Penick's Take
UFC 118 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Edgar vs. Penn II and Couture vs. Toney event
Aug 28, 2010 - 10:45:22 AM UFC 118 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Edgar vs. Penn II and Couture vs. Toney event

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

This preview was initially published Friday afternoon.

The UFC finally makes their Boston, Mass. debut on Saturday night with UFC 118 at the TD Garden. With a big Lightweight Championship rematch, as well as the heavily hyped debut of boxing champion James Toney, the card is set to be another highly entertaining night of fights from the organization. We've got a ton of action to cover, so let's get to the fights:

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar (UFC Lightweight Championship)

Their first bout at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi this April was a close back and forth fight contested almost entirely on their feet. Edgar used quick movement around the outside throughout the fight, popping in and out while trying to land quick combinations. Penn, meanwhile, effectively counter-punched as Edgar came after him in the five round fight.

But when the bell rang and the judges scorecards were read, the controversy began. Many writers and observers had Penn winning at least three rounds of the fight, but all three judges in Abu Dhabi scored it in favor of Edgar, including an inexplicable 50-45 score for Edgar from judge Douglas Crosby. Because of the controversy regarding the decision, we have this rematch on Saturday night.

Penn is simply the greatest 155 lb. fighter the sport has seen in its young history. He's always had the talent to be considered one of the best fighters in the world, but a seeming lack of motivation and dedication to training at times, along with a sometimes over-inflated sense of his abilities at higher weight classes, has led to some disappointing performances along the way.

Edgar, despite being one of the smaller fighters in the lightweight division, with a frame very much suited for featherweight, has been on a highly impressive run en route to holding the Lightweight Championship. His sole loss came to Gray Maynard in a fight over two years ago that saw him get outwrestled and edged on points.

But he earned his title shot in April with three straight victories in the UFC in impressive fashion. Perhaps most impressive was his win over former Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk last May, which saw Edgar outbox Sherk through all three rounds and take a dominant unanimous decision. He then choked out Matt Veach in December in the performance that earned him the shot.

He's a highly talented fighter that possesses good boxing for MMA. He's also a relentless cardio machine, very capable of fighting the full 25 minutes in this Championship fight. But Edgar's not much of a finisher. He's going to once again need to best Penn through a 25 minute fight to take home his Championship.

For Penn, one of the criticisms of their first fight was willingness stand in the center of the cage, allowing Edgar to circle and appear to be the aggressor. In this fight, he needs to stay aggressive and he needs to bring Edgar to the ground where he can utilize his jiu jitsu. That is one area that he holds a massive advantage over Edgar in, and to take his Championship back in impressive fashion he needs to bring the fight to the ground. I think we see the dominant B.J. Penn on Saturday night, and "The Prodigy" will return to Hilo once again the UFC Lightweight Champion.

PREDICTION: Penn via submission in the third round

Randy Couture vs. James Toney (Heavyweight)

James Toney finally enters the Octagon after months and months of build up. He chased UFC President Dana White from event to event earlier in the year, finally getting him to agree to this, and by all accounts he has gotten himself in shape and has taken his preparation seriously.

Randy Couture had heard enough of Toney's trash talking about MMA, and personally told White he wanted to be the one to welcome Toney to the cage should this come to fruition. It did, and this fight will actually happen.

James Toney has never been finished in near 90 professional boxing bouts, and despite criticism about the "freak show" nature of this fight he has a legitimate record in combat sports and is capable of landing a knockout blow on Couture.

The "UFC vs. Boxing" angle being played is all for show, as Toney's ability to win this fight depends on his implementation of mixed martial arts training into his defense to keep himself standing.

That's what this fight comes down to. Can Toney keep this fight on the feet and knock Couture out before "The Natural" is able to bring it to the ground? Couture is far too experienced, and his wrestling far too good for Toney to hold him off after nine months of grappling training. It's just not going to happen. Could he clip him early? Of course. But barring that, Randy Couture takes this one handily. Whether he goes for the submission or gets the TKO through ground and pound is the only question in this fight.

PREDICTION: Couture via late TKO in the first round

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard (Lightweight)

Gray Maynard is undefeated in his MMA career, save for his exhibition submission loss to Nate Diaz during The Ultimate Fighter's fifth season. A dominant wrestler, Maynard has earned his nickname of "The Bully" with a relentless top game that has seen him take decisions over some very talented lightweights, including current Champ Frankie Edgar.

Kenny Florian, meanwhile, finds himself on the cusp of a third chance at the UFC Lightweight Championship. One of the best submission fighters in the division, Florian continues to improve at an immense pace, and has done so ever since coming up short against Diego Sanchez in the finals of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter.

