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UFC 100 Predictions
PREDICTIONS: Bent's Preview & Predictions for Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Jul 7, 2008 - 12:54:48 PM
PREDICTIONS: Bent's Preview & Predictions for Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
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The only way for this main event and this entire card in particular to be pushed any harder would be if Vince Offer told us we were going to love these fights and shilled UFC 100 instead of the SlapChop. I can picture it now with him telling us about the "boring tuna" served up everywhere else and stringing together a line of words which rhyme such as "ground, pound, crown" when giving his feeling on how this main event will end with a Lesnar win. However, the thing is that there has been no real need for the UFC to shill this event at all.

They have advertised it and presented it to us, but the fights sell themselves and no one needs to tell us how this card rivals the dawn of time itself. In all honesty, the fights on this card have taken a backseat to the promotion of the event itself and I have enjoyed this very much. I say this because the advertising for UFC 94 was so big and bold that there was no way St. Pierre and Penn could have come even close to matching it whatsoever. This time, with UFC 100, it is not about one fight or even two but rather three, four and more. It is about the event itself. UFC 100 is the King of them all, and perched at the top is the showdown between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir which will determine who shall wear the UFC Heavyweight crown.

Brock Lesnar holds a career record of 3 wins against only 1 defeat with 1 win by KO, 1 by submission and the other victory coming by way of unanimous decision. Lesnar's victories came against Min Soo Kim, Heath Herring and Randy Couture, and his one loss came at the hands of Frank Mir.

Needless to say, Lesnar has been on the accelerated program and he has jumped immediately into the deep waters of heavyweight competition. Many have expressed displeasure with his rapid rise, but they fail to stop and realize the prodigious talents that Lesnar has which make him worthy of what to others seems to be "too much, too soon."

Brock Lesnar's amateur wrestling career was nothing short of successful as he has shown that he can win on every single level. Lesnar was a two time NJCAA All-American, 1998 NJCAA Heavyweight Champion, a two time NCAA Division I All-American, two time Big Ten Conference Champion, and the 2000 NCAA Division I Heavyweight Champion.

Lesnar's record as an amateur wrestler stands at an eyepopping 106-5. Lesnar would go on to parlay this success into a career with Vince McMahon's World Wrestling Entertainment, but has gone on record as saying he would have probably gone into MMA had the pay been better at the time. Lesnar made the smartest decision ever as he earned millions from professional wrestling at a time when even the very top MMA fighters were making pennies by comparison.

Lesnar took this job no differently than Verne Gagne walked away from a professional football opportunity in order to make more money in wrestling. This of course would cause him problems which haunt him to this day, as detractors view him with disdain for having been a pro wrestler, and some of his fans from pro wrestling feel as if he owes them or turned his back on the business.

Yes, Brock Lesnar was a professional wrestler. He is no longer and has as much to do with pro wrestling as you do with pizzas if you happened to work for a pizza joint as one of your first jobs. It annoys me to no end when his detractors point to his professional wrestling career as if this lessens his abilities inside of the Octagon, and it annoys me just the same when pro wrestling fans act as if he somehow represents them.

If Lesnar wins on July 11th, it does not mean anything to pro wrestling whatsoever. Period. This will not mean that a "pro wrestler" is the UFC Heavyweight Champion. Spud Webb's winning of a Slam Dunk contest did not prove that little guys could dunk, but rather proved that he could do it. Lesnar's rise to the top of the MMA world doesn't legitimize pro wrestling nor does it suddenly prove that pro wrestlers are any more or less tough than they already were. It simply means that Brock Lesnar could do it, and the fact is that this man is gifted.

Frank Mir is an enigma. He is also a stud if you listen to him describe himself, and depending on the shape he is in will dictate if this is indeed true. Mir is a gifted athlete himself albeit not as imposing as Lesnar. Mir, like many others, watched the early UFC events and fancied himself an athlete capable of competing in their world.

Young Frank Mir was a student of Kenpo Karate at his father's school and upon watching Royce Gracie's UFC success, imagined that he could defend himself against this discipline with that which he already knew. Mir's father implored him to open his eyes and into the world of wrestling with the understanding that this could help the young athlete better defend himself against submissions. Mir was a success in this world as he won the Nevada State High School Wrestling Championship in 1998 as a heavyweight. Mir's amateur success begins and ends with this, and clearly pales in comparison to Lesnar's decorated youth, but it still shows that Mir is indeed on an elite level as well.

