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ROUNDTABLE: What chance does John Makdessi have to upset Donald Cerrone at UFC 187?
May 20, 2015 - 5:25:05 PM ROUNDTABLE: What chance does John Makdessi have to upset Donald Cerrone at UFC 187?

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What percent chance do you give John Makdessi to upset Donald Cerrone at UFC 187? If Cerrone wins, is he getting a UFC Lightweight Title shot next? Why or why not?


RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

I give John Makdessi exactly a negative-butt chance of beating Donald Cerrone on Saturday night. This is a paycheck fight for Cerrone, who claims to have somehow spent $20,000 on this training camp. Skoal and Budweiser must be damned expensive in Albuquerque. It's a wise choice for Cerrone, as he's getting a title shot with a win. His next training camp for a fight with champion Rafael dos Anjos had better cost him a heck of a lot more than his last dos Anjos camp cost him. And since he's losing $60,000 in Reebok money starting with his next fight, and since he's not cutting back on the Budweiser and Skoal, he'd better strike before he's in the red.

And one more thing... I propose that if Cerrone ever walks to the ring wearing a Reebok-branded cowboy hat that we start a petition drive banning him from ever being called "Cowboy" again. No real cowboy wears sponsored and branded Cowboy hats.


DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Can't I just say I don't give him much of a chance and leave it at that? If I have to go by a percent, I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of 15%, and that might be generous. I always have images of Matt Serra finishing GSP before giving odds so I don't want to play too generously in Cerrone's favor.

I see no reason why Cerrone won't get a title shot if he wins. Eight wins in a row is very impressive, impressive enough that no one hasn't fought for the title while going for their ninth win in such a streak. He has beaten some good names during that time, too, as Benson Henderson was the Lightweight Champion less than two years ago, and Eddie Alvarez was the Bellator Champion in a similar time frame. Cerrone is a highly marketable fighter as well, and the only other fighter who deserves a chance is the shelved Nurmagomedov. The UFC learned its lesson (I hope) about not keeping a division moving when the lightweight division was on hold while Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez filmed TUF, and I don't see them waiting for him to come back... especially when he now has a rivalry built in with an also injured Pettis.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Well, Makdessi's got a decent shot, of course. I fully expect Cerrone to win, but Makdessi has the ability to stop him. I'd probably give Makdessi about a 25% chance for victory. Maybe bump that up to 33% or so, but Cerrone should definitely win. And if he does win, he should get a Lightweight Title shot. Cerrone has won seven in a row, and if he beats Makdessi, that makes it eight. That's certainly deserving of a title shot in my eyes. I guess it depends on if UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos can recover in time for when Cerrone would want to fight again. I don't think there's anyone in the division who could say they have a better claim to a title shot than Cerrone.


BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I'll be really nice and stretch Makdessi a 10% chance. It's not going to happen. Cerrone will fall into the next title shot as he stays healthy, stays active, and wins fights. I think this sets up Pettis vs Khabib in the future as well.


KALE HAVERVOLD, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I give him a puncher's chance. Only way I see him winning is if he can get the knockout. If Cerrone wins, I think it would be very hard to deny him the next title shot because of how dominant he has been over the last year and a half.


TOM STRONG, MMATORCH UK CONTRIBUTOR

Cerrone will have the height and reach advantage coming into the fight, which could be key to how the fight pans out. For Makdessi to have success he's going to have to work his way to the inside, and that'll mean eating some punches and kicks in order to do so, if he can catch Cerrone early inside the first round, where Cerrone is a notorious slow starter, he just might pull off a big upset; but the odds are very much stacked against him. I fully expect Cerrone to catch Makdessi at some point in the fight and extend that seven fight winning streak to eight. If Cerrone wins he's done more than enough to leap frog over Khabib Nurmagomedov and become the number one challenger in the UFC's lightweight division, though as we've seen before, with fighters like Cub Swanson and Dennis Bermudez, winning streaks don't always guarantee a title shot!


DAN MOORE, MMATORCH UK COLUMNIST

John Makdessi hasn't attempted and executed a single takedown in his nine previous UFC fights. That means this fight is going to remain a striking battle from the start to the very end. Finishing Renee Forte and Shane Campbell is one thing, but I don't rate his chances of doing the same to Donald Cerrone, and it's his sole path of victory. Every fighter has a chance if they land a lucky punch, but, I'll be amazed if Cerrone doesn't end this fight by TKO or submission inside the first round.