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How would you book out the top end of the UFC's heavyweight division following Fabricio Werdum's title win? Who should he face next, and why? Who should Cain Velasquez face next? How would you book out the other top contenders left out of the title bout?
RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
There are four fighters in the running for the first shot at Fabricio's title (alphabetically): Andrei Arlovskli, Junior dos Santos, Stipe Miocic, and Cain Velasquez. While some people are calling for Miocic to get the first shot, he's the easiest to eliminate from the conversation. Miocic's best win is over Mark Hunt, he has a (close) loss to Junior dos Santos, and those two fights are the only two he's ever had against a fighter in the (current) top-ten. He might be good enough, but he hasn't earned the shot. He's not a phenom who has obvious generational talents, nor is he a guaranteed box office monster (is Brock Lesnar), so he's going to have to win at least once against someone in the pack of contenders before getting my consideration.
The next fighter I eliminate is Cain Velasquez. Not only was he awful against Werdum, but I don't think he was fighting at close to 100% health. He looked like a fighter who needed a couple more months to get into prime fighting shape. Also, even though this shouldn't be a legitimate consideration, does anyone really want to see him in another trilogy? If he fights, and beats, Werdum in an immediate rematch, would Werdum not be in consideration for a rematch as well? Heavyweight is actually interesting right now, and has a wealth of legitimate contenders (hence this Roundtable question). Let's not gum up the works when the division has finally gained some momentum.
This leaves Junior dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski to get the next shot. Both fighters have beaten Werdum, although both were in the dark ages of Werdum's career. Werdum's first UFC run was one marked with indifference, arrogance, and an extra 30 pounds. It's easy to dismiss both of those losses, but the fact remains that both dos Santos and Arlovski hold wins over the sitting champ.
Junior dos Santos has two UFC losses, both to Cain Velasquez. Arlovski has UFC losses, but none against the current cream of the crop at heavyweight. Arlovski actually seems fresher than dos Santos despite the fact that his first UFC fight was at UFC 28 in April 2000. Dos Santos is coming off of a "victory" over Stipe Miocic, but it was a performance that led me to remark that I'd be fine never seeing him fight again. He's just so... hittable. Arlovski, despite his lengthy tenure, is the fresher fighter with more momentum, and in my book he's getting the next shot at the championship.
Beyond that: Velasquez vs. Browne. Miocic vs. Barnett (after he beats Roy Nelson). Dos Santos vs. Overeem. After all those fights play out, then you can pick the best performance to fight against the winner of Werdum vs. Arlovski.
That said, JDS is getting the shot, probably winning, and then we're going to be stuck with JDS vs. Cain 4. Blechhh.
DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Last week I stated that Werdum's first title defense should be against Junior dos Santos due to Werdum getting sent out of the UFC by JDS back at UFC 90. The more I think about it the more I want to backtrack and give the shot to Andrei Arlovski. I do have logical reasons behind my change of heart. 1) Arlovski is riding a three fight winning streak in the UFC, with five wins in a row overall as opposed to dos Santos and Miocic having a single win since their last loss. 2) Werdum's UFC record is 8-2. One of those losses is to dos Santos and the other is to... Arlovski. Either one works out in terms of revenge which eliminates that argument. 3) Dos Santos was thoroughly dominated in his last two title fights, and one would think he needs a definitive win before he gets another shot. While he has a victory over Miocic since then, it was far from definitive. I myself scored it for Miocic, but that is neither here nor there. The point is that dos Santos doesn't have an impressive win. 4) Arlovki's comeback is easy to sell. 5) I get the feeling fans don't care to see dos Santos get another title shot... at least not yet. So Arlovski gets the first shot in my book.
Velasquez is far easier to match up. Travis Browne is about the only top contender coming off of a loss, and if he were able to get a victory over the former champion he is right back in the thick of things. A loss wouldn't hurt his stock much, if at all since, well, he'd be losing to Cain Velasquez. Though he would be heavily favored, it isn't a gimme for Velasquez. I can't think off anyone who doesn't want to see that.
The rest of the division is fairly easy to decipher. Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem have developed a rivalry over the last few years, yet a fight has never come to fruition. Ben Rothwell has done enough to earn a step up in competition and that leaves him to face Miocic.
FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Well, to be blunt, the division is so weak that you could make an argument for several guys. I would go with Junior dos Santos to get the next title shot because the only guy he's lost to in the last eight years is Cain Velasquez. Running down the UFC rankings, you can't go with Stipe Miocic because he got manhandled by JDS six months ago. Andrei Arlovski and Josh Barnett are maybe in there, but Barnett just lost to Travis Browne, who himself just lost to Arlovski, and also lost to Werdum a year ago. So, basically it comes down to either Arlovski or JDS. I'm an Arlovski fan so I would love to see him get a title shot, but I think JDS has a slightly stronger case. Either would make a good challenger, though. I would put Werdum vs. JDS and Arlovski vs. Miocic, and Arlovski gets a title shot if he wins.
As for Cain, I put him in there with Ben Rothwell. Cain has to earn his way back to a title shot so he has to start over. If Rothwell were to win, that gives him a huge win over a highly ranked guy.
BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Ok so here we go, I book Werdum against JDS, because JDS knocked the hell out of Werdum a few years ago and see how that pans out. I believe JDS can throw enough power to knock out Werdum again, setting up a possible fourth bout against Velasquez should the former Champ beat Stipe Miocic. Miocic has shown he can hang with the big boys, surviving a lot of punches from JDS, and now it's time to test the two-time former champion, while the winner gets the winner of the aforementioned title bout. Beyond that everything is basically up for grabs. Arlovski is in the title picture perhaps needing another win to solidify that and it should be against Ben Rothwell. And after Todd Duffee kills Frank Mir I feel we should see him face off with Mitrione or Browne. Everything else is up for grabs.
MICHAEL BANE, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
I was REALLY looking forward to a Velasquez vs. Arlovski fight. Either it was going to be this horrifying, yet exciting, train wreck of an event where a guy may almost gets beaten to death, or it was going to be another I-can't-believe-this-is-happening fight where Arlovski somehow pulls 2005 out of his ass and wins a fight no one expects him to be in. While my dreams may be dashed with Valasquez's loss, that doesn't change that I put Arlovski in a title fight.
Before even getting to Arlovski's credentials, a quick stroll through the lineup of the UFC's heavyweights shows completely weak arguments on why it should be anyone else. Junior dos Santos is just one fight removed from getting all manner of living hell beaten out of him by Velasquez, and his fight against Stipe Miocic was hardly a dominant victory. If anything, that competitive fight, where Miocic inflicted even more damage on a fighter who's been looking too tough for his own good, did more to raise Miocic's star as a top competitor than it did for JDS. Oh, and the argument that JDS has a victory over Werdum? It was 7 years ago. You know another fighter who Werdum could fight to avenge a loss? Andrei Arlovski.
Chael Sonnen (because things he says matter for some reason) stated Stipe Miocic should get the next title shot. Miocic's claim to such a bout are that he lost to JDS, but not too badly, and then beat up Mark Hunt. For the record, Mark Hunt's MMA career stands at 10-10(1). This actually may be Miocic's signature victory, depending on how you feel about Roy Nelson, Gabriel Gonzaga, and a 35 second KO over light heavyweight Fabricio Maldonado. Hardly a muderers' row there.
Based on Velazquez's two title defenses and 600ish days out of action, not to mention the decisive nature of his defeat, I don't give him an immediate rematch. Arlovski is coming off of four straight wins, more than any of the other sensible contenders, and his last fight was an exciting barn-burner that will almost assuredly win Round of the Year. Arlovski has some name recognition as a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, a good look, and there's a revenge story built right in with Werdum needing to avenge a loss. Also, you want to do this before someone touches Arlovski on the chin and you burn him as a heavyweight contender altogether. Schedule this fight, and let the rest of the heavyweight pool try to separate itself in the meantime while we ride Arlovski's momentum into the most unlikely championship fight to come along in forever.
As far as Cain himself, Travis Browne seems like a good option as he's a highly ranked heavyweight also coming off a loss. Cain isn't far from contention, and a win over Browne is about the best fight he can have at this moment that makes sense. A win for Browne elevates him considerably as well, about as much as anything would considering he recently lost to the new champ.
For the rest of the division, I'd have Miocic fight Rothwell while dos Santos and Overeem finally clash in a long overdue matchup. I imagine Overeem will find a way to duck JDS again, but in my hypothetical world I have supreme matchmaking power, and the winner of this has as great argument for a title shot. Sorry Miocic, assuming you beat Rothwell, the interest just isn't there like it would be for JDS or Overeem. You can go fight Cain after he pounds Browne through the Octagon.
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