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Predict the outcomes for Shogun vs. Lil' Nog II, Struve vs. Big Nog, and Claudia Gadelha vs. Jessica Aguilar at UFC 190
MICHAEL BANE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
In 2005, Mauricio Rua beat Antonio Rogerio Noguiera in PRIDE, by decision, in what went on to be fight of the year. It was the quarterfinals of their Middleweight Grand Prix, and Rua had just soccer kicked the hell out of Rampage Jackson the month before. Noguiera was coming off his own impressive win, submitting Dan Henderson in the opening round of the same tournament. Shogun went on to win that particular tournament, but how things have changed in the following 10 years.
While this is still a rematch of a classic, the combined 5-11 record Rua and Noguiera hold in their last 16 fights makes this a bit more of a nostalgic novelty than a must-see, high-stakes affair. Noguiera has looked older recently (both the Nogs look older than their years due to hair-loss and MMA mileage) but outside of getting knocked silly by Anthony Johnson, he's been competitive. Rua, on the other hand, has looked glass-jawed and very immobile. It's hard to believe this is the same guy that last held the light heavyweight title before Jon Jones. My head says it's hard to pick Lil' Nog, but then my head says it's REALLY hard to pick Shogun. In a battle of old, no-chin-left fighters, I'll take Noguiera by knockout whenever he lands his first clean shot on Shogun. We'll go with the second round.
It's really hard not to feel bad for Stefan Struve. The Dutchman has faced some very scary health issues, and to add more worry to the mix is the seven knockouts he's suffered, many of the fairly brutal variety. It's hard to believe this kid is only 27, and it's concerning to see him continue taking hard shots to the dome. Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, on the other hand, has endured enough mileage over the course of his storied career that many are rooting for him to hang up the gloves. This could very well be Minotauro's last dance in the cage, as he's spoken openly of retiring recently. While Noguiera's bread and butter has always been his submission game, he's scored a few knockouts in the twilight of his career.
Struve has shown himself to be a pretty prolific finisher. In his 25 wins he's had 23 finishes (7 by knockout and 16 by submission). He also always seems to be just on the cusp of becoming a serious contender for the title. Although he stands 6'11", Struve hasn't always utilized his 84.5" reach as effectively as he should. Noguiera doesn't present as much of a challenge standing as many of Struve's previous opponents, and he has enough skills on the ground to avoid being submitted. Although it seems like one of these guys has to go lights out in this fight, it's Struve by decision, in a battle of two fighters who most of us would like to see call it quits.
Claudia Gadelha vs. Jessica Aguilar is a tough fight to pick. These very easily could be the second and third best fighters in the world in the Women's Strawweight division. Gadelha has only lost once in her career, a somewhat debatable decision loss to the current champ. She's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, and has finished half of her 12 victories by submission. As a decently sized strawweight, she's seemingly starting to add some power to her game, as her last two finishes have come by way of TKO. Aguilar was the reigning strawweight champ in the World Series of Fighting when she was released. She also hasn't lost a fight in almost five years, and holds a victory over the former UFC Strawweight Champ Carla Esparza. She's wasting no time jumping into the deep end by fighting Gadelha, and a win for her could set up a quasi champion vs. champion bout against Joanna Jędrzejczyk.
While holds the edge in experience, Gadelha has shown no real weakness in the Octagon as of yet. Combined with her size and relative youth to the former WSOF champ, she's going to have the edge in strength if the fight goes to the floor. While Aguilar is no slouch in the BJJ department (she holds a brown belt), Gadelha appears to be one of the premier talents in that area in her division. Gadelha isn't great on her feet, but Aguilar is no Joanna Champion either in the striking department. Gadelha will try to take her to the ground, and will do damage in the clinch if she can't. Gadelha by decision to set up a rematch for the Strawweight Title.
DAN MOORE, MMATORCH UK COLUMNIST
Claudia Gadelha vs. Jessica Aguilar is the fight I want to see most this weekend. Aguilar is widely regarded as one of the very best in the division but this is some test for her as a debut fight. Only a fight against Jedrzejczyk in Poland would be considered tougher. I expect her to win based on her resilience and superior stamina, but it's going to be an extremely close competitive fight and Gadelha could easily pull of the win herself.
If Stefan Struve has finally figured out how to use his considerable size and reach advantage, he should have enough about him to keep the fight standing and pick apart Big Nog for three rounds. Shogun vs. Lil' Nog is very hit and miss in terms of trying to predict a winner. Logic suggests Nogueira will avenge his loss from the superb PRIDE fight ten years ago, but even a spent Shogun is capable of ending a fight against someone as equally spent as Lil' Nog.
FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
I think Lil' Nog beats Shogun by decision. Both guys have slowed considerably but I still expect this fight to be tense and a nice throwback to their earlier days. I have to go with Struve because if he loses to Big Nog, he needs to just retire. Nogueira has taken so much damage over his long career that he should lose to any fighter worth their salt. I love Nogueira, but there's a point where you fall off, and he passed that point a long while back. I'm going with Struve by TKO in the second round. The Gadelha-Aguilar fight is the one I'm most interested in of these three. I'm going with Gadelha by submission in the second round. I think there's a chance that Aguilar wins by her usual grinding decision, but I think Gadelha comes through with a big victory to stake her claim for a title shot against UFC Women's Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
The proper title for this pay-per-view (if they did title them) would be "Ronda Rousey and the Senior Circuit" as her supporting cast on this card consists of a majority of fighters well past their prime.
Even though I agree with the matchmaking, I don't care to see Shogun and Lil' Nog go at it as the longest one of them lasted in their last fight was 44 seconds. Does that sound like an intriguing fight to anyone? Shogun has shown more flashes of his glory days than Lil' Nog and hasn't had the same injury issues, so I'll say Shogun puts Lil' Nog out at some point... maybe the second round.
Big Nog is also a shell of himself. His indestructibility used to be his greatest asset, but now he seems so fragile. Fortunately for him his opponent is also made of glass. Struve may only be 27, but he has been fighting for over a decade and taken some seriously devastating shots over the course of his career. Remember the Superman punch from Travis Browne or the uppercut from Mark Hunt? Still, I don't know if Big Nog has the skills to finish him anymore. Struve should outpoint him in a decision thanks to his length.
As for Gadelha and Aguilar, this is actually a relevant fight. This will probably be a fairly ugly fight as both excel in long drawn out affairs. Then again it could turn into a brawl if neither can implement their grinding style. I favor Gadelha as she is strong as an ox at the weight class and that gives her the edge in my book.
[Shogun Rua art by Grant Gould (c) MMATorch.com]
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