Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE: Predictions for UFC on Fox 15's Luke Rockhold vs. Lyoto Machida main event
Apr 17, 2015 - 2:35:26 PM ROUNDTABLE: Predictions for UFC on Fox 15's Luke Rockhold vs. Lyoto Machida main event

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Who wins the Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold main event at UFC on Fox 15, and how? Is the winner certain to be the No. 1 contender, or can Jacare Souza stake a claim with another decisive win over Chris Camozzi?


DAN MOORE, MMATORCH UK COLUMNIST

This is a fight I have been really looking forward to and hopefully we will be in for a treat on Saturday night. It's a fight I believe will finally catapult Luke Rockhold into the very upper echelons of the UFC roster. He was sensational against Michael Bisping last year, and even though Machida is a far tougher opponent, I think he'll do exactly the same to the Brazilian. He will play the aggressor, make Machida uncomfortable, beat him up striking, and finally submit him for the win.

In terms of who ends up as No 1 contender, here's a look at the three favourites:

Lyoto Machida – He only had a failed title shot last July, but it was very entertaining and closely fought. It's also Lyoto Machida we're talking about here. He's one of very few who can earn a title shot under any circumstance, and no one really complains. If he beats Rockhold, he gets the next shot. It doesn't matter who wins between Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort, but a win for Belfort would certainly enhance his chances even further.

Luke Rockhold – Since his loss to the physically enhanced Vitor Belfort, he's now on a three-fight win streak all against solid top 15 ranked opponents. A further win over someone like Machida will tip the edge and make him a clear favourite for the next title shot. Even if Belfort beats Weidman, it's still a fight the UFC can make, because although they (UFC) won't say it, we all know the original fight wasn't contested in fair circumstance.

Jacare Souza – Of his four UFC wins thus far, only the one over Gegard Mousasi can be considered really impressive. Yushin Okami was past his best, while Francis Carmont and Chris Camozzi were never a threat to begin with. A good win over Yoel Romero would have surely counted for a lot, and, probably led to him being the clear No 1 contender. Sadly, now Camozzi is the opponent again that scenario won't happen, however brilliant he is in victory. It will probably earn Jacare a nice performance bonus, but he needs another signature win before he fights for the title.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I'm going with Rockhold to grind Machida down and get the submission victory in the fourth round, possibly fifth. I think Machida comes out like he always does, very slowly, and that gives Rockhold a chance to impose his will. I think he takes Machida down and works him over. I hope Machida comes out ready to fight, but I sure don't expect it.
The only way the winner is assured a title shot is if it's a decisive victory. If Machida and Rockhold have a dull fight then Souza can take the title shot if he blitzes Camozzi and gets the highlight win. If Jacare comes out and smokes Camozzi, it's going to be hard to justify a title shot for someone else unless they have an equally impressive performance.


BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Jacare is a top three fighter going against a guy who shouldn't presently be in the UFC much less a co main event or a fight with an elite fighter. Camozzi has everything to gain and nothing to lose and that could make him incredibly dangerous. Jacare won't get a title shot with this win, which brings me to the main event. These two guys aren't going to put on a wrestling match, they're going to swing for the fences early and often until someone goes down. Rockhold probably possesses better wrestling than Machida, but Lyoto has also nullified and picked apart nearly every wrestler he has fought. Lyoto is fast and furious at 185 lbs., and I believe that is his key to victory. He will avoid damage and deal some of his own. I'm taking Machida with a TKO to become the top contender.


KALE HAVERVOLD, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I think Lyoto gets the knockout win. The guy is unbelievable and I don't think anyone outside of Weidman and maybe Souza will beat him at 185 lbs. I think the winner of that fight is the contender, unless its an absolute stinker of a fight and Souza lights up Camozzi fast.


TOM STRONG, MMATORCH UK CONTRIBUTOR

I've changed my mind so many times on the winner on this fight as it is so close to call; even as I write this I still haven't decided. My head says Lyoto Machida will get the job done in a style of his that can bore me to death at times, and my heart is pulling for Luke Rockhold to get the victory and earn the next title shot at the UFC belt. I'll put it out there now, I'm not Machida's biggest fan at the best of times, though I can appreciate how great he is, and what he's achieved in his career. Still, I feel it's time for fresh meat to be added to the title mix of the middleweight division, and feel Lyoto Machida is slightly over cooked.

Machida has a style of fighting that makes him very difficult not only to be beat, but to also predict what he's going to do from the first second to the last. Rockhold's striking has vastly improved of late, and will carry power in both his punches and kicks, but Machida might just be on another level to any striker he's faced before. Let's not forget Machida has very good take down defence, which might just force the fight into a stand up battle in which the advantage will lay with him.

Considering what I've said, I'm going with Luke Rockhold to come away with the victory. He will have to be at his very best to come away with the victory here but I have a feeling by hook or by crook he'll find a way to win, It'll probably come via a dodgy judging decision.

I feel a bit for Jacare Souza and the situation he finds himself in, twice now Romero has pulled the carpet from under his feet and now he's stuck with an opponent he's already beaten inside one round, which offers him nothing in return for a win. It's a lose-lose situation for Souza and one that will undoubtedly force him to fight once more before earning a title shot.

Prediction: Luke Rockhold SD


DAYNE FOX, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

Without a shadow of a doubt, the fans win. Alright, alright, I admit that is a cop out answer... even if it is likely the truth.

Luke Rockhold has been a man on a mission since Vitor Belfort sent his head into orbit, and I see his determination getting him past the elusive Machida in a manner similar to how Chris Weidman did: a back and forth slugfest with Rockhold landing just a bit more to make the difference. I am far from confident in this pick, but that is my best guess.

If Rockhold does win, I expect him to get the next title shot over Jacare based on his early victory over him. Though it occurred almost four years ago, and Jacare hasn't lost since that time while Rockhold has the loss to Belfort on his resume, I expect it to be the difference maker. I could also point out that two of Jacare's last three wins came over guys that are no longer in the UFC and while that isn't his fault, it is something the powers that be could hold over him in making their decision. If Machida wins, I expect Jacare to get the shot with little controversy considering Machida had his shot a year ago.