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By Sam Matthew, MMATorch Specialist
With Mixed Martial Arts exploding onto the international sports scene, all aspects of the game from fantasy predictions to betting are now becoming just as popular as enjoying the actual spectacle itself. In fact, many fans are beginning to realize that participating in these ‘mini-games' makes the fights themselves even more enjoyable.
The thrill of successfully predicting the outcome of a fight and watching your rank climb that much higher makes you feel like a part of the action. You may even lose friends when they see you anxiously sitting on the edge of your seat when that fourth minute rolls around and your pick has some schmuck in his rubber guard threatening with a submission, and you're up on your feet screaming, "Finish him! FINISH HIM!"
Indeed, the world of fantasy predictions can create an almost hostile atmosphere of devotion that forces those only moderately interested to cringe and back away slowly.
The purpose of this weekly column is to provide an in-depth look at the world of successfully predicting the outcome of a fight. MMATorch provides its own unique prediction game that anyone can participate in. Since it is so simple and easy to play without having to signup for an account, I would recommend this to everyone.
Explained more in-depth on Matt Pelkey's column "Predictions and Betting Contests" you basically pick the fighter you think will win, the method of victory, and the round he will accomplish this. The UFC website fantasy.ufc.com provides a slightly more advanced game played by approximately 20,000 people worldwide for every particular event.
This version is essentially the same except they add an extra dynamic in that you must also successfully predict the winning minute of a particular round, which is by far the hardest thing to do. UFC's fantasy game also awards points for predicting the method, round or minute correctly even if your fighter loses. Another important factor is being awarded bonus points for predicting all options correctly.
Based on this scoring format one of the most successful ways to play is by identifying the experienced wrestlers who regularly grind out unanimous decisions because choosing this method of victory answers both the round and minute questions automatically to win the maximum amount of points. Though a free account is necessary for this game, it is easily worth it because of the prizes awarded to winners and the extra dynamic of being able to join a league.
In order to be successful at fantasy predictions it helps to know the fighters in question and how their styles match up against each other. But even if you're unfamiliar with some fighters don't let that dissuade you from making any picks. Do some research on websites like YouTube.com and actually watch some fights to glean individual styles. Sherdog.com also has a very comprehensive list of fighters that you can easily search by name and find particular competitors' records, opponents faced, and even the round, minute and method of their win or loss.
These are good places to get started, but just remember the most points come from picking the right fighter so also be sure and check the odds on particular fighters using online bookies like Bodog.com, Sportsbook.com, or MMAMoneyline.com to find out who the favorite is. Though this is not always the case, it is a good guideline for novices. If you simply picked the favorite for every fight in last weekends UFC 108 you would have a winning record of 8-2.
MAIN CARD PREDICTIONS
DIAZ VS. MAYNARD: This Saturday's upcoming UFC Fight Night main event between Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz is an interesting match up stylistically. Undefeated Maynard is known for being a super strong wrestler who usually ends very boring fights by staying on top of his opponents and grinding out unanimous decision victories. In the words of training partner Forrest Griffin, "Gray knows how to wrestle for MMA."
Unfortunately, his strength plays right into Cesar Gracie student Nate Diaz's specialty, nasty guillotine and triangle chokes from the bottom that have finished six of his eleven victories, including wins over Melvin Guillard and Kurt Pellegrino, himself no slouch on the ground.
This mutual respect for each others ground game could lead to an extended stand-up war in which case Diaz has a distinct reach advantage and likes to brawl just like his brother Nick. Conversely Gray should have improved his boxing considering the fact that many see his standup as being fundamentally weak. I personally think its unlikely Gray will allow the fight to stay standing very long though.
If Maynard can use his wrestling strength to outmuscle Diaz then he will eek out yet another unanimous decision victory. (Opinion – 70% chance of victory)
If Diaz can catch Maynard getting lazy then he will finish him early (2nd minute) with one of his signature chokes in the 2nd round. (Opinion – 30% chance of victory)
ESCUDERO VS. DUNHAM: Submission specialist Efrain Escudero takes on Xtreme Couture's Evan Dunham in a lightweight match up that will likely stay on the ground.
Undefeated Dunham is 9-0 and training with Couture gives him a solid wrestling base. This will likely be neutralized by an equally undefeated Escudero with nine of his twelve wins by way of submission. Again this could result in a striking battle but even after his recent TKO stoppage of Cole Miller, I think Escudero wants this one on the ground regardless of Dunham's 5 submission victories over lesser-known fighters.