UFC matchmaker Joe Silva met Frank Mir early on and saw a great amount of potential but wanted for Mir to prove himself before any opportunities would be presented. Mir would go on to make his professional debut on July 14, 2001 and won a unanimous decision over Jerome Smith at HOOKnSHOOT: Showdown. Mir would then defeat Dan Quinn in his next bout which took place in August of 2001 on the IFC Warriors Challenge 15 card. Following these two victories, it was time for Mir to try his hand in the UFC.

Frank Mir made his UFC debut at UFC 34: High Voltage in November of 2001 and submitted Roberto Travern in the first round of their fight. He would appear at UFC 36 and win once again as he submitted Pete Williams in the very first round once more. Up next was Ian Freeman on the UFC 38 card and Mir would taste defeat for the first time as he suffered a TKO loss in the very first round. Every fighter gets defeated, and not one single mixed martial artist yet has been able to sport a perfect record for too long. This is the nature of the sport and proof positive of the steep learning curve. Mir defeated Lesnar at UFC 81 and was quick to boast of this but how quickly he forgets how Ian Freeman took the fight out of him at UFC 38. It happens to the best of them and both Lesnar and Mir are in this category.

Frank Mir's career record stands at 12 wins against 3 losses with 2 by KO and 7 coming by way of submission. Notable wins have come against the likes of "Tank" Abbott, Tim Sylvia, the aforementioned Brock Lesnar and most recently Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Mir's losses have come at the hands of the aforementioned Ian Freeman as well as Marcio Cruz and Brandon Vera. It was Mir's victory over Nogueira that stands as his most impressive accomplishment because no one had ever battered Nogueira like this before, and no one imagined that Mir could do it.

While that may be the most impressive display of striking by Mir, it was his winning the UFC Heavyweight Championship after defeating Tim Sylvia at UFC 48 that probably stands as Mir's proudest moment for a variety of reasons. The first being that he became the UFC Heavyweight Champion but he also was awarded his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu following his performance. This bout is notable for the snapping of Tim Sylvia's arm which led to the stoppage and caused controversy for a few terse moments before all parties realized that Herb Dean did the right thing in stopping the bout. The day was June 19, 2004 and life seemed great for Frank Mir. Just three months later it would all change.

Frank Mir's motorcycle wreck in September of 2004 changed everything in his life and his return to the sport was much too sudden. Mir suffered serious damage and would undergo multiple surgeries in efforts to correct the damage and begin rehabilitation. In the meantime, due to his inability to compete, he was stripped of his belt and Andrei Arlovski would become the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion following his victory over Tim Sylvia. Mir's world was falling apart and his return to action on February 4, 2006 would only serve to make things worse. Mir faced Mauricio Cruz on the UFC 57 card and suffered an embarrassing first round TKO loss in his return.

Mir's next appearance at UFC 61 is notable for being his first victory back, but also for the horrible shape he was in for the bout against Dan Christison. Mir won by way of unanimous decision but looked like he had spent too many nights sampling the brews at the Spearmint Rhino rather than training hard. Mir's next bout did him no further favors as he lost to Brandon Vera by first round TKO and it looked as if he were no longer a competent heavyweight. This loss to Vera was also responsible for many buying into Brandon Vera as a legitimate contender as well, but in hindsight it becomes clear that he merely beat an incapacitated Mir.

It had become nearly absolute fact that you just never knew which Mir you were going to get to show up for a fight. When it was announced that Brock Lesnar would be entering the world of MMA and taking on Frank Mir at UFC 81, it didn't seem to anyone like Lesnar had bitten off far more than he could chew. We wanted to believe this, but based on Mir's yo-yoing physical shape and recent efforts it was not considered a big stretch to imagine Lesnar would come out victorious.

Those watching the fight saw that it was going to play out that way as well as Lesnar took Mir down and began to pound him from the very beginning. This bout is very, very notable due to referee Steve Mazzagatti stopping the bout due to Lesnar striking the back of Mir's head, and not only did Lesnar lose a point but he also lost a dominant position two times due to this. Lesnar would take Mir down once more, but this time would pay when he escaped an arm bar and found himself caught in a kneebar and was forced to tap out. Frank Mir had beaten Brock Lesnar, but most watching didn't view this as anything more than the rookie tasting defeat and learning a lesson from a veteran. It was not as if this were a definitive victory for Mir by any means.

