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Who wins the Gray Maynard-Clay Guida main event at UFC on FX 4 and how? How many fights from the title picture will the winner be?
JASON AMADI, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Gray Maynard's cardio is a major liability going into any 25 minute contest. He didn't just blow his load early against Frankie Edgar twice; this is a guy that flat out slows down in fights.
If Clay Guida were more of a submission threat, I'd pick him to stop Maynard late. But since that isn't really the case, I feel like "The Bully" will control the fight early, Guida will take over late and that this is the kind of fight that will hinge on one super close round.
Maynard is the bigger puncher, the better wrestler and the overall more dynamic fighter. Guida is super durable and well conditioned, but I think Maynard uses his wrestling and tags him with enough big shots to win enough rounds to earn a close decision.
RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Maynard should be able to keep this fight standing, and he has a pretty sizable advantage in the boxing game. That should be enough for him to ride out a tedious decision victory. A win over Guida will be a nice notch in his cap, but it isn't going to put him ahead of Nate Diaz or Anthony Pettis in the pecking order for a title shot (not to mention Eddie Alvarez...). I wouldn't be shocked if Pettis vs. Maynard happens in November. That would likely result in a Maynard victory, which might be enough to get him a title shot in the first quarter of 2013.
FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
Normally I would go with Maynard, but I just have this feeling that Guida is going to win a close decision. This should be a hotly contested fight, but I'm playing a hunch that Guida comes through. I do think the winner gets right into the mix for a title shot. I would say that the winner is only one more big win away from a title shot. So many guys in the lightweight division are neck-and-neck so it's hard to say that the winner here is too far from a title shot. I think a solid win here, coupled with another good win against a legit contender puts you right into a title fight.
ANWAR PEREZ, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
Regardless of who actually wins, they should be next in line for a title fight. Both Maynard and Guida last lost to the two men (individually) fighting for the title, so no reason this couldn't be a number one contenders bout. As far as who wins, I see Guida pulling the upset here. Guida needs to pull it out in these type of big fights, and has yet to really do much. I think he'll grind Maynard out to a solid decision and give Maynard trouble throughout all the rounds. Guida via unanimous decision.
ERIC HOBAUGH, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR
I am still puzzled that the UFC would make this matchup, though I am not surprised that Maynard would take this fight. Guida is an exciting and big name, but I give him a very small chance to beat Maynard. Guida had been the gate keeper to the division's elite fighters. His wrestling is not a good as Maynard's and neither is his stand up. I'm picking Maynard via KO in the second. If Maynard can win this one and one more against a top five fighter then he deserves another shot at the title.
BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH COLUMNIST
That's like asking me whether Michael Jordan or Shaquille O'Neill wins in a game of 1 on 1 on a basketball court. Jordan dominates with finesse over a one trick pony. Maynard is going to run through Clay Guida like Guida runs through walls in his overly corny SafeAuto commercials. This fight is going to go through the first round without question since Guida can take one heck of a beating, but in the end he will fall victim to a vicious knockout in the late second or early third round. Maynard is an absolute beast, and I'm not one to call his skills into doubt. As for how many fights from the title picture, right now everyone is like 10 fights away because of the rematches and log jam at the top of the division. The winner could be one or two fights away if its Maynard, or three atleast for Guida.
DAN MOORE, MMATORCH UK CONTRIBUTOR
Although it's a cardinal sin to ever write off Clay Guida, it's very hard to look past a win for Gray Maynard. Guida is superbly robust and extremely talented, it's just everything he does, Maynard does it that little bit better. I just hope they don't cancel each other out because this has the potential to be a fight of the year. In terms of what's next, for the winner it all depends on who wins in the Henderson vs. Edgar fight. If Maynard wins he has more chance of a title fight with Henderson being victorious. A victorious Guida however will be routing for a Frankie Edgar victory. Assuming Nate Diaz is next in line for a title shot, a Maynard wins earns him a No1 contender fight with Anthony Pettis. If Guida reigns supreme, he gets Edgar next (if Edgar loses said title fight), but if Edgar wins, not even the man upstairs could predict a next opponent for Guida in the murky world of the UFC Lightweight division (I don't want to see him lay all over Pettis again).
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