FACEBOOK TWITTER RSS APP PODCAST Opinion & Analysis : Roundtables ROUNDTABLE (pt. 2 of 2): UFC 116 predictions for Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin main event - Perez, Carter, Hyden, Williams, Shelby, DeBar, Matthew and Penick

Jul 3, 2010 - 11:30:21 AM

Predict the outcome of the UFC 116 main event between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. Who wins and how does the fight play out?

ANWAR PEREZ, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

This fight between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin is going to be a huge milestone for the UFC, both in notoriety and business. The buys alone will go through the roof and this will truly determine who the top heavyweight in the world is. I see Lesnar coming out and not letting up on Carwin. Carwin may give Lesnar trouble early on, but look for Lesnar to use his superior wrestling and pound Carwin out in an exciting fight. Lesnar via TKO in the second round.

ALVIN CARTER, MMATORCH SPECIALIST

Before seeing how prepared Brock Lesnar is for this fight, I would have told you Shane Carwin would get a late first round/early second round knockout. Now, I think Brock Lesnar might take this one down to the mat and ground and pound Carwin to a TKO stoppage in the second or third round.

It is really tough to call because they are pretty much the same guy (give or take a few wrestling credentials). Carwin's known for knocking guys out in the first round, but what will happen if this gets in to the second round? Actually, the bigger question is does Carwin have the gas tank for the Championship rounds? This is where I see Lesnar's win coming. If he can keep his hands up and chin tucked for a round or two, he should be able to keep his belt.

FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Well, I won't be surprised if Brock Lesnar wins, but I'm going with Shane Carwin. I think the night ends with Brock flat on his back staring at the lights. Carwin has never faced anybody like Brock, that's for sure. However, Brock has damn sure never faced anybody like Carwin either.

I've been more impressed with Shane Carwin's wins in the UFC than I have with Brock Lesnar's wins in the UFC. Brock looked good against Frank Mir, but Carwin looked spectacular in his beatdown of Mir. Brock looked okay against Randy Couture, but Randy was 45 freaking years old at the time. Not exactly the most impressive thing I've ever seen. Brock also had to decision Heath Herring. Every single one of Shane Carwin's fights have been won in the first round in spectacular fashion.

I think Brock is going to try to stand with Carwin, at least initially. The problem is that he'll get knocked out because of that. Brock is a powerful man, but Shane Carwin is an even more powerful puncher. I'll be surprised if the fight gets out of the first round. If Brock can get Carwin down, and lay on top of him, he might be able to pull out the win. That's a big if, though. Carwin is a pretty good wrestler, not as good as Brock, but still good. In the end, I think Shane Carwin will knock the hell out of Brock Lesnar in the first round.

ALEX WILLIAMS, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

This is close to a toss-up fight, but if pressed, I'll take Brock Lesnar. Standing, Carwin may hit a tad harder, but he has been rocked before, most notably by Gabriel Gonzaga. While Lesnar has never faced a devastating striker, he has eaten a flying knee from Frank Mir and punches from Randy Couture without taking a backward step.

In terms of grappling, both men will fight to keep off their backs, but Lesnar has the better wrestling pedigree. Carwin purports to be a better athlete than Lesnar. However, when one compares their NFL combine numbers, Lesnar ran the 40 yard dash quicker, jumped higher, and benched 225 pounds more times than Carwin.

If the bout stays standing, Lesnar has the edge. If it turns into a wrestling match, Lesnar has the edge. Advantage Lesnar.

TOBEN SHELBY, MMATORCH AUDIO CO-HOST

I favor Brock Lesnar over Shane Carwin, but this is certainly one of those fights where I wouldn’t be surprised to see either man win. Lesnar likely has the advantage in the wrestling department and I think we’ll see him try and take the fight to the ground as soon as possible.

I favor Carwin standing and I’d be surprised if Lesnar engages in the standup for any extended amount of time. Carwin also has a wrestling background, so I guess we’ll see if Lesnar’s claims of superior credentials are true or not.