Here we are now at UFC 100 and both men have gone on to post hugely impressive victories over top stars and have convincingly beaten these men. Lesnar would go on to stomp Heath Herring and Randy Couture while Mir would dispatch of Nogueira with relative ease, and now both men wear a version of the UFC Heavyweight Championship and must meet in order to determine an undisputed champion. This is Frank Mir's chance to reclaim his title and get his career back to where it just might have been had he not been in the motorcycle wreck. This is Brock Lesnar's chance to guarantee that every fan and fighter can see him now and prove that he not only belongs in this world but at the very top of it. Two men who have faced each other before are now going to do it again with everything on the line and the world watching anxiously.

This, to me, is the MMA version of Mike Tyson vs. Michael Spinks heavyweight boxing championship bout from June of 1988. This was for all of the marbles and featured the raw but brutally efficient Tyson going up against the highly decorated and extremely skilled Spinks. Tyson was the favorite, but no one could argue if you were to tell them Spinks would pull it off and explain why. Both Spinks and Tyson were undefeated and something had to give. What ended up happening would change boxing as we know it and elevate Mike Tyson to near-deity status.

The same will happen for MMA on July 11th when Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir meet for a second time. Mir is the technically skilled and experienced veteran of the sport who is a two-time champion and black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and Lesnar is the "double leg freight train" who brings an amateur wrestling background along with loads of aggression. Sure, Mir is capable of doing some things which Lesnar cannot, in much the same way that Spinks fought in a different manner from Tyson.

However, what changes everything is what happens when you get hit, and one only has to look at Michael Spinks' one loss on his record which came after only ninety seconds in the ring with Mike Tyson.

We know that Mir can submit Lesnar, and we know this because it happened at UFC 81. We also know that Lesnar can take down Mir and hammer him with blows, and we know this because it happened as well. What we do not know is what kind of shape will Mir be in for this fight, and how much has Lesnar truly improved since having last been in there against Couture. One can imagine Mir will be in the best shape of his life and at his very best overall, but the same must also be said of Lesnar who could possibly be better than we have ever seen.

Bent's Prediction: Brock Lesnar by TKO in the 1st Round

We are entering the "Lesnar Era."

Just like boxing fans lined up for the "Tyson fight," so too will newly minted MMA fans who will gleefully ask if you are "getting the Lesnar fight."

Mike Tyson was not the greatest heavyweight of all time, and likely was very, very far from it. He was supremely quick, could slip punches well and had power that few could match. In his time, the heavyweight division was relatively weak, but to a certain extent we could also argue that perhaps Tyson was just that much better. Either way, here was the guy who was not the most technically skilled ,and he certainly wasn't the most experienced either, but he reigned supreme atop the division as a champion at the age of 20.

Brock Lesnar is not 20, but he is clearly a green mixed martial artist and his rise to prominence has been met with the same awe once reserved for Mike Tyson. Lesnar is physically gifted and there is not a single heavyweight out there that can match him in terms of size. Many are hopping off of the Cain Velasquez wagon and hitching a ride with Shane Carwin, but this my friends is Brock Lesnar's division and is likely to be his for as long as he wants.

The undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion will be decided on Saturday night, and it will be Brock Lesnar. I can see it now and it ends somewhere in the early stages of round number one. Brock Lesnar will dispatch of Frank Mir rather easily, once he is able to land his shots. Frank Mir will not be as good as he looked against Nogueira at UFC 92, and Brock Lesnar will look better than we have seen him at UFC 100.

So, it's the "Brock Lesnar era" and he is the MMA version of Mike Tyson. All of this sounds good, so long as we don't have to deal with jail time, ear biting and Peter McNeeley fights.

Although, Tim Sylvia may be available to fill that role once Lesnar cleans out the division.


DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
PREDICTIONS: Bent's Preview & Predictions for Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
BENT: UFC 100 Prelim previews and predictions - Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman
BENT: UFC 100 Prelim previews and predictions - Jon Jones vs. Jake O'Brien

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