Penick's Take
STRIKEFORCE: HEAVY ARTILLERY PREVIEW: Penick's breakdowns and predictions for Overeem vs. Rogers event
May 14, 2010 - 2:10:53 PM STRIKEFORCE: HEAVY ARTILLERY PREVIEW: Penick's breakdowns and predictions for Overeem vs. Rogers event

DISCUSS ALL THIS IN OUR NEW MMATORCH FORUM

...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery comes to us live on Showtime Saturday night from the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Mo. Returning to St. Louis in the night's main event, Brett Rogers will be looking to duplicate the success he had in the city in June of last year, where he knocked out Andrei Arlovski in 22 seconds. Speaking of Arlovski, he makes his return to MMA for the first time since that loss on this card against Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva. There should be some very enjoyable action on this fight card on Showtime, so let's get to the fights!

Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante vs. Antwain Britt (Light Heavyweight)

Cavalcante was a highly regarded light heavyweight upon his debut in Strikeforce last June, but he suffered an upset loss at the hands of Mike Kyle that derailed his path towards the top of Strikeforce's 205 lb. division.

Britt is an 11-3 fighter who made a successful Strikeforce debut in December, as the doctor's called off the fight after the first round.

Cavalcante looked much better in his last fight against Aaron Rosa last November at Strikeforce Challengers V, picking up his seventh TKO victory in eight career wins. Cavalcante may be the more well rounded of the two, but this will be a competitive start to the night's show.

PREDICTION: Cavalcante via TKO in the second round.

Roger Gracie vs. Kevin Randleman (Light Heavyweight)

Roger Gracie's return to MMA for the first time in two years comes against Kevin Randleman in a fight that has little to no meaning.

Randleman is 3-9 over the last seven years of his career, and this could prove to be his final fight. Gracie has only two fights in his MMA career, and the last one was almost two years ago to the day.

I'm not expecting much from Randleman in this one, as he looked terrible and gassed quickly in his last fight with Mike Whitehead, and I think he'll be on the wrong end of a submission here.

PREDICTION: Gracie via submission in the first round.

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Joey Villasenor (Middleweight)

Both of these fighters made their Strikeforce debuts in 2009, with Villasenor picking up a split decision over Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos last June and Souza submitting Matt Lindland in December. For both fighters this is their first bout since those aforementioned fights.

Souza is a highly talented BJJ black belt, and with an 11-2-1 record his only loss since his debut fight was from an upkick by Gegard Mousasi in the finals of the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix.

Villasenor is riding a four fight win streak, but he's been kept out of action for a lot of reasons out of his control in long stretches over the last couple of years. They layoff affected him a bit against Santos last year, and he just edged that fight out. He's a highly experienced and fairly well rounded fighter as well, and is a formidable foe to anyone.

I think he's going to run into a lot of trouble against "Jacare," however, who is probably the second best middleweight Strikeforce has on the roster right now. I like Jacare in this one to set up a what could end up being a Title fight, though for a vacant Title with Jake Shields likely on his way out.

PREDICTION: Souza via submission in the second round.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva (Heavyweight)

Arlovski is making his return for the first time since losing in 22 seconds to Brett Rogers last June, a fight that also took place in St. Louis. For the third time in his career he has lost back to back fights, but with Fedor being the other man in this most recent string it's not necessarily something to scoff at.

"Bigfoot" Silva is the former EliteXC Heavyweight Champion, and he finally returned to the U.S. last November after serving a year's suspension fighting in Japan due to a failed steroid test. He took only his second career loss in that fight when Fabricio Werdum earned a decision victory.

This fight really comes down to whether or not Arlovski can out-box Silva while avoiding a shot to the jaw. His past two fights have been vicious KO losses, and his chin at this point is entirely questionable.

Both of these guys hit hard, and both have more than their fair share of KO victories, and this fight will be determined by who is able to connect flush and who is able to connect first. Arlovski has been working on getting a better gameplan together and by all accounts he's taking this one seriously, unlike the fight with Rogers. This one's kind of a toss up for me, but I'll take Arlovski to make a triumphant return.

PREDICTION: Arlovski via TKO in the third round.

Brett Rogers vs. Alistair Overeem (Strikeforce Heavyweight Championship)

The list of names in Alistair Overeem's "win" column in MMA isn't all that impressive. He's fought some great competition throughout his career, but against upper echelon opponents he's been defeated on multiple occasions. Making his return to the U.S. for the first time since winning the Strikeforce Heavyweigtht Title by defeating Paul Buentello in November of 2007, Overeem's out to prove that his name belongs in the top 10 of the division.

Setting aside his loss to Fedor Emelianenko, Brett Rogers is a strong, hard hitting and fairly well rounded challenger that in all honesty deserves this Title fight more than anyone outside of Fedor (and perhaps Fabricio Werdum, but he's awaiting "The Last Emporer"). From what I've been told by sources with knowledge of the situation, when Alistair had to pull out of this fight last year due to injury, Rogers was essentially promised this fight with him regardless of the outcome in the Fedor fight.

Now, had Fedor and M-1 come to terms with Strikeforce and Overeem for that fight they probably would have gone ahead with that, but Rogers certainly would have gotten the next fight following that.

But aside from the contention of Rogers getting a Title shot off a loss, the fact is he's a 10-1 fighter who holds a KO win over former UFC Heavyweight Champ Andrei Arlovski and who has destroyed most everyone put in front of him.

This could be a very violent affair, with Overeem's considerable kickboxing experience and advantage coming into play against Rogers' size, strength and heavy hands approach to the striking game. Both fighters have legitimate shots to win this fight, and while I'd like to pick Rogers in the upset, I think Overeem's out to prove a lot to the U.S. fans in this one and the Minnesotan comes up short.

PREDICTION: Overeem via TKO in the fourth round.

So that's what's on tap this Saturday on Showtime. As always we'll have live round by round coverage of the event as it airs, so stick with us here throughout the fights, beginning at 10PM ET.