Penick's Take
UFC 113 PREVIEW: Main card breakdown and Penick's predictions
May 6, 2010 - 9:56:22 PM UFC 113 PREVIEW: Main card breakdown and Penick's predictions

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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

We are just days away from UFC 113 in Montreal and the first Light Heavyweight Title fight of 2010. In fact, this marks the first significant light heavyweight fight of the year for the UFC, and the rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua is likely to be a highly entertaining bout. With the preliminary card covered yesterday, it's time to take a look at the action on the pay-per-view card, so let's get to the fights!

Patrick Cote vs. Alan Belcher (Middleweight)

Quebec native Patrick Cote makes his return to the Octagon for the first time since blowing out his knee in the third round of his Title fight against Anderson Silva, all the way back at UFC 90 in October of 2008. The lengthy recovery time has seen a lot of shakeups come to the division, and he returns intent on making a run back up the ladder.

Belcher is on a 3-1 run in his last four fights, with the sole loss being a debatable split decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100. The man with the worst tattoo in MMA enters this fight off perhaps his most impressive performance to date with a first round TKO of Wilson Gouveia in a catchweight bout that came due to Gouveia missing weight.

This is the toughest fight to call on the main card, as both have the ability to knockout or submit the other, but there's no telling how much the year and a half layoff has affected Cote. That said, I like Cote's chin in this one, and if the fight is contested on the feet he definitely has the power to put Belcher out. I'll go with the slight upset for the hometown boy to open up the card.

PREDICTION: Cote via TKO in the second round.

Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson vs. Matt "Meathead" Mitrione (Heavyweight)

It's the street fighter vs. the former NFL player in this battle of TUF 10 alums, and it's a rare fight in that Kimbo is actually the more experienced fighter entering the cage.

Meathead's got some very good power in his hands, as he showcased against Marcus "Big Baby" Jones at the TUF 10 finale in what was his professional MMA debut, but outside of that we haven't seen much out of him.

Kimbo, meanwhile, makes his pay-per-view debut after developing a massive following in bouts on free television and cable. The ratings goldmine for TUF 10, despite losing in his first round bout to eventual show winner Roy Nelson, showed signs of massive improvement in his ground game when he took on Houston Alexander at the TUF 10 finale, though both fighters gassed and fought a fairly boring fight with the exception of some nice grappling from Slice in the second round.

By all accounts, Slice continues to improve his ground game working with American Top Team, and he's even said he may look to bring the fight to the ground and submit Mitrione. That's something I want to see, and while Meathead certainly has the power to KO Kimbo, I'll go with Kimbo on the ground in a toss up.

PREDICTION: Kimbo by submission in the second round.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Sam Stout (Lightweight)

The sole lightweight fight on this Montreal card features two always exciting fighters who have had only middling success in the UFC. Both Stephens and Stout have found themselves on both sides of the winners circle in the UFC, and both have impressed fans and UFC officials alike with the way they've fought in the Octagon.

Stout has yet to finish a fight in the UFC, as all of his Octagon appearances, save for a submission loss to Kenny Florian, have gone the distance. But they've almost all been exciting, with four of them earning him a "Fight of the Night" bonus.

Stephens has simply been up and down in his Octagon career, going 4-4 in eight appearances in the organization. He's 2-2 in his last four, though his two wins in that stretch earned him "Knockout of the Night" honors.

This should be a highly entertaining scrap, but Stout is the better fighter and should be able to outwork Stephens enough through this three round bout to earn yet another entertaining decision victory.

PREDICTION: Stout via unanimous decision.

Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley (Welterweight)

This welterweight showdown was given more significance today with UFC President Dana White announcing that the winner will be the next man to face off against UFC Welterweight Champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre.

Koscheck has gotten to this point with a string of impressive performances that have been laced with disappointments along the way. He rode a five fight win streak into his first fight with GSP, but with the former Champ at that point looking to rebound after losing his Title, Koscheck dropped a unanimous decision. Still, two of the judges scorecards, Koscheck earned one of the three rounds, something that none of St. Pierre's subsequent six opponents have been able to do.

