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ROUNDTABLE: On Andrei Arlovski and Frank Mir into UFC 191, with predictions on co-main event bout
Sep 4, 2015 - 2:40:07 PM ROUNDTABLE: On Andrei Arlovski and Frank Mir into UFC 191, with predictions on co-main event bout

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What are your thoughts on the resurgence of Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski into their co-main event at UFC 191, and how they're potentially going to be in title contention once again? Also, who wins that fight, and how?


MICHAEL BANE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

This was almost something that was a fun fight 10 years ago, and it's surprisingly relevant today. I'll be the first to admit I wrote these two off as finished a while ago. Their resurgence has been brought on partially by getting better, partially by the lack of depth in the heavyweight division, and largely by a few well-placed fists to the head.

Let's start off with Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski looked as glass-jawed as the infamous Glass Joe of "Punch Out" fame back in 2011. Losing to Fedor Emelianeko when The Last Emperor was still heavyweight king is one thing, and completely understandable; but sandwiching a lackluster decision loss to Antonio Silva between two vicious knockout losses that barely totaled three minutes of cage time made the "Pit Bull" (meaning Arlovski, not Alves, Feire, the other Feire, or the hardly scary Correia) look like he was sticking around past his expiration date.

After washing out of Strikeforce, Arlovski managed to gain some momentum by beating up a bunch of has-beens or never-gonna-bes (Travis Fulton, anyone) and then made some noise in the World Series of Fighting. Despite getting his jaw broken by Anthony Johnson in a loss, the UFC still came calling when they needed a body because a) Arlovski looks big and scary, b) He has some name recognition, and c) Those two things along make him more interesting and marketable than 99.9% of all heavyweights in the world right now. All things being equal, I'll take the cool looking, muscle bound guy with fading talent over the slow, every-man looking no-talents in that division.

Then the unthinkable happened. Arlovski won (lost) a fight with Brendan Schaub. Okay, I suppose that's not completely unbelievable. He then knocked out a No-TRT Bigfoot Silva (the only guy who actually seems to legitimately need it). Actually, that's not really surprising either. But that's when the crazy started. Arlovski's fight vs. Travis Browne was one of the craziest, edge-of-your-seat, one round fights I've ever seen. Brown may not be the Greatest of All Time, but in a heavyweight pool that's about ankle-deep, he's as top talent. Be it luck or timing or whatever, there's not many real interesting contenders at this weight class, and there's a case to be made that Arlovski is as deserving as anyone of a title shot at the moment.

What I'm not buying is Frank Mir's resurgence. Mir is a smart guy. He's a great talker and can sell a fight well. His ground game is legendary when it comes to heavyweight submission artists. The fact he still has a competitive career in the UFC after his horrible motorcycle accident is a testament both to his resilience and hard work. His own four fight losing streak recently came to an end with stoppages over Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee. This is the same Antonio Silva that barely qualifies as a victory for Arlovski, and he was one more fight removed from TRT than when he took on the Pit Bull (again, Arlovski, not any of the other 200 fighters who chose their nickname after listening to International Love).

The second of his two consecutive victories came against Todd Duffee, a guy who had to take two years off due to a rare nerve disease and whose signature victory was a seven second knock out against Tim Hague in 2009. He was trumped up as a potential future title contender for some time because kicking Tim Hague's ass is about all it takes anymore in the talent-devoid heavyweight division we currently have, even if you take two years off.

This is why I'm just not seeing Mir as a contender. He beat a guy that desperately needs TRT for a medical condition and then beat another guy who hasn't done anything and probably shouldn't be fighting because of a medical condition. It's two wins, against lacking competition. While you can argue Arlovski's recent resume is hardly much better, I would counter that his streak is twice as long, and he actually beat a top talent in his last go.

