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Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's been in a lot of wars; he's been through a lot. However, I think he still has enough in the tank to beat Cain Velasquez. I just don't think that Cain has what it takes to beat Nogueira at this point. In another year or two, it'd be a different story, but Cain's only had seven fights in his career. Experience counts for a lot, and Nogueira has many times the fighting experience as Velasquez.
Cain will control the wrestling aspect, but Nogueira won't be afraid to fight off his back. Cain will look to ground-and-pound his way to victory, but it only takes one mistake. It's just not Cain's time, not yet. He's the future, but Nogueira is the present. Prediction: Nogueira by Submission in the 2nd round.
JASON AMADI, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
This is a big fight with immediate title implications, and I'm very excited to see this fight. Cain Valasquez has been built up and groomed by the UFC to be a top contender and he hasn't disappointed in the slightest. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira has spent the majority of his career as one of the top heavyweights in the world, and is now a legend known for taking punishment and pulling out victories from the jaws of defeat. It doesn't get much better than that.
On paper, Nogueira may have taken too much damage during his career, but the truth is, there wasn't a point where he couldn't take it. The Frank Mir fight where he was barely healthy enough to walk out to the cage is the only time he's been stopped in his entire career, and if you follow the career of "Minotauro," you know that's an incredible statement.
The one knock on Cain Valasquez is that he doesn't have the power in his hands to render his opponent unconscious, something that no one has ever done to Nogueira. That is what puts Valasquez in serious danger here. His thing is, he overwhelms opponents with strikes on the feet and on the ground to TKO finishes.
Well, Noguiera has made a career of absorbing strikes from people who hit much harder, so I have no reason to believe he'll wilt here. He'll likely outlast any flurry Cain can muster, and catch Cain in a spectacular submission. I'm predicting a submission in the 2nd round for Nogueira.
LARAMEY LEET, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is coming off his classic match-up with Randy Couture. Velasquez will be putting his undefeated record on the line and facing his toughest opponent yet. Nogueira is known for out hearting his opponents and his ground game for a heavyweight along with some good boxing skills. Cain on the other hand is known for his relentless wrestling and control over the entire fight... oh, and some amazing stoppages on his record.
The big question is, "Does Cain take down Nog knowing he can be caught at any moment?" I think it might come down to who has the superior stand-up. I have to give the edge in the department to Velasquez even though Nog has the experience. (I just think that Cain wants it more.) We have only seen Cain rocked against Kongo and he recuperated very strong and got the takedown and everyone knows Nog has a granite chin. I think Cain's wrestling ability will be the biggest factor. I see the fight going all three rounds and Cain Velasquez winning a unanimous decision.
ANWAR PEREZ, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
The plain and simple truth is that this fight has title implications and either fighter would get the next shot after whoever wins between Shane Carwin and Frank Mir faces Brock Lesnar.
Velasquez has been hyped for having a stellar wrestling game, plus an ever improving striking game. Nogueira is coming off of one of the biggest wins in his career, against Randy Couture. That was easily a top five fight of the year for 2009, and Nogueira in that fight seemed like the old war horse that dominated Pride.
This is a better matchup for Nogueira as he has not only the experience, but the ground game to nullify Velazquez's wrestling, no matter how good it is. On the feet, Velasquez has an improving striking game, but Nogueira has a solid boxing style that can hurt when landing solid shots. I see Nogueira taking this one via decision and withstanding a willing and able young gun in Velasquez, but in the end it'll be Nogueira headed to a title shot.
BJORN HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Nog looked rejuvenated in his last fight, and I think we'll see his thirty-eight fight experience work to his advantage against the very green, yet quick and agile, Cain Velasquez.
Although Cain's speed will present a problem for the aging Pride legend, (hell, maybe for all of the Pride legends being featured that night), I see Nog as the more technically sound with his hands. If Cain decides to stand and trade with Nog, I think it's only a matter of time before we start asking ourselves just how solid Cain's chin is again.
Consequently, I expect to see Cain use his bread 'n' butter top game to control Nogueira for most of the fight. Nog can exploit this opportunity through patience and physical resolve to find a flicker of defensive vulnerability and capitalize with an arm-bar or ankle-lock.
Winner Big Nog by submission third round.
ALEX WILLIAMS, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
If there was no Fedor, we would talk more about how amazing Nogueira's run at or near the top of the Heavyweight Division has been. But even chalking the Mir loss up to a knee injury and a staph infection, it's been clear the last couple of years that he is not as good as he once was. Velasquez is a bad match-up for a 2010 Minotauro. Hell, he's a bad match-up for most elite heavyweights. His wrestling and non-stop ground-and-pound will overwhelm Minotauro. Nogueira's legendary toughness may help him last the distance, but don't be surprised to see Velasquez stop him late. Either way, Velasquez makes it look much easier than it should.
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