This fight will determine the #1 contender in the lightweight division, and deservedly so. Both fighters have the resume to earn a shot at the Champion with a win, and that adds another level to this fight.

It should be a highly competitive bout, and Maynard is certainly capable of bullying his way to a decision victory. Wrestling has been something that Florian has struggled with in the past, but he's also improved his game immensely since the last time he fought a really dominant wrestler in Sean Sherk.

Florian is the more talented fighter with more tools overall to win on Saturday night, and if Maynard can hold him down without getting submitted then more power to him. I just don't see that happening.

PREDICTION: Florian via submission in the second round.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda (Welterweight)

Maia was supposed to face Alan Belcher at Fight Night 22 in September before Belcher pulled out due to an eye injury, and so he's been moved up a few weeks to this event. He's coming off a loss to Anderson Silva on that UFC 112 card in Abu Dhabi that saw him gain fans due to Silva's antics, but at the same time he was never close to truly competing in that fight.

Miranda is getting a big opportunity with this fight, and is taking a big step up in competition. He split his first two appearances in the Octagon, losing his UFC debut against Gerald Harris by TKO in what was also his first career loss, and then rebounding to finish David Loiseau at UFC 115 in June.

Miranda's got six TKO finishes, but although Maia was knocked out by Nate Marquardt, he was also able to take some tough shots from Anderson Silva and continue moving ahead. Once on the ground, Maia's submission game might be the best in the UFC, and Miranda's going to have to contend with that. This may simply be too big of a jump for Miranda at this point, and I think Maia gets back on track in this one.

PREDICTION: Maia via submission in the third round

Marcus Davis vs. Nate Diaz (Welterweight)

Davis got himself back on track after a two fight skid in 2009 by finishing Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113 in May. But Diaz isn't Goulet.

Following three decision losses in four fights at lightweight, Diaz moved up to welterweight earlier this year and looked extremely impressive in finishing Rory Markham in the first round.

Davis is capable of winning this fight, but Diaz's striking looks better at 170 lbs. with him not needing to cut as much weight, and his ground game is excellent. After the crushing loss Davis suffered against Ben Saunders, this is a fight Diaz can win standing or on the ground.

That said, Davis is still a very good striker, and his boxing background could work to his benefit in a fight where Diaz could try to stand with him. In a night where many of the favorites are likely going to come out ahead, this is my slight upset pick of the card.

PREDICTION: Davis via TKO in the second round

====SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY CARD====

Joe Lauzon vs. Gabe Ruediger (Lightweight)

Gabe Ruediger is making his first appearance in the UFC since September of 2006, and it's quite a surprise he got this shot in the first place. Infamously kicked off of the fifth season of the Ultimate Fighter, Ruediger seemed to have burnt a bridge with the organization. A six fight win streak outside of the organization has seemingly repaired it enough to give him this opportunity.

Lauzon returned to action earlier this year well ahead of schedule after a serious knee injury sidelined him for much of 2009. However, the time off definitely had an affect on him, and his gas tank didn't hold up for him in a decision loss to Sam Stout in January.

Now, in front of a hometown crowd and (hopefully) in better shape overall, this is Lauzon's time to shine on Spike TV. Ruediger's no pushover, but he also hasn't been fighting guys like Lauzon recently. The Boston native gives the hometown fans something to cheer about here in the final sell for the pay-per-view.

PREDICTION: Lauzon via TKO in the second round

Andre Winner vs. Nik Lentz (Lightweight)

This is an excellent lightweight matchup on this undercard, bumped up from the prelims with the loss of Jorge Rivera and Alessio Sakara.

Winner came up short in the ninth season of The Ultimate Fighter, losing to Team Rough House and TUF 9 Team UK teammate Ross Pearson in the finals. But since that fight winner has picked up two straight victories.

Lentz, a product of the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, is a highly skilled wrestler, undefeated in three appearances in the Octagon. He's picked up two decision wins, and fought Thiago Tavares to a majority draw in January. Though he's gone to the judges in five of his last six fights, Lentz is a talented finisher with seven submissions and seven knockouts on his record.

Winner's finishing rate isn't quite to that level, but he remains a fast paced and talented fighter in his own right. This one should be extremely competitive, and the oddsmakers have it pegged as essentially a coin flip, but I like Lentz in this one in what should be a fun fight.

PREDICTION: Lentz via submission in the third round

====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS====

• Dan Miller over John Salter via second round submission

• Soto over Osipczak via submission in the third

• Mike Pierce over Amilcar Alves via unanimous decision

BETTING CONTEST PICKS:

$300 on Davis
$300 on Lentz
$400 on Florian