Penick's Take
UFC 117 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions of Silva vs. Sonnen event from Oakland
Aug 7, 2010 - 9:00:09 AM UFC 117 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions of Silva vs. Sonnen event from Oakland

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 117 hits pay-per-view tomorrow night, and the trash talking will finally come to an end in the main event. After months and months of buildup from Chael Sonnen, he will face off against Anderson Silva for the UFC Middleweight Championship. He'll either back up everything he's stated coming into the fight, or Silva will shut his mouth for good. It'll all take place at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, Calif., so let's get to the fights!

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (Middleweight Championship)

Chael Sonnen's time has come. After building and building his continued trash talk about Anderson Silva and anything else he felt like going after, he's got to step into the cage against "The Spider" on Saturday night. Never one to let the truth get in the way of a good story, Sonnen's continued to spout off figures about his record that anyone who wants to look knows are false.

Meanwhile, Silva has been the target of much ire and scrutiny from fans who demand to see the dominating Silva from fights against Forrest Griffin and James Irvin rather than the "dancing" and "clowning" Silva that has shown up in his past few title defenses.

But Sonnen's trash talk seems to have gotten Silva's attention, as his staredown at the pre-fight press conference can attest. But whether that equates to Silva putting on a destructive performance on Saturday remains to be seen.

Chael Sonnen is absolutely capable of bringing this fight to the ground, and he may just put Silva on his back multiple times throughout. But he's also going to need to get inside on one of the best strikers the sport of MMA has ever seen. And if he gets to the ground, he's been submitted seven times before in his career, and 25 minutes is a long time for Silva to look for a submission. Any way you look at this fight, Sonnen's in for a rough night, and ultimately his talk will have been for naught as Silva rolls through him to retain his title for a seventh straight time.

PREDICTION: Silva via KO in the first round

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves (Welterweight)

This fight pits the #2 and #3 welterweights in the world against one another in a rematch from 2006. Both fighters have gotten title shots in that time, and both have fallen in five round decisions to Georges St. Pierre.

But while that is a blemish for both fighters in the UFC, they'd both still be favorites against anyone else in the division.

Alves has improved his game dramatically since his loss to Fitch in 2006. His striking is vicious, and he's got good takedown defense despite what his fight with GSP at UFC 100 would suggest. But he hasn't fought since July of last year, and was out of action for nine months between fights before that one. Ring rust is going to be an issue.

As for Fitch, he's won four straight fights in convincing fashion with dominating decision victories in each one. A win in this fight moves him to 5-0 since his loss to GSP and will earn him a rematch should St. Pierre defeat his teammate Josh Koscheck in December.

I like Alves, and think he's definitely a good fighter, but Fitch is still more than capable of taking him down and controlling him enough to win two rounds, while being more than tough enough to survive if Thiago lands some hard punches. Fitch takes this one to get his rematch.

PREDICTION: Jon Fitch via unanimous decision

Clay Guida vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (Lightweight)

Guida's relentless with his top control game, but his high energy doesn't necessarily equate to entertainment in all of his fights. He's coming off a very impressive submission victory, but that was after suffering back to back losses to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian.

Dos Anjos himself is coming off a very impressive submission victory over Terry Etim to move his winning streak to three fights. That was after he bounced back from consecutive losses upon entering the UFC.

Guida may be able to take him down early and often, controlling him long enough to earn the decision victory, but in a toss up I think Dos Anjos can catch Guida late in the fight to earn his fourth straight win.

PREDICTION: Dos Anjos via submission in the third round

Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida (Welterweight)

Hughes and Almeida met in a grappling competition a decade ago, a match which Hughes won. Hughes has also defeated two of Almeida's friends/trainers in Matt Serra and Renzo Gracie over the last year and half. But this isn't personal for either fighter.

For Almeida, it's a chance for him to fight one of the greatest welterweights to ever fight in the Octagon in only his second fight in the weight class, while Hughes has a viable opponent against which he can prove that he's got plenty left in the tank.

Almeida is starting to gain steam after returning to MMA in 2008 following a four year hiatus. It took him a bit to get back into the groove, but his last few fights have seen him at his best. His submission victory over Matt Brown at UFC 111 was extremely impressive, and if he makes the cut better a second time at 170 lb. I like him a lot in this fight.

Hughes isn't done as a fighter, but despite his excellent wrestling and his ability to defeat jiu jitsu practitioners many times in the past, Almeida at this point is a better fighter than Gracie or Serra were in the last year when Hughes fought them. I think it should be a good grappling battle, but I think Almeida ultimately gets Hughes in a bad situation and forces the tap late in the fight.

PREDICTION: Almeida via submission in the third round

Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson (Heavyweight)

This is a highly intriguing fight between two fighters very capable of providing an explosive finish. Nelson has to know, despite his last two knockout victories, that he needs to bring this fight to the ground and test the jiu jitsu game of Dos Santos.

While "Cigano" has blasted through four of his five UFC opponents in the first round, and picked apart Mirko Cro Cop in the fifth fight through three rounds, he hasn't had to show his ground game in any of those fights. But there's no reason to believe he can't handle himself on the ground, as he rolls with the Nogueira brothers on a regular basis.

But Nelson is on a different, and proven, level on the ground. He may be more than capable of slapping on a submission and sending himself to a title shot in 2011.

Still, while I definitely give Nelson a shot (and am placing a small bet on him in the MMATorch Betting Contest), I think Dos Santos' submission defense should be sufficient enough for him to bring the fight back to the feet if it hits the ground, and that's a problem for Nelson. I'm expecting a great heavyweight fight, but I think Dos Santos takes Nelson out halfway through the fight.

PREDICTION: Dos Santos via KO in the second round

====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS====

• Tim Boetsch over Todd Brown by TKO in the second round

• Dustin Hazelett over Rick Story by submission in the third round

• Phil Davis over Rodney Wallace by TKO in the first round

• Stefan Struve over Christian Morecraft via submission in the second round

• Johny Hendricks over Charlie Brenneman via TKO in the second round

• Ben Saunders over Dennis Hallman via TKO in the third round

And for the MMATorch Betting Contest, my picks are:

$200 on Nelson
$200 on Dos Anjos
$200 on Fitch
$200 on Almeida
$200 on Hazelett