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I'll take Nog's experience in this one over the 26 year old Cain Velasquez here. If it weren't for Nog's loss to Frank Mir, I think we'd see this not as an unfair lopsided fight, but a pretty sure thing. Noguiera has a lot of mileage, with a 32-5-1 record, but he's still younger than Randy Couture before his UFC debut, who debuted at age 35 in 1997, crazy as that sounds given how long his career has been. In MMA, though, we've learned wear and tear is more important than age, especially being knocked out.
If Velasquez wins - to a degree depending on how he does it - it will likely come across as a both sign of major, impressive step forward in his career and confirmation Nog has slowed down quite a bit. But I don't expect that to happen. What I do expect, though, is for Nogra to look like he's about to lose several times to the 7-1 Velasquez before he makes his comeback. Those who haven't seen many of his fights will think he's washed up until, that is, he wins.
I think for longtime Pride fans, they'll be rooting for Nog just because it increases the chance of a dream fight between Nog and Lesnar, who are amazingly merely 13 months apart in age.
LANE BRADFORD, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Cain Velasquez is a talented, talented MMA fighter. I believe he will have a successful future in this sport and possibly become the heavyweight champion. However, I think Nogueira is too tough for him to get by right now. In all my years of being an die hard MMA fan I have only seen Nogueira get destroyed once, and that was when he was severly ill with staph (Mir, feel free to be angry for me mentioning that). I could see Velasquez being outclassed on the feet and reverting to his bread and butter of wrestling. The only problem there is Nogueira's world calss jiu-jitsu. I see Nogueira submitting Velasquez in the 2nd round.
ADAM SCHWARTZBARD, MMATORCH SPECIALIST
I think this has the potential to be a very good fight, and one I am really looking forward to. This is a huge step up for Valasquez, and obviously his biggest test. For a while I thought he was going to win this fight, but I just have a feeling lately that he is going to get caught in a submission by Nogueira in the 2nd or 3rd round. An undefeated Velasquez waiting to challenge for the title would be more appealing, but I think he gets beat here, moving Nogueria a step closer to a title shot.
ALVIN BENJAMIN CARTER III, MMATORCH SPECILIST
Judging by his performances against wrestlers and sambo fighters, I am going to have to say Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will win via armbar in the middle of the second round. This is a hyper-specific prediction, but no matter how the win comes, I favor Big Nog because of his experience.
Cain Velasquez is definitely going to give Big Nog a difficult time, and he will have to go for the straight KO if he wants to beat the veteran. Six of Velasquez's seven consecutive victories have come by way of TKO (punches), and his ground and pound might be nullified by Big Nog's Jiu-Jitsu.
CORY DEBAR, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
The heavyweight bout between Noguiera and Velazquez is a very well matched battle that has title ramifications at stake. However, I am going with Big Nog in this one. Velasquez has a great takedown, but he will have to think twice before taking a Jiu Jitsu expert like Noguiera to the ground. As far as stand up is concerned, Velasquez may have the upper hand because of his power. It should be noted that Noguiera has been working with a guy by the name of Anderson Silva who has pretty good stand-up himself!
TOBEN SHELBY, MMATORCH AUDIO COHOST
This should be a good fight as it features two very talented heavyweights. Velasquez is still developing and hasn't been super-impressive with his striking yet. But his wrestling is top notch and he's used it to dominate in his past two fights. Nogueira has years of experience on Velasquez and likely has the best submission game of anyone Velasquez has faced. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Nogueira on his back for most of the fight only to snap off a submission victory. While this fight could go either way, I'm thinking we'll see Velasquez avoid the submission attempts and ride out a three round decision.
SHAWN ENNIS, MMATORCH SENIOR COLUMNIST
This is a very tough fight to pick. On the surface, the story of this match will be told on the ground, with each man in his element. Valaesquez has nasty ground and pound and is normally able to take the fight where he wants it, which includes implementing his suffocating top game. At the same time, there is no one in the Heavyweight Division who is more dangerous than Nogueira off his back (Frank Mir is close).
Nogueira is able to absorb a beating, which is something everyone knows at this point. The question is whether he can weather a beating from Valasquez long enough to pull off a submission, especially with Valasquez's improved submission defense.
If the fight stays on the feet for any amount of time, Nogueira will be the more technical boxer with Valasquez holding the raw power advantage. I think this fight will be a lot of fun to watch, and I've got Nogueira taking it by third round submission. I'll admit, though, that this pick is a complete shot in the dark. It could end at any time in any way, or it could go the distance. Should be a good one.
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