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By Adam Schwartzbard, MMATorch Specialist
Is there a more exciting division right now in MMA than the UFC Heavyweight Division? After watching UFC 110, I had to stop the Dream match up I was working on and focus on the stacked heavyweight division - and specifically the four man mini-tournament that I am "Dreaming" the UFC makes happen.
Instead of having the Mir-Carwin winner fight Lesnar upon his return, I am hoping the UFC has Lesnar face the red hot Cain Velasquez, with the winner taking on the Mir-Carwin winner to determine the undisputed Heavyweight Champion.
What are the chances the UFC does in fact go this route as opposed to giving the Mir-Carwin winner the first shot at the title, as Dana White has already indicated? And if this fight does happen, how will it be fought? Two-top level wrestlers often make for a stand up war. Will it be the case in this fight? We will examine all this and more in this Dream Fight for UFC Heavyweight Championship: Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez.
I, for one, think the UFC would be far better off having Lesnar fight Velasquez, with the winner taking on the Mir-Carwin winner. This would be a similar situation to the recent four-man "tournament" which featured the return of the then UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture facing Lesnar, with the winner fighting the winner of the Interim Title bout between Mir and Big Nog.
This time around, the returning UFC Heavyweight Champion is Lesnar and by having him face Velasquez first, followed by the unification bout with the Mir-Carwin winner, the UFC would maximize the intrigue within the division. As of now, Dana White has said this will not be the case unless the Mir-Carwin winner is unable to fight, but I believe the UFC will change that decision and make the four-man mini-tournament happen, and will give us a great fight between Lesnar and Velasquez.
The biggest x factor in this fight will simply be Lesnar’s health and the potential lingering effects the illness will have on him, not to menion his overall ring rust. This is the one aspect when analyzing this fight that is incredibly hard, if not impossible, to establish and determine how it will play out. Of course, we never know for sure how fights will play out, but we can intelligently analyze them based on strengths and weaknesses, previous fights and other factors. In this fight, however, Lesnar will be returning to the ring after an extremely long layoff, and he will also be returning from a devastating illness that caused him great physical deterioration. If is not the same fighter, he may not be able to handle Velasquez, who seems to get better with every fight.
Lesnar, if healthy, will be the larger and stronger man, something Velasquez himself has acknowledged as a major hurdle in this fight. He has vowed to outwork and outlast the larger Lesnar and take advantage of him later in the fight. We have seen Lesnar get winded, and it is an interesting strategy. In order for it to work, Velasquez would need to survive without incurring too much damage into the later rounds. Although it is possible, I actually think Velasquez's best chance to win this fight would be with his striking; I have mentioned in previous articles that we really have not seen Lesnar’s chin completely tested. As soon as Mir hit him at UFC 100 with the flying knee, he quickly took Mir down and was able to recover. If Velasquez is able to strike with Lesnar, he may have a chance to knock him out, similar to what he just did to Big Nog.
The strategy for Lesnar to win this fight would be the same for him in almost every fight: take down his opponent, use his superior strength to control him on the ground, and eventually pound him out.
Velasquez is an excellent wrestler himself and would pose all sorts of problems for Lesnar. He will not go down easily, and once he is down I don’t think he will be easy to control and keep there. He has excellent technique and is a strong enough guy to make Lesnar work extremely hard to keep him on the ground. Because they are both great wrestlers, that aspect of the fight can be neutralized, making this more of a stand up war, which would be an advantage to Velasquez. Overall, for Lesnar to win this fight, he will need to utilize his superior strength to control Velasquez and try to finish the fight in the first couple of rounds.
Dream Fight Prediction: This has the chance to be an epic heavyweight battle, and it's one that could go both ways. Assuming Lesnar is completely healthy when this fight takes place, I am picking him to win this fight via ground and pound. I think he will be able to use his superior strength to control the fight and eventually pound Velasquez out. It will not be the last we hear from hear Velasquez, and I would not be surprised if he eventually does win the UFC Heavyweight Championship, I just do not think it his time right now.
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