Duffee fight aside, Mir tends to start out slow. One of the dangers of being a smart fighter is the danger to overthink, and Mir is one of the most guilty of this I've ever seen. Mir hits hard, and he managed to catch a charging and reckless Duffee to put him on the ground. Arlovski is not going to be so careless, as the Greg Jackson trained fighter has improved his fight IQ more than anything in recent years. Mir holds the edge on the ground, but Arlovski's striking is good enough that Mir's more likely to involuntarily end up there, unconscious, than he is to take the Pit Bull (Arlovski, not Mr. Worldwide), down. Arlovski, by KO in the second. Give him the title shot already.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

It's a great story, obviously, but it also speaks to them as fighters. They were thrown on the scrap heap. I thought they were done. Mir especially has reinvented himself. He's still just as dangerous on the ground, but the added element of his striking makes him a much better fighter. He's quickly shown that he'll finish an opponent anywhere. As for Arlovski, I don't know if it was just bad luck or what the deal was, but he's back and I'm loving it because he was one of my original favorites from the older days. I'm picking Arlovski to win by TKO in the first round, but I think Mir has a very good chance to win as well. It's not a 50/50 fight, but I'd say it's a 55/45 fight at the most. I give Arlovski the edge because he's shown a little more in the striking department, but somebody is going out in this fight and it could easily be Arlovski. I expect a tremendously exciting fight and this is a great co-main event.


BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

I love the resurgence of Arlovski in a big way, he was an exciting champion whom the people loved; Mir doesn't excite me as much, but I do keep counting him out and getting proven wrong. I've basically done this every time he's won a fight in the last 3 years - I presume he's done then he blasts back into the picture. It's a great thing for a division lacking a lot of entertaining and credible fighters, or those who are on the very short list for a title shot. I believe that Arlovski will win this fight, likely via knockout in the second round, but I anticipate we see a lot of trouble from Mir on the ground in the first - we can't forget that Arlovski has a great ground game. Arlovski wins this one then fights the winner of Werdum and Velasquez or a hopefully debuting Fedor.


CASH NORMAN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

"Don't call it a comeback, I've been here for years; rockin' my peers and puttin' suckas in fear...explosion, overpowerin'
Over the competition, I'm towerin'... I'm gonna knock you out."

This may have worked for LL Cool J, but I'm not quite sure you can call it a resurgence for Frank Mir, nor Andrei Arlovski. Many people like to throw these words around, especially when it pertains to their favorite fighter or someone they're nostalgic about, but I think it's premature and unwarranted.

If we take a look at Mir's losses versus his wins, you'll see he suffered four straight losses against top level competition in JDS, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett, and Alistair Overeem; however his victories have been against a way past his prime Big Nog, an inconsistently consistent, chinny Bigfoot Silva, and Todd "Glass Chin" Duffee. Mir's victories have against mid level competition, and he was not in the best of shape for his last fight against Duffee.

Then if we look at Andrei Arlovski, his resume isn't that impressive either. He's most recently had a split decision victory over Brendan Scahub - who has shown to be chinny in the past - a KO over Bigfoot Silva, and the most notable victory against Travis Browne, who made a terrible decision to switch camps and train under Edmond Tarverdyn, the most overrated trainer in the world.

I wouldn't call it a comeback for either one. If either has to fight elite level competition they're going to get their asses handed to them.

Whomever wins this fight may be propelled into title contention, but realistically if Fabricio Werdum beats Cain Velasquez in the rematch, then the winner of the Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos will fight for the title. If Velasquez regains the title and Overeem manages to beat JDS; Velasquez vs Overeem will be your next heavyweight fight. Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski only have a shot of fighting for the championship if Velasquez regains the title and JDS wallops Overeem.

Even in the shallow heavyweight division they have to hope for a scenario in which Velasquez and JDS lose their upcoming fights. Don't call it a comeback.

As for the fight itself, I pick Arlovski by first round TKO.


RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

Subjectively, I love Frank Mir. Love him. He's the smartest guy in the sport, bar none. When he spends 15 minutes answering a question that most fighters would answer in five syllables or less, I'm completely down with that. I've been guilty of doing the same thing time and time again. He's analytical, brilliant, well-spoken, and absolutely not in the midst of some rebirth or whatever you want to call it. I love his style, I love his fights, I love his killer instinct, but he's not in the middle of a "resurgence" here.

Frank Mir lost four in a row, to Junior dos Santos, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett, and Alistair Overeem, and he was a massive underdog in all four of those fights. He won upsets against Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee, but for the life of me I don't know what the betting public was thinking. Frank Mir is the classic example of a guy who beats who he's supposed to beat, and can't beat guys who are clearly better than him (and yes, I realize that you could say "Nogueira" at me and smile smugly. You'd be a fool, since Nogueira in 2008 and 2011 is ever-so-slightly diminished from Nogueira of 2002, but whatever. Sit your smug ass down in the corner and pipe down. Pride is dead).

