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MOORE: UFC Fight Night 38 "Shogun vs. Henderson II" Betting Guide - Personal Bets and Tips
Mar 21, 2014 - 3:10:31 PM
MOORE: UFC Fight Night 38 "Shogun vs. Henderson II" Betting Guide - Personal Bets and Tips
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By: Dan Moore, MMATorch UK Columnist

I'm 16-6 on my picks for the last two events combined (UFC Fight Night 37 and UFC 171, however, most of my bets have crashed and burned. I keep hedging my bets toward a bigger and quicker payoff rather than biding my time taking advantage of the hectic UFC schedule. So, this weekend I'm playing it relatively safe with one big four-fold bet featuring two fighters I have the utmost confidence in, and two who offer very good value.

Never underestimate the advantage of a home crowd and the potential for judges to favour local talent. Proceed with caution when selecting any international fighter this Sunday because none of them can be classed as certainties even if some are the betting favourites. We've got three distinctly average cards coming over the next few weeks before we reach UFC 172 in Baltimore. Although there will inevitably be some decent betting value, most of the talent on show are underwhelming.

The bets I write about are my own based on only my knowledge and some research. I'm simply sharing my trials and tribulations as a degenerate gambler. If you follow my advice and lose, don't come crying to me because I'll be busy crying myself. If you can afford to throw good money away and what you read tempts you, by all means give it a go, but, be prepared to see a big fat zero in your betting account after (much like mine!).

To get you started here are the betting lines (for reference) courtesy of 5Dimes:

(-) represents the favourite and (+) represents the underdog. My overall picks are highlighted in bold:

Mauricio Rua: -250
Dan Henderson: +210

Cezar Ferreira: -195
C.B. Dollaway: +155

Norman Parke: -195
Leonardo Santos: +155

Gian Villante: -140
Fabio Maldonado: +100

Mairbek Taisumov: -270
Michel Prazeres: +190

Rony Jason: -165
Steven Siler: +125

Diego Brandao: -270
Will Chope: +190

Ronny Markes: -705
Thiago Santos: +435

Scott Jorgensen: -265
Jussier Formiga: +185

Kenny Robertson: -120
Thiago Perpetuo: -120

Noad Lahat: -215
Godofredo Pepey: +165

Francimar Barraso: -140
Hans Stringer: +100

MY FOUR-FOLD OF THE NIGHT

Kenny Robertson looked awesome against Brock Jardine and executed a perfect modified kneebar to earn a first-round victory. He then went on to convincingly lose to Sean Pierson at UFC 161, and hasn't fought since, so he's probably the weak link in this bet. However, Thiago Perpetuo hasn't shown any of the knock-out power that earned him a UFC contract. Robertson is durable and very capable of getting a win in this one providing fighting in Brazil doesn't get to him like many before.

Will Chope will look like a giant in his fight with Diego Brandao, but the idiom, “The bigger they are the harder they fall”, most likely rings true on Sunday night. Brandao comfortably saw off a much taller Pablo Garza in Sweden last year and there is no reason to think he won't be able to do the same here. Chope had a decent record coming into the UFC and looked good in the first round against Max Holloway before it all went wrong. Look for Brandao to get the quick finish, especially if he struggles to make weight again.

Not much to say about the Ronny Markes vs. Thiago Santos fight. Markes is capable of grinding out victories and will be looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss to Yoel Romero last November. It's highly unlikely that Santos shows the same kind of finishing power Romero did, and more likely Markes will get the opportunity to show he can actually finish a fight in the UFC having gone to a decision in all three of his UFC wins thus far.

Scott Jorgensen has lost four of his last five fights. Is it because he's past his best or because he fought and lost to Makovsky, Faber, Wineland and Barao. I'm going say it's a bit of both, but whatever the reason, Jorgensen needs to win desperately. Formiga is coming off a loss to perennial contender, Joseph Benavidez, who exposed his obvious weaknesses much like John Dodson did. This could go either way, but with the home crowd advantage against someone without knock-out power, I expect Formiga to win this via decision.

Four-Fold accumulator on Ronny Markes, Jussier Formiga, Diego Brandao and Kenny Robertson

Feel free to get in touch and offer your valued opinion, @MMATorchDan


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