to this fight. I think it’ll go deep into the third with both guys getting their shots in, but Griffin finishing the fight late in the third with strikes. Griffin by TKO in round three.
8) Rich “Ace” Franklin (21-2, 11 TKO, 9 Sub) #3 ranked Middleweight vs. Yushin Okami (20-3, 7 Sub, 4 TKO) #8 ranked Middleweight – Middleweights
And now, the MAIN event of the evening! Okami is as hot as anyone right now, having won six in a row, including a good win over Mike Swick just four months ago. He is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Alan Belcher, Rory Singer and Kalib Starnes. It’s not murderer’s row, but that’s not bad and wins are wins. I thought he looked good against Swick, but I was surprised that he could not finish Swick on the ground. His punches seemed to lack pop. He clearly won the fight, but it was… anticlimactic. Franklin resumed his quest to get his belt back with an emphatic win over Jason MacDonald in March. “Ace” looked very much like a man on a mission and I suspect he is looking at Okami with a title shot in the back of his mind. Okami may pose a problem for Franklin in terms of ground skills, but I think this fight will be mostly a standup battle and Franklin is still as good as anybody not named Anderson Silva in this division. Plus, I think Franklin has more bang in his strikes and will be able to trade with Okami if necessary and get the upper hand. I think Okami will put up a good fight, but I see Franklin continuing his march back to the top of the mountain. I’ll go with Franklin by TKO in round three.
And, there it is! Picks from the two-time champ! Wisdom from the tree. Beer from the tap. Drink it in, my ducks! Feel free to give me your thoughts at my forum on the message boards. The link is right HERE.
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