Roundtables
ROUNDTABLE: UFC 137 "Penn vs. Diaz" main event predictions - Hansen, Hyden, Carter, Hobaugh, Park, Amadi, and Ennis
Oct 26, 2011 - 5:00:13 PM ROUNDTABLE: UFC 137 "Penn vs. Diaz" main event predictions - Hansen, Hyden, Carter, Hobaugh, Park, Amadi, and Ennis

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Predict the outcome of the new main event between Nick Diaz and B.J. Penn at UFC 137.

RICH HANSEN, MMATORCH COLUMNIST


B.J. Penn by decision.  I understand that both Penn and Diaz are fantastic finishers.  Penn has finished 13 of his 16 victories for an 81% finish rate.  Diaz has finished 21 of 25, for a staggering 84% finish rate.  But as capable as both fighters are at finishing, both Penn and Diaz are nearly impossible to finish.  Penn has been stopped twice, once by TKO and once by his own corner.  Diaz has similarly been stopped twice, once by TKO and once by a doctor stoppage.  I just tell you how great both of these guys are.  That said, even as great as I think Diaz is, and as diverse as his toolbox is, everything that he does well, Penn does a little bit better.  Differently for sure, but better.  Nick Diaz's best path to victory is to batter Penn with his rapid fire jab and hook game, but I firmly believe that Penn can avoid the majority of those shots and land more powerfully and more accurately.  I would be very surprised if either Penn or Diaz try to take this to the ground.


FRANK HYDEN, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR

I think B.J. has a good shot to win if he's the focused and ready B.J., otherwise I go with Diaz winning by TKO in the 3rd round. B.J. can take a beating, and Nick can sure dish it out. I think the fight stays standing for most of the time, and Nick is more aggressive than Georges St. Pierre is, so I think he's able to actually knock B.J. out. B.J. has a chance to lure Nick in and use his aggressiveness against him, but Nick is going to be hard to finish. I think Nick takes the win in a fairly thorough fashion.




ALVIN CARTER, MMATORCH SPECIALIST


I am going to have to go with Nick Diaz.  B.J. Penn is amazing overall, but Frankie Edgar's boxing gave him a run twice.  Diaz may not be as quick as Edgar, but his boxing is superb and B.J. will most likely be a bit slower at 170 lbs.  Also, Diaz is great on the ground even though Penn has the superior ground game out of the two. There is a chance their ground games will nullify each other.  If Penn wants to show that he can stand and bang (Diaz would love that), he will probably be out pointed with a decision going to Diaz.  


ERIC HOBAUGH, MMATORCH CONTRIBUTOR



I think this fight is a much more interesting and closer fight than the GSP vs. Condit match. I think GSP would have destroyed Condit. The Penn vs. Diaz fight is one I have wanted to see for years. Their skills match up well and they have trained together.  I think Diaz wins in a razor close decision.




CHRIS PARK, MMATORCH UK SPECIALIST

This is going to be one of the fights of the year. Both have great stand up, both have world class ground/submission games, and so wherever it goes it fails to disappoint.

One or two reports are leaning towards  either of these fighters utilizing another aspect to overcome the other; but part of me feels that these two will want to put on a show for the fans by simply doing what they do best.

 I don't see either man being finished here but I am currently leaning towards Penn to take a highly exciting decision.


JASON AMADI, MMATORCH COLUMNIST

Part of the reason B.J. Penn and Nick Diaz are such exciting fighters is because they're both so aggressive in their attack and focused on doing harm to their opponent that they themselves become vulnerable.
 
B.J. Penn's cardio is always a liability. Even when he absolutely violated Joe Stevenson to claim the UFC Lightweight Championship, Penn could be seen leaning on referee Herb Dean as the decision was being read, still exhausted after only one round. It's not hard to imagine Penn fatiguing, Diaz pushing his usual breakneck pace and recording a TKO stoppage.
 
Conversely, Nick Diaz's game is almost 100% offensive. He gets tagged on the chin with regularity, and we've seen him knocked down by big punchers in the past. If Diaz face plants against Penn the way he did against Paul Daley earlier this year, his back will be taken and he'll be submitted with a quickness.
 
Because B.J. Penn has better wrestling and could likely hurt Diaz en route to his rear naked choke specialty before fatigue sets in, I'll take B.J. Penn to win by submission in the first round.


SHAWN ENNIS, MMATORCH COLUMNIST


I think when you look at the matchup from a perspective of who has the advantage in each aspect, Penn is the clear favorite.  But the one thing that bothers me about picking Penn is that, as we all know, you never know which B.J. is showing up.  And despite being one of the sport's all-time great fighters, B.J. is not at all one of the all-time great welterweights.  Penn's biggest issue at welterweight has always been and will always be cardio.  Contrast that with Nick Diaz.  Diaz is not going to give Penn a break.  He's not going to grind Penn like Jon Fitch.  He's going to bring the fight.  The trick is, that could work in Penn's favor because he's good enough in all aspects to win anywhere the fight goes.  Then again, Diaz is one of the more durable guys around, so I'm not seeing a stoppage in favor of Penn.  In this fight, I think it comes down to durability.  That's why I'm going with Diaz.  I think he does enough to wear Penn down in the second and third rounds and takes the decision.