Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE: How well will UFC 194 do on pay-per-view with Aldo-McGregor and Weidman-Rockhold
Aug 19, 2015 - 4:35:13 PM ROUNDTABLE: How well will UFC 194 do on pay-per-view with Aldo-McGregor and Weidman-Rockhold

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With Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor and Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold set for UFC 194, how well do you expect that card to perform on pay-per-view compared to the rest of 2015 and why (assuming both fights stay on as planned)?


MICHAEL BANE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

It's an easy call to say that this is going to do over a million buys, assuming that the UFC spends as much as they say they're going to on promotion. Even with the spending, that kind of number is pretty impressive when you consider it's headlined by the featherweight division. The top selling PPVs so far in 2015 have been UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia (900,000 buys), UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor (825,000), and UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier (800,000). While Jones is a light heavyweight fighter, these types of numbers show a shifting trend toward dominant, generational fighters, as opposed to just considering the heavyweights. In fact, perhaps the most shocking number of PPV buys this year is how few Velasquez vs. Werdum sold, with only 300,000 purchases.

Obviously there's a marketability component here. Demetrious Johnson and Cain Velasquez are and were, respectively, considered fighters who could clean out their divisions and possibly end up among the greatest ever to compete in their divisions. Unfortunately, Velaquez fights tend to be few and far between, and Johnson exhibits about as much personality as Keanu Reeves does when he "acts." Rousey is active, otherworldly dominant, and highly marketable with her activities outside the UFC. Jones was active, on his way to becoming the Greatest of All Time, and was widely recognized with his two national sports apparel endorsements. McGregor is the most entertaining and absurdly confident talker the sport has seen in recent times. In order to be a top sell, the numbers are showing us you've got to have both the performance and the recognition factors.

UFC 194 should end up being the top selling PPV of the year. If McGregor can get 850,000 buys with a short notice opponent, topping a million should be no problem for a "Champion vs. Champion" event that is properly promoted. One of the factors I'm not taking into account is the Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold co-main event. Weidman headlined PPVs have done historically well, but I don't believe that he really has anything to do with it. UFC 175 had 545,000 purchases when Weidman fought Machida, but Rousey was co-main on the card. UFC 162 ended up with 550,000 purchases, but Anderson Silva was his opponent. UFC 168 went over a million, but Weidman was fighting Silva again AND Rousey was the co-main as well. Weidman seems to be a student of the Demetrious Johnson school of "people imitating trees" with his wooden personality, although I give him credit as he seems to try a lot harder. The middleweight championship might fetch a few more buyers from the hardcore fan contingent, but most of the people who want to see that fight were already ordering the card to watch McGregor and that other guy he's fighting. At the end of the day, this is going to be the Conor McGregor show, and he's going to carry it to the biggest buy rate of 2015.



RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

As long as McGregor stays on the card, and assuming the undercard stays in tact, there's enough precedent to expect this to do close to a million buys. Or, as Dana White will call it, the biggest selling f***ing pay-per-view in company history.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I think it does 1.1 million buys if both fights stay on the card. McGregor has proven that he's a big draw and he'll go against one of the most dominant champions in UFC history. This is also a bigger fight because McGregor beat Chad Mendes in his last fight, and that drew about 850,000 guys or so. And now McGregor has proven that he belongs in the title fight. That's bigtime stuff. On top of that, you have Weidman-Rockhold, which should also be a very exciting fight. This is one of the bigger cards the UFC has put on in a while. It doesn't happen all that often because all the variables have to line up, but this is one of those times. This is going to be huge.


BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

This card is going to bust through 1 million buys the way that Ronda Rousey busts through expectations. Aldo and McGregor is a heated rivalry that has failed to peak and when it does all eyes will be on it, and Rockhold vs Weidman is just a little salad on the side in case you weren't already sold on the importance of the card.


CASH NORMAN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

It's difficult because the UFC has a major fight scheduled right before Christmas.

The UFC is also stacking the card with the likes of Ronald "Jacare" Souza vs Yoel "No for Gay Jesus" Romero. It is my belief that the UFC is hoping Conor McGregor pulls in some casual fans, and by stacking the remainder of the card they can appeal to their hardcore audience as well.

It's tricky as the UFC is entering the 12 days of Christmas area, and I think they will lose some momentum due to the holidays. If it had been possible to debut this card in October, I think their draw would be better.

Overall, I think it does 500-600k PPV buys.


DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

The McGregor hype train should only continue to grow once The Ultimate Fighter starts rolling, as I'm sure he'll know what to say and do to not only keep eyes on him, but attract new eyes as well. Once that wraps up (maybe even before it does) he'll start throwing barbs at Jose Aldo in an effort to rile up the longtime champion. That alone should be enough to allow it to top UFC 189, but Weidman and Rockhold will add more intrigue heading into it than Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald did as Weidman and Rockhold will actually do something to promote their fight in addition to having a higher profile feel to it than the welterweights did. So I'm going to say that it will just barely exceed 1 million buys and send the UFC out with a bang for the year.