Penick's Take
UFC 116 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin event from Las Vegas
Jul 3, 2010 - 11:00:25 AM UFC 116 PREVIEW: Penick's breakdown and predictions for Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin event from Las Vegas

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

UFC 116 is finally here, and the biggest UFC Heavyweight Championship bout ever is almost upon us. The card is not necessarily the most stacked UFC event, but for what could be one of the most watched MMA cards in history it's certainly not terrible. There's a lot of action on the card, and at least one other fight than the main event with implications for the top end of a division. With that out of the way, let's get to the fights!

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (UFC Heavyweight Championship)

The big one is finally here. Brock Lesnar makes his long awaited return with Shane Carwin standing in front of him. This fight has been talked about for so long it's going to be one hell of a sight when these two behemoths are standing across the cage from one another on Saturday night.

We know the break down for these two: Lesnar is a NCAA Division I wrestling champion, a freak athlete, and the biggest draw in the sport. He has improved his game with each fight, and after healing from his near deadly battle with diverticulitis, he is expected to be completely in shape and ready for any challenge Carwin presents.

Shane Carwin is a 12-0 heavyweight, he's never left the first round in a fight, and his knockout power is well documented. A former D-II wrestling champion himself, the elder Carwin has never had to prove himself in that department in the cage.

How you view this fight comes down to what you feel about the skills of each of these fighters. Lesnar represents one of the most unbelievably athletic 265 lb. men on the planet. His wrestling background is excellent, his hands are underrated and the level of technique he brings to his fights is largely under-appreciated, if it gets recognized at all.

Carwin, meanwhile, possesses the big right hand capable of taking any of his opponents out.

I see Carwin having one way to win this fight, and that's by connecting on enough shots to put Lesnar out. Meanwhile, I think Lesnar has a lot of ways that he can win this fight. He's absolutely got power enough to rock Carwin. Gabriel Gonzaga rocked Carwin. Lesnar's got the wrestling to take this fight to the ground, and his ground game is a lot better than most will give him credit for, and is much more intricate and complicated than "being a big guy that lays on people."

The finish I'd love to see, just to show the many haters Lesnar has that it's more than just size to what he brings as a fighter, is Lesnar getting the fight to the ground and finishing with an armbar. It's not going to happen, but it's an image that brings infinite amusement. Still, Lesnar's going to be the better athlete, and I think he's the better all around fighter despite having just five fights prior to this one. Lesnar holds onto his UFC Heavyweight Championship in a great fight that ends before the third round.

PREDICTION: Lesnar by TKO in the second round

Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (Middleweight)

While Chris Leben has taken this fight on only two weeks' notice, he still represents a definite challenge for Akiyama.

Akiyama is a much more well rounded fighter, possessing an excellent Judo game and some good striking game as well. He's equally capable of outpointing Leben as he is of submitting him on the ground, but Leben's notoriously touch chin will make it hard for Akiyama to put him out.

For Leben, he's admittedly got one strategy for his fights: punch the other guy in the face. He's got one major skill, but he utilizes it very well. If that left connects, it's going to do damage and he's going to hurt his opponent. The question for this fight then becomes - will Leben connect, and can Akiyama keep him off his game enough to avoid the left hand?

The letdown of not getting the Wanderlei Silva fight could play into this one as well, but as it stands I'll take the favorite in this fight, but Leben is not a bad underdog play on the betting side of things.

PREDICTION: Akiyama via submission in the third round

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown (Welterweight)

This is an excellent fight and a rematch from a bout the two had outside of the UFC in 2006. Lytle is almost always a lock for a "Fight Night" bonus, and coming off his impressive submission victory over Brian Foster he knows he can't simply stand and trade against his opponents.

Matt Brown is coming off a tough loss to Ricardo Almeida in March, a loss that snapped a three fight win streak. He's a talented fighter, and has a dangerous striking game in his own right, but I'm not so sure that he's improved exponentially since his loss to Lytle.