The size issue is also pretty interesting – obviously both men are huge – and I’m not sure either will be able to bully the other around in the way they’ve done in the past to other opponents. I think this will also be the fight to see Lesnar’s chin really tested and get an idea of how he handles such big adversity.

If Lesnar can’t control the fight on the ground, he’s in trouble. I think he can and I’m picking him by ground and pound in round two or three.

CORY DEBAR, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

What an exciting fight this Saturday. I believe that these two are very well matched, however I will give the edge to Lesnar. I hope to see both of these heavyweights go into some later rounds. Lesnar is so athletic for his size with incredible wrestling skills. I realize Carwin is also a wrestler in his own right, but I don’t believe he is on the same level as the current champ Lesnar. I think this will prove to be the difference in this fight with Lesnar ground and pounding his way to a 3rd round TKO.

SAM MATTHEW, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

What a tough fight to call. At first thought, the size difference had me favoring Brock Lesnar for a 2nd or 3rd round TKO, but the more I consider Carwin’s MMA experience and striking advantage, I really like his chances. In fact, after weigh-ins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the betting lines even out more so with a lot of late action going to Carwin once people see just how close the two are in bulk.

A major factor could be Lesnar announcing he will be fighting southpaw, a stance that favors his wrestling and seems to suggest he’d rather grapple with Carwin than stand. Of course, this could all be deception and we could see Lesnar attempt to use his height and reach advantage with long but strong straight punches that are likely better than we’ve ever seen considering his boxing training with legendary Peter Welch.

In fact, the more I think about it, the less likely it seems for Brock to want to shoot in on a shorter Carwin. This would be closing the distance for his opponent’s benefit where Carwin’s brutal short punches can do their worst, in particular that nasty uppercut that Brock would be asking for when shooting in or even from the clinch. I’m hoping Carwin goes in to this fight with his hands high, throwing leg kicks from a distance to chop away the big man’s base, maybe paw out a couple punches to setup his own takedown and see how the giant fights off his back because Brock also possesses fearsome striking power.

Lesnar would do well to throw knees in the clinch on his shorter adversary but avoid takedowns while looking for his own. Another factor a lot of people are chalking up in favor of Brock is his media-savvy having headlined so many WWE and PPV events, but Carwin hasn’t shown any nerves yet. And there’s still a huge difference between professional fighting, and pre-determined wrestling/entertainment exhibitions, and that is simply being hit in the face.

We’ve seen Carwin get hit and even wobbled, but not dropped. With only a couple fights under his belt we can’t say the same for Brock, so for me, the big question is the champions chin. Man what a tough fight to call, Carwin by 2nd round TKO.

JAMIE PENICK, MMATORCH EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

How you view this fight comes down to what you feel about the skills of each of these fighters. Lesnar represents one of the most unbelievably athletic 265 lb. men on the planet. His wrestling background is excellent, his hands are underrated and the level of technique he brings to his fights is largely under-appreciated, if it gets recognized at all.

Carwin, meanwhile, possesses the big right hand capable of taking any of his opponents out.

I see Carwin having one way to win this fight, and that's by connecting on enough shots to put Lesnar out. Meanwhile, I think Lesnar has a lot of ways that he can win this fight. He's absolutely got power enough to rock Carwin. Gabriel Gonzaga rocked Carwin. Lesnar's got the wrestling to take this fight to the ground, and his ground game is a lot better than most will give him credit for, and is much more intricate and complicated than "being a big guy that lays on people."

The finish I'd love to see, just to show the many haters Lesnar has that it's more than just size to what he brings as a fighter, is Lesnar getting the fight to the ground and finishing with an armbar. It's not going to happen, but it's an image that brings infinite amusement. Still, Lesnar's going to be the better athlete, and I think he's the better all around fighter despite having just five fights prior to this one. Lesnar holds onto his UFC Heavyweight Championship in a great fight that ends before the third round.

Lesnar by TKO in the second round.

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