The season one Ultimate Fighter alum then began another climb up the division, going 3-1 over his next four fights with the sole loss coming to Thiago Alves in a fight he took on short notice. He entered 2009 expecting to make his way towards his first career Title shot, but then was knocked out by the debuting Paulo Thiago at UFC 95.

An injury kept him out of action for seven months, but he returned strong and finished his next two opponents in impressive fashion to end 2009 on a high note.

Paul Daley is on a four fight win streak coming into what will be his most significant fight to date. The vicious Brit striker took out both Martin Kampmann and Dustin Hazelett, both fighters that had been mid-tier contenders in the division when he finished them.

His highest profile fight before this one was his loss to Jake Shields on CBS in EliteXC back in 2008, but that fight was nearly two years ago and the Brit has improved his ground game since then. At 23-8-2, Daley's had his share of ups and downs throughout his career, but while his record isn't the greatest in the division, he's an exciting fighter that has the tools to compete with anyone at 170 lb.

This fight comes down to what Koscheck wants to do. He's got a perhaps overblown belief in his striking game that has gotten him into trouble before, and if he wants to stand and trade with Daley in this fight it could lead to a short night for him.

If instead he relies on his vastly superior wrestling to bring this fight to the ground, this is absolutely his fight to lose. He has shown a penchant for submissions at times throughout his career, and Daley is a fighter that he can very well finish on the ground. For Koscheck to win he'll need to get Daley to the ground and keep him there. If he can do that, he'll win this fight. If he wants to think his stand up is at the same level as Daley's, he'll end up staring at the lights as the Brit's hand is raised. I'm thinking he'll be smarter than that this time out.

PREDICTION: Koscheck via submission in the second round.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (Light Heavyweight Championship Bout)

The first fight between these two was a battle of tactical brilliance in the stand up game. Rua's Muay Thai attack with his leg kicks and body kicks for the first time put Machida on edge, pushing the Champion off his game for much of the fight. The Champ was able to effectively counter strike at times, but the fight became a bit of a stalemate on the feet leading to a the decision that shocked viewers everywhere.

With most believing Rua won the fight with a 3-2 round advantage at the least, the scores were read and the belt stayed around Machida's waist. With such a controversial call made by the judges that so few agreed with, this immediate rematch was a no-brainer. Of course, the rematch was slightly delayed due to Machida's hand surgery following the first fight.

Now, the two enter Montreal, Quebec, Canada this Saturday night to settle the score, and they see Rua as much more than a deserving challenger, after many didn't see him as such heading into the first meeting in October.

After showing why many had considered him the best light heavyweight in the world upon his entrance into the UFC, Shogun is now out to take the Title that he believed should have been his after UFC 104. He's likely to try to enact a similar strategy as he did the last time out, as it was the first and only time one of Machida's opponents has been able to do much effectively against him. Until that fight, Machida had never lost a round, let alone multiple rounds in a fight, and Rua will need to find a way to replicate what he did in the first fight and then some.

The difference in this fight is with Machida. He was taken out of his game in the first bout and wasn't able to fluster Shogun like he had so many opponents before him. That said, he came away from that fight with belt still around his waist, having not fought up to the level we've seen from him before.

The first meeting was not the best Machida we could have seen, while it appeared to be the best Shogun we were seeing to shake Machida and take him out of his comfort zone. Machida's not going to let that happen again, and I expect to see a much better "Dragon" in this fight. The fight did not hit the ground in the first bout, and I'm not sure that it will in this one, but I am expecting more flashes of brilliance from the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion in this fight, and I'm expecting to see a decisive finish. When it comes to that, I like the Champ to legitimately keep his belt in this fight, and leave no questions in doing so.

PREDICTION: Machida via TKO in the fourth round.

Here are my picks for the MMATorch betting contest:

$200 on Beltran
$200 on Kimbo
$400 on Machida
$200 on Cote

As always we'll have live round by round coverage of the event as it airs on pay-per-view, so join us Saturday night for that report on UFC 113: Machida vs. Rua II.

RELATED STORY: UFC 113 PREVIEW: Preliminary card breakdown and Penick's predictions: [CLICK TO READ FULL ARTICLE]