Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE: Predictions for UFC on FX 1 main event between Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller
Jan 20, 2012 - 4:00:27 PM ROUNDTABLE: Predictions for UFC on FX 1 main event between Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

Predict the outcome of the UFC on FX main event between Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller - who wins and how?

RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST


If we've learned anything from the career of Melvin Guillard it is to know better than to try to predict a Melvin Guillard fight.  From a physical standpoint, Guillard is as talented of a fighter and an athlete as we've ever seen in the sport.  But, per normal, there are a million questions about his makeup coming into yet another fight.  His most recent loss to Joe Lauzon was disheartening, because he looked like the old Guillard - sloppy, arrogant, reckless.  Those were traits that Greg Jackson had worked hard to beat out of Guillard, but he reverted to the mean against Lauzon.  Since that fight he left Jackson's camp with Rashad Evans, and is training with the Blackzillians down in Miami.  It'll be interesting to see how the loss of his strategist Greg Jackson and his striking coach Mike Winklejohn will affect his performance tonight.

If you've noticed that the analysis of this fight is solely based around Guillard, then you should probably have surmised by now that I think Guillard wins the fight if the 'good' Guillard shows up, and he'll lose if the 'bad' Guillard shows up.  Jim Miller's steady and consistent, so we know which version of Miller will be on display.  There are too many questions about Guillard right now, so I say very reluctantly... Miller by submission in the second.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR



Melvin is so erratic; he's like the Baltimore Ravens of the NFL. One fight, Melvin looks unstoppable, the next he's laying a big egg. I'm going to take a chance and say that Melvin knocks out Jim Miller in the second round. Having said that, though, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Miller smothers Melvin and submits him in the first. I've still got to go with the potential of Melvin Guillard, though.


ANWAR PEREZ, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

This should be an exciting fight between two stalwarts of the lightweight division looking to be as close as one fight away from a lightweight title fight.  I see Jim Miller taking Melvin Guillard deep into the third, and winning via unanimous decision.  This is a fight that can get fans ready for the upcoming title fight between Ben Henderson and Frankie Edgar, and possibly even solidify a spot as a top contender for an opportunity later this year.


ERIC HOBAUGH, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR



I am excited about this classic striker versus grappler match up. How many times have we seen Guillard on his way to the title only to be stopped by a choke? Five, if we are putting an exact figure on it. Josh Neer, Joe Stevenson, Rich Clementi, Nate Diaz and Joe Lauzon have all submitted Guillard on his way to his title shot. All five stoppages have come by way of chokes.  Every time this happens I am surprised because he has the most potential of all the 155 pound fighters that are not named Frankie. I think Jim Miller is an excellent grappler that will ultimately tap Guillard from a choke in the third round.


BRAD WALKER, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR


Jim Miller is an incredibly talented fighter, who has a knack for finishing fights. He has also only lost three fights in his life - to Benson Henderson, Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar – who are arguably the three best lightweights in the UFC. He can finish you with his hands, although he is more likely to submit you. After having been in the cage with some of the best in the world, it’s apparent that unless you’re an elite lightweight, Miller is going to beat you, one way or the other. It's undeniable that Miller is a stand out fighter with incredible Jiu-Jitsu. But can he beat the Young Assassin?
 
Guillard's career long Achilles heel has been his huge lack of submission defense. Eight of his nine losses have come via submission, and it's clear after his fight with Joe Lauzon that he hasn't come a long way to making that issue disappear. He's extremely explosive, with the overall strength to fight his way out of most positions on the ground, and has displayed some very impressive speed over the years. The fact is, as an all-around fighter Melvin has never been an elite lightweight. Can he pull off this win? Sure, if he lets his hands loose and keeps an eye on every move Jim Miller makes throughout the fight. It's his first chance to get into the title picture, so we will see if he seizes it.


MATT PELKEY, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

It's so hard to predict a Melvin Guillard fight. My gut tells me that Jim Miller is the better fighter, who will survive the early onslaught and use his variety of skills to slow Guillard down, put him on the mat, and choke him out. The problem is, my gut told me that before the Guillard-Evan Dunham fight as well and look how that turned out... Screw it, I'm trusting my gut. Miller wears him out, takes him down, and sinks in a fight-ending rear naked choke in the third round.