Better than Roy Nelson? Check. He won.

Better than 2011 Cro Cop? Check. He won.

Better than prime Shane Carwin? Nope. He lost.

Better than Cheick Kongo? Even the day after his motorcycle crash he's better than Kongo on his best day. He won.

Better than Brock Lesnar after Lesnar learned from their first fight? Not a chance. Lesnar killed him.

Better than Nogueira in 2008? This is the only possible outlier. Nog's next fight was his brilliant defeat of Randy Couture, but I'd argue that late-prime Frank Mir was better than an almost-cooked Nogueira.

Better than a 1-0 Brock Lesnar? Check. He won in 65 seconds.

Better than Antoni Hardonk? GTFO here. He won.

It's pointless to go further back than that because then you're talking about the Frank Mir who was still recuperating from his motorcycle accident, and that queers the calculus ever so slightly. It's readily apparent that hindsight is 20-20 with Mir. Historically speaking, he does what he's supposed to do. So, you'll pardon me if I deny that he's in the midst of a resurgence. He just loses to top-five guys and beats everyone else.

As to Arlovski, this is a motherf***ing resurgence, motherf***ers. After his four-fight losing streak that encompassed Affliction and Strikeforce, this guy was done. No shame in losing to Fedor Emelianenko, but then he got KO'd by Brett Rogers. He lost badly to Antonio Silva. He lost at his own game to Sergei Kharitonov (who will be UFC-bound as soon as Dana White promises him a title shot. So will I. Dana, call me.) and got KO'd badly. this guy was as done as it gets. He was so done that he was Jason f***ing Miller's sidekick on a Bully Beatdown episode. He was second banana to the worst person in the sport. That's d. o. n. e., people.

In his eight fights between Strikeforce and his UFC run, his two highest profile fights were Anthony Johnson and Tim Sylvia. And he couldn't beat either of them. His best win was Devin Cole. Somehow, the UFC brought him back, and then watched him go out and lay a Gobbledygooker sized egg against Brendan Schaub, somehow getting his hand raised in what was likely the worst fight of 2014. Confidence in him was so low that he was a sizable underdog to Antonio Silva. That KO win opened a couple of eyes, as this was a post-TRT Bigfoot. But then all doubts were removed watching his slobberknocker with Travis Browne. That's top-five ranked Travis Browne. Andrei Arlovski's career was dead and buried - as dead and buried as the UFC's third-party investigations of Anthony Johnson, Thiago Silva, and Travis Browne - but he persevered and returned to the top of the division he ruled more than a decade ago.

Come Saturday night, despite what you might think, I'm picking Frank Mir to beat Andrei Arlovski by TKO in the second round. I don't think Mir's in the midst of a "resurgence." I think he's consistently losing to fighters who are better than him, and he beats fighters he's supposed to beat. While Arlovski's resurgence has been fabulous, I think he'd be in Bellator right now if Travis Browne didn't fight the dumbest fight in the history of the UFC against him. I think Mir wins handily, and puts himself on the brink of a title shot. And if he does manage to wring out one more title shot at the end of the career, he's either going to be exposed as badly as the UFC's third-party investigation process, or he'll become champion one last time, in a fight that will go down as the biggest outlier of his career.


DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Though it doesn't speak well for the heavyweight division, I think their resurgence is a lot of fun. Everyone keeps mentioning that they should have fought back in 2005 for the title before Mir's motorcycle accident put that on ice, but they had actually been scheduled to fight as early as UFC 45 in 2003!

Arlovski will be on better ground if he can pull it out (which I fully expect) as his victory over Travis Browne carries more weight than any of the other opponents these two have faced. I can't say for sure he'd get the next shot ahead of JDS or Stipe Miocic if they emerge victorious in their upcoming fights, but I'd favor him to get the next shot. Hell, I'm expecting Cain Velasquez to pull up lame in his next fight with Werdum whenever that gets scheduled! As for Mir, he'd be behind JDS, Miocic (or Overeem or Rothwell obviously), and perhaps even behind Mark Hunt... depending on how Hunt looks against Bigfoot of course. Mir's four fight losing streak wasn't that long ago... as opposed to Arlovski's.

Oh yeah, Arlovski should find Mir's chin somewhere in the first round for a KO, as Mir's durability has never been a strength of his.


[Frank Mir art by Grant Gould (c) MMATorch.com]