This should be a really fun fight, however, and I'd expect some fireworks to get the first round under way. Eventually, though, Lytle should take the fight over, and this one could end very similarly to their first fight.

PREDICTION: Lytle via submission in the second round

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar (Light Heavyweight)

These two faced off at UFC 110 in February in a bout that ended due to a cut caused by an illegal headbutt. Bonnar had fought his way back into the contest in the third round after clearly losing the first two, but the cut halted any momentum he had hoped to gain.

I don't see any reason why this fight should go differently than the first meeting did. Bonnar's skills have deteriorated since his lengthy injury layoff, and Soszynski is now a quicker and more hard hitting fighter than Bonnar.

Krzysztof has also had a very successful run in the UFC after his time on The Ultimate Fighter. Winning three straight by stoppage in the UFC and only losing a decision to Brandon Vera is no joke, and Soszynski is simply the better fighter at this point. I don't know that he'll finish Bonnar, but he'll certainly be able to win this fight.

PREDICTION: Soszynski via unanimous decision

George Sotiropolous vs. Kurt Pellegrino (Lightweight)

This is the fight I'm most looking forward to outside of the main event, and it could be a tremendous way to kick off the pay-per-view event.

Sotiropolous is coming off his most impressive win in his career, defeating Joe Stevenson at UFC 110 in an electrifying decision, dominating the former Lightweight Title challenger for the entirety of the 15 minute fight.

Pellegrino is coming off an excellent come-from-behind win in March, where he submitted Fabricio Camoes in the second round after being in a very precarious spot in the first. The win moved his win streak to four fights and now puts him on the precipice of a UFC Lightweight Title shot.

With Sotiropolous standing at 5-0 in the UFC, the winner of this fight is likely the next in line after the Kenny Florian-Gray Maynard winner from UFC 118 in August. They may need to take one more fight in between, but a win here catapults them to being in that spot.

While Pellegrino is a great fighter, I think he's in for a really tough test against the Aussie. He's an excellent jiu jitsu fighter himself, but he's gotten himself into tough spots in fights, and if the same thing happens in this one he's not going to get out. I like Sotiropolous to impress again and move one step closer to a title shot.

PREDICTION: Sotiropolous via submission in the second round

====SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY CARD====

Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer (Heavyweight)

This is very much a striker vs. grappler match, as Tuchscherer is completely the latter and very little of the former. Schaub, as the runner up of season 10 of the Ultimate Fighter, is still learning his way through the sport, but he's a really big and extremely athletic heavyweight fighter.

Tuchscherer is a wrestler through and through, and he may be able to get Schaub to the ground in this fight. However, I don't see him keeping Schaub there through three rounds, and he's certainly not knocking Schaub out.

If Schaub can stuff enough takedown attempts and can work back to his feet when he does get taken down, it's only going to be a matter of time until he finishes this one off. He can be a devastating finisher, and we may be in for just such a finish in this one.

PREDICTION: Schaub via TKO in the second round

Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero (Light Heavyweight)

"The Silverback" gets his return to the UFC against the up and coming Romero, but he's coming in on late notice and as the underdog.

Romero is 10-1, and he's riding a five fight win streak, all by stoppage. Petruzelli himself has won four straight since getting released from the UFC in 2007, and his most famous win is still the victory over Kimbo Slice in EliteXC nearly two years ago.

This should be a competitive fight, Petruzelli certainly has the tools to pick up a win, but Romero edges it out in a tough fight.

PREDICTION: Romero via unanimous decision.

====QUICK PRELIMINARY CARD PICKS====

• Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic - Reljic via TKO in the second

• Gerald Harris vs. Dave Branch - Harris via TKO in the second round

• Daniel Roberts vs. Forrest Petz - Roberts via unanimous decision

• Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola - Madsen via unanimous decision

For the betting contest, my bets are:

$500 on Lesnar

$300 on Sotiropolous

$100 on Leben

$100 on Madsen