If Escudero can take his opponents back then he will pull out a late (4th minute) choke in the 1st round. (Opinion – 75% chance of victory)
If Dunham can keep the fight standing and outgas his opponent then he has a strikers chance of a late (3rd minute) TKO stoppage in the 3rd round. (Opinion- 25 percent chance of victory)
SIMPSON VS. LAWLOR: Vicious striker Aaron Simpson takes on "The Filthy Mauler" Tom Lawlor in a middleweight bout that should produce fireworks for a possible Fight of the Night performance. Both fighters like to slug and that's what I'm expecting to see even though half of Lawlor's wins come from early choke submissions. Aaron Simpson is a favorite for good reason as all six of his wins have come early by KO or TKO stoppage.
If Simpson can connect with a couple solid punches then Lawlor will go down and stay down late (4th minute) in the 1st round. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)
If Lawlor can take Simpson to the ground and keep him there then he can win a late (5th minute) choke submission in the 1st round. (Opinion – 35% chance of victory)
SADOLLAH VS. BLACKBURN: Fan favorite and TUF Veteran Amir Sadollah takes on Brad Blackburn in a fight that hopefully stays on its feet. Regardless of his recent win over former body-builder Phil Baroni, I doubt Sadollah wants any of the more experienced "Bad" Brads power, and I think he looks for an early takedown to control the fight from top position. The fact that Sadollah also has home field advantage can mean the difference so I give him a slight edge even though Blackburn has a lot more experience.
If Blackburn can keep the fight standing then he drops Amir late (4th minute) for a 1st round TKO stoppage similar to Sadollah's loss to Johny Hendricks. (Opinion 45% chance of victory)
If Amir can get Brad to the mat then he will frustrate his opponent and grind out a unanimous decision victory. (Opinion 55% chance of victory)
PRELIMINARY PREDICTIONS
LEBON VS. SILVA: In another possible Fight of the Night, Chris "The Crippler" Leben takes on dangerous striker Jay Silva. Unfortunately for Silva his punching power plays right into Leben's strength, as The Crippler is legendary for his ability to take a punch and dish it right back. Even when losing late, Leben has responded to serious punishment by KO'ing the likes of Jorge Santiago and Terry Martin, both of whom were ahead on the score cards.
If Leben can stick to his usual gameplan of being a punching bag and letting his opponent wear himself out then he will score a late (4th minute) KO of Silva in the third round. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)
If Silva can take advantage of Leben's weak ground game and get on top, then he can grind out a unanimous decision victory. (Opinion - 40% chance of victory)
TAVARES VS. LENTZ: UFC Veteran Thiago Tavares takes on a well-rounded Nik Lentz in a lightweight match that will likely end up on the mat. Tavares has a very developed ground game with 10 of his 14 wins coming by way of submission, while Nik is no stranger to the ground with his most recent win over Rafaello Oliveira coming by way of a unanimous decision.
If Tavares can take him down and control from the top then he pulls out a late (4th minute) submission in the 3rd round. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)
If "The Carnie" can out-strike his opponent standing and get back to his feet when taken down then he wins a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)
DOS ANJOS VS. BRADLEY: Submission specialist Rafael Dos Anjos takes on powerful Kyle Bradley in a very evenly matched fight.
If Dos Anjos can take the fight to the ground then he will pull off an early (2nd minute) submission in the 2nd round. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)
If Bradley can keep his opponent at the end of his range then he pulls off a late (3rd minute) TKO in the 3rd round. (Opinion – 55% chance of victory)
CATONE VS. FORBES: Coming off a two-fight losing streak, Nick Catone looks to beat Jesse Forbes, taking the fight on short notice to replace an injured Steve Steinbess. Catone wants this win bad and has showcased some great takedown skills before being submitted by Tim Credeur. Forbes' weakness in the past has been his wrestling as seen by a loss to Matt Hamill and his cardio is certainly in question considering his limited time to prepare.
If Catone can take Forbes down and keep him down then he wins a unanimous decision victory. (Opinion – 75% chance of victory)
If Forbes can land some solid punches on Catone then he picks up a late (3rd minute) TKO in the 3rd round. (Opinion – 25% chance of victory)
STORY VS. LENNOX: Rick Story takes on Jesse Lennox in a welterweight matchup that I see as a tossup. Both fighters are young and hungry with similar records and I'm expecting them to go at it whether it stays standing or ends up on the canvas. (Opinion – 50/50)
GUYMON VS. MACDONALD: King of the Cage veterans Mike Guymon and Rory MacDonald will meet in the UFC in another fight I see as a tossup. Both fighters have very similar records with all of their wins by way of TKO or Submission. (Opinion – 50/50)
PREDICTIONS
Fight of the Night Prediction: Chris Leben v. Jay Silva
Knockout of the Night Prediction: Chris Leben
Submission of the Night Prediction: Nate